Interesting - I’d have to assume that on-target % is closely related to, if not equal to, the sum of “Accurate” and “Accurate Plus” from that article; this might be leading to the discrepancy we are seeing between the two sources. It’s hard to tell because PFF only shared the top 5 from each category and there’s no overlap between the two top-5’s, which makes sense since throwing more “Accurate Plus” throws means you throw less “Accurate” (and other types of) throws. If you have a subscription and can access the full data set, would love to chat more - DM me on Twitter at @cgsmith11194 :)
I have a friend that has it and I’ll see if they can send the data.
That being said, Dak is 8th all-time in completion %. Completion % isn’t everything since it’s also a WR stat and a scheme stat, of course.
However, unlike TD/INT ratio, which is a stat that is distinctly different across eras (14 of the top 17 QBs were drafted 2010 or later), completion % has more QBs from the 2000s era of QBs.
Dak generally does really well in CPOE and depth-adjusted EPA/play. So good in fact that Ben Baldwin named his weighted version of these two metrics after him, calling it DAKOTA.
I’ve always thought of Dak as “Accurate, but not precise”. He’s throws a consistently accurate ball that is an easy to medium difficulty catch, but he’s not super precise with the ball placement and is a big reason why the cowboys don’t get a lot of yards after the catch.
I signed up for a free trial because curiosity got the best of me and I had time today. There’s good news and bad news for your argument:
Good news: upon reviewing the report, “Accurate Plus” is a subset of “Accurate,” so Dak was indeed the third-most accurate QB last year according to PFF.
Bad news: PFF’s definition of accuracy is really just a drop-adjusted completion rate that also excludes batted passes, throwaways, and other similar plays - see link below.
I went back to NextGenStats since you mentioned CPOE, and they have Dak ranked 11th in 2022 out of QBs with a minimum of 200 attempts, which is in the middle of his on-target rate performance + what PFF calls accuracy. A lot of it depends on how you slice it, and of course Stroud hasn’t played at all in a meaningful NFL game yet (we will see tomorrow!), but now knowing what’s “under the hood” of PFF’s accuracy score, I don’t think it tells the story accurately.
Great points - the PFF article backs you up on “accurate, but not precise” to the extent that Dak led the league in “inaccurate but catchable” throws.
I got yelled at a lot on r/DynastyFF in our thread there yesterday and don’t want to get too far down the completion % rabbit hole again as a result, but since you brought it up, CJ Stroud (who is mentioned in the tweet above) had a CP of 69.3% in his college career. I know you can’t fairly compare that to Dak’s 66.6% career NFL CP, but his CP at Mississippi State was under 63%, and you can’t blame the SEC for that because Will Rogers (current QB at Dak’s alma mater) has a career CP above 70%. Just sharing a few #s since we’re on the topic, but I agree that it’s an ineffective and incomplete metric. Only time will tell!
If you get a hold of that data, would love to chat further :)
According to the data (link below), Dak has performed quite middlingly; he ranked 13th in 2021 and 14th in 2022 in on-target % among QBs with more than 200 attempts. When you visit the link, sort by on-target % and move the lower filter for attempts up to 200.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-quarterbacks-accuracy-category-aaron-rodgers-dak-prescott
Interesting - I’d have to assume that on-target % is closely related to, if not equal to, the sum of “Accurate” and “Accurate Plus” from that article; this might be leading to the discrepancy we are seeing between the two sources. It’s hard to tell because PFF only shared the top 5 from each category and there’s no overlap between the two top-5’s, which makes sense since throwing more “Accurate Plus” throws means you throw less “Accurate” (and other types of) throws. If you have a subscription and can access the full data set, would love to chat more - DM me on Twitter at @cgsmith11194 :)
I have a friend that has it and I’ll see if they can send the data.
That being said, Dak is 8th all-time in completion %. Completion % isn’t everything since it’s also a WR stat and a scheme stat, of course.
However, unlike TD/INT ratio, which is a stat that is distinctly different across eras (14 of the top 17 QBs were drafted 2010 or later), completion % has more QBs from the 2000s era of QBs.
Dak generally does really well in CPOE and depth-adjusted EPA/play. So good in fact that Ben Baldwin named his weighted version of these two metrics after him, calling it DAKOTA.
I’ve always thought of Dak as “Accurate, but not precise”. He’s throws a consistently accurate ball that is an easy to medium difficulty catch, but he’s not super precise with the ball placement and is a big reason why the cowboys don’t get a lot of yards after the catch.
I signed up for a free trial because curiosity got the best of me and I had time today. There’s good news and bad news for your argument:
Good news: upon reviewing the report, “Accurate Plus” is a subset of “Accurate,” so Dak was indeed the third-most accurate QB last year according to PFF.
Bad news: PFF’s definition of accuracy is really just a drop-adjusted completion rate that also excludes batted passes, throwaways, and other similar plays - see link below.
I went back to NextGenStats since you mentioned CPOE, and they have Dak ranked 11th in 2022 out of QBs with a minimum of 200 attempts, which is in the middle of his on-target rate performance + what PFF calls accuracy. A lot of it depends on how you slice it, and of course Stroud hasn’t played at all in a meaningful NFL game yet (we will see tomorrow!), but now knowing what’s “under the hood” of PFF’s accuracy score, I don’t think it tells the story accurately.
https://www.pff.com/news/signature-stats-accuracy-percentage
Great points - the PFF article backs you up on “accurate, but not precise” to the extent that Dak led the league in “inaccurate but catchable” throws.
I got yelled at a lot on r/DynastyFF in our thread there yesterday and don’t want to get too far down the completion % rabbit hole again as a result, but since you brought it up, CJ Stroud (who is mentioned in the tweet above) had a CP of 69.3% in his college career. I know you can’t fairly compare that to Dak’s 66.6% career NFL CP, but his CP at Mississippi State was under 63%, and you can’t blame the SEC for that because Will Rogers (current QB at Dak’s alma mater) has a career CP above 70%. Just sharing a few #s since we’re on the topic, but I agree that it’s an ineffective and incomplete metric. Only time will tell!
If you get a hold of that data, would love to chat further :)
Isn’t Dak like one of the most consistently accurate QBs in history?
According to the data (link below), Dak has performed quite middlingly; he ranked 13th in 2021 and 14th in 2022 in on-target % among QBs with more than 200 attempts. When you visit the link, sort by on-target % and move the lower filter for attempts up to 200.
https://www.fantasylife.com/tools/passing-accuracy