Alright, Let's Fall For Sean Tucker

OOOOOOoooOOOOWEEEEEEEEE!!!

We got FOOTBALL today! This is it. After weeks of staring at our rosters, imagining what could be, getting giddy about all that potential, today, we finally get to start seeing all those hope at dreams begin to crumble before our eyes.

Good luck to you all, this season.
Now let’s get to the headlines.

Analysis & Hype:

Every WR since 2010 to average 15+ PPG as a rookie has posted at least 1 top 12 finish. Except Brandon Aiyuk – who averaged 15.4 PPG as a rookie & has yet to finish Top-12.

Camp reports the last few years:
• 2020 - Justin Jefferson in line to be the WR3.
• 2021 - Ja’Marr Chase drops the ball.
• 2022 - Treylon Burks running with 2nd & 3rd team.
• 2023 - Atlanta beat reporters saying Kyle Pitts is the 4th receiving option in the offense.

Every WR drafted Top-10 since 2000 who put up 850+ receiving yards as a rookie put up 1,000+ yards in YR2 (except Justin Blackmon). Drake London goes in round 8+ on some platforms.

Sean Tucker had a 95th percentile college target share.

Sean Tucker’s Percentiles in Yards per Team Play
• Freshman: 90th
• Sophomore: 96th
• Junior: 76th

Great piece on /R/DynastyFF: “2023 Rookie Stock Watch Start of Season Rankings”

Travis Etienne in five drives with Trevor Lawrence this preseason:
• 67% snaps
• 65% rush attempts
• 63% route participation
• 67% of short-down-distance
• 67% of long-down-distance

Patrick Mahomes' career Week 1 passing lines:
256-4-0
378-3-0
211-3-0
337-3-0
360-5-0

Travis Kelce was on 21.4% of Championship teams on ESPN last year – more than any WR.

Wide Receivers to post Back-to-Back 20+ PPG Seasons:
• Odell Beckham Jr
• Calvin Johnson
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Antonio Brown
• Davante Adams
• Cooper Kupp

Last season Darren Waller finished top 5 in:
• Yards per Target
• Yards per Reception
• Average Depth of Target
• Deep Targets
• Air Yards Share

Darren Waller has 5+ targets in 32 of his last 33 games where he’s played more than 50% of the snaps.

Vikings personnel groupings before/after the TJ Hockenson trade.

Dalton Kincaid's preseason alignment:
• 45% inline
• 43% slot
• 10% out wide
• 3% backfield

If Kelce's out, then Jerick McKinnon is a flex in PPR. Last year, McKinnon had 6 games w/ at least 6 targets & he averaged 19.5 PPR points per game in those outings. He was aided by 6 TDs over that span, but only one time did he fail to score at least 10.4 PPR points when targeted that often.

In eight career games with at least 12 carries, Khalil Herbert has at least 10 PPR points six times and 15-plus PPR points five times. One of those was against the Packers in 2021 when he had 19 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 15 yards on three targets.

For as much as we love talking about Pete Carroll's obsession with running the ball, he (and Geno Smith) somewhat broke away from that last year.
2021:
• Early Down Pass Rate (48.3%, 24th)
• PROE (-1%)
2022:
• Early Down Pass Rate (59.2%, 5th)
• PROE (+2%)

David Njoku is poised for a big game in Week 1
CIN 2020/2021: 7th and 6th most FPPG allowed to TEs
CIN last year:
• 13th in FPPG allowed to TEs
• 7th most rec yds per game
• 7th most fppg allowed to slot TEs
• vs. Njoku (with Watson): 7-59-1

James Conner scored 6 TD’s in the 5 games he played with Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley, & David Blough at QB last year.

Rams target per-route rates with Cooper Kupp on/off the field over the last two seasons:
Van Jefferson
• Kupp on -- 15.2%
• Kupp off -- 16.5%
Tyler Higbee
• Kupp on -- 19.7%
• Kupp off -- 24.7%

On plays where Cooper Kupp was off the field and Tyler Higbee was on the field, Higbee had:
• 190 routes (roughly 6.3 games)
• 25% target share
• 42% red zone target share
• 76 PPR points ≈ 12 PPR per game

Dalton Schultz finished as a Top 5 Tight End in Fantasy Points seven times in 2022; each of those 7 games came from Week 8 onward. He is now in Houston with a more accurate Quarterback, and no CeeDee Lamb...

Geno Smith is the only QB who finished Top-8 in PPG last year (other than Kyler Murray) priced outside of the Top-12 this year. He’s also 1 of just 4 QB’s who has three pass-catchers with Top-75 ADP’s this year.

96% of WRs with 140+ Targets have finished as a Top 24 Fantasy WR since 2000; 186/250 (74%) finished in the Top 12. Diontae Johnson has hit 140+ Targets in three straight seasons.

Rhamondre Stevenson (& Alvin Kamara) were the only RB’s with 275+ touches last year to not score double-digit TD’s.

Saquon Barkley's receptions from college thru rookie year
• Fr: 20
• Soph: 28
• Jr: 54
• (102 NCAA career total)
• NFL Rookie: 91
Christian McCaffrey
• Fr: 17
• Soph: 45
• Jr: 37
• (99 NCAA career total)
• NFL Rookie: 80
Jahmyr Gibbs
• Fr: 24
• Soph: 36
• Jr: 44
• (104 NCAA career total)

DJ Moore was 2nd in yards after the catch this preseason with 90 yards of YAC… He managed to do this while only having two receptions.

Cold Water:

Only 1 of Sean Tucker’s 19 rushes on 1st/2nd down this preseason went for an efficient gain. A 5.3% success rate that was dead last among all RBs.

Trevor Lawrence had an NFL-worst 2.6% check-down throw percentage (min 100 dropbacks). Travis Etienne didn't catch more than 3 balls in a game all season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 4.80 YPRR where the primary defender was not a DB, and 1.94 YPRR when facing a DB.

Last season, 11 teams didn't play their starting QBs in pre-season and their Week 1 records were 3-8. This season there were 8 teams.

Despite finishing 7th in success rate on RB carries from Week 5 on, the Bengals finished dead last in RB runs of 10+ yards. 22 of them all season, Joe Mixon’s explosiveness needs to go up.

At the goal line, Buffalo ranks:
• #31 in TD rate
• #31 in points/drive
• #32 in efficiency/play

Without Kelce, Patrick Mahomes’ productivity suffers dramatically
• Yards per attempt: 8.2 with vs. 7.2 without
• Total QBR: 79 with vs. 65 without
• Air yards per attempt: 8.0 with vs. 6.1 without

Justin Fields has thrown six interceptions in four games against the Packers.

Alexander Mattison has recorded negative RYOE the past two seasons (-42 in 2022 and -72 in 2021), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

The Fun Stuff:

Oh, so my mom was just trying to motivate me?

The Patriots released the audio of Tom Brady's first conference call with reporters after New England selected him with pick No. 199 in 2000.

Audition tapes for the ManningCast's third host.

Even the janitors in KC are better play callers than Matt Canada.

Waiver Weapons:

Waiver Weapons is a new segment we’re trying out where the three of us each share a player that is on most league’s waiver wires that we think you could start that week, or are interesting stashes.

Camaron’s pick: Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL (20% rostered on Sleeper) - Dallas targeted Tight Ends 130 times last season. That was 8th highest in the league. With Schultz gone, Ferguson has a chance to step up as a year two tight end on a good offense.

Chris’ pick: Luke Musgrave, TE, GB (25% rostered on Sleeper) - I also chose a TE this week in support of #TeamKelce, and went with Musgrave because of a) his stellar performance during the preseason (89% route participation with 38% target share in Week 2 with the starters) + b) the fact that Watson and Doubs are both seriously questionable to play Sunday. The upside’s there either way, but with either (or both) of those guys out, Musgrave is a top streaming option.

Will’s pick: Tutu Atwell, WR, LAR (3% rostered on Sleeper) - Disclaimer: This one is for deeeeeeeeeeeeeeep leagues where waiver targets are tough to come by. But with Kupp sidelined, Tutu will be the WR2 for the rams this week and is going into his third year after showing some signs of life later in his sophomore season.

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