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Welcome back!

As a trade addict, the deadlines are one of my least favorite parts of the season. As far as I’m concerned, they shouldn’t exist at all in Dynasty leagues, and should only apply to eliminated teams in redraft.

Thanks for coming to my Ted talk.

-Will

Analysis & Hype:

“Despite putting up a Krispy Kreme Donut in Week 10, Mike Gesicki sits as TE3 in PPR formats ——and get this, he’s only scored TWO touchdowns this season. THAT is what you wanted at TE in 2021 if you didn’t get ‘the big 3’”

Mike Gesicki is 2nd in the league with most receptions without a drop.

“Dan Arnold’s usage continues to be elite for a TE. Target share last 5 weeks:
Week 6: 24%
Week 7: 12%
Week 8: 19%
Week 9: 27%
Week 10: 20%”

Hunter Renfrow:
WR26, 13.9 fppg.
WR14 over the last 4 weeks (3 gm).
WR24 in targets (69 total, 7.7/gm).
7 red zone targets in last 3 games.
WR11 finish each of the last 2 weeks.
Top12 Strength of schedule ROS.

Deebo Samuel leads all WRs with 256 receiving yards after contact. Nobody else has more than 200.

Deebo Samuel this season:
979 receiving yards, 2nd-most by any player through 9 games in 49ers history (1990 Jerry Rice had 1,006).
517 yards after catch, the most by any player through 9 games since 2012 Percy Harvin.

Week 10 RB Leaders by Fantasy Points
1. Darrel Williams (29.4)*
2. Rhamondre Stevenson (27.4)*
3. AJ Dillon (26.8)*
4. Christian McCaffrey (26.1)
5. Jonathan Taylor (24.6)
6. D'Ernest Johnson (22.7)*
7. Antonio Gibson (21.8)
8. Mark Ingram (20.8)*
*backup to injured RB1

Jonathan Taylor is averaging 6.9 YPC against stacked boxes (20% of runs)
Notable players above him:
Javonte Williams - 11.4 (5%)
Kareem Hunt - 8.1 (16%)
AJ Dillon - 7.5 (8%)

“Rashod Bateman hasn’t hurt Marquise Brown whatsoever; The Real Hollywood Avging 13 targets since Bateman’s return.”

Top 5 and Bottom 5 receivers at getting open vs single man coverage as charted by PFF's data team.

Mac Jones, QB, Patriots per @PFF:
+ Highest-graded QB since Week 5 (91.2)
+ Highest-graded rookie QB since 2014 (87.0)
+ Earned a 95.8 PFF Grade in 2020, the highest they've ever awarded to a QB since they started grading NCAA players in 2014

Highest fantasy points per snap
2021 - Cordarrelle Patterson (0.59)
2021 - Rhamondre Stevenson (0.58)
2020 - Alvin Kamara (0.57)
2019 - Austin Ekeler (0.52)
2018 - Austin Ekeler (0.53)
2017 - Alvin Kamara (0.67)

“The highest weekly RB opportunity share so far this season?
D’Andre Swift with 63.9% in Week 10 vs Pittsburgh.
I doubt he gets close to this again but it’s still crazy to see Swift receive 39 (!!) opportunities in 1 game.”

Justin Fields quietly has back to back top-10 FF weeks.

“Najee Harris has a full 90(!) more snaps played than Ezekiel Elliott, who is in second place with 450, and 133 more than overall RB1 Jonathan Taylor, who has played one more game than Harris.”

Justin Jefferson joins OBJ as the only two players in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 games of 100 or more receiving yards in first 25 of career.

Thread on /r/fantasyfootball: “What start of the season assumptions did you have that turned out to be totally false?”

Reddit Adjusted Trade Values Week 11 on /r/fantasyfootball.

Thread on /r/Dynastyff for all the dynasty nuts: early 2022 rookie RB rankings.

Cold Water:

“Christian McCaffrey Rushing TDs-
33 career games w/ Cam Newton: 11 TDs
23 career games w/o Cam Newton: 18 TDs
CMC is worse in nearly every statistical category with Cam on the field...”

Quarterbacks with the most Interceptable passes this year:
Trevor Lawrence 30
Taylor Heinicke 26
Ben Roethlisberger 24
Jalen Hurts 23
Ryan Tannehill 21
Carson Wentz 21
Patrick Mahomes 20
Matthew Stafford 20

Courtland Sutton has 5 catches in 3 games since Jerry Jeudy’s return.

Mike Williams’ deep targets (15+ air yards) per game:
Weeks 1-5 – 3.2 (fourth-most)
Weeks 6-10 – 1 (67th)
His season splits:
Weeks 1-5: WR2
Weeks 6-10: WR80

T.J. Hockenson fantasy points (PPR):
• Weeks 1 & 2: 46.3
• Weeks 3-10: 60.5

“Been an awful year for Myles Gaskin. Just 4.0 yards from scrimmage per touch, 33rd among 34 qualified RB. Only Ingram and Davis are worse in 2021.”

Potential Trade Targets:

WR Strength of Schedule for Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17):
Easiest:
1) Devonta Smith
2) Jaylen Waddle
3) Deebo / Aiyuk
4) Diontae Johnson
5) Corey Davis / EMoore
Hardest:
28) Stefon Diggs
29) Russell Gage
30) Jarvis Landry
31) Terry McLaurin
32) Jerry Jeudy / Sutton

RB Strength of Schedule for Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17):
Easiest:
1) James Robinson
2) Javonte / MGIII
3) D'Andre Swift
4) David Montgomery
5) Darrell Henderson
Hardest
28) Dalvin Cook
29) Alvin Kamara
30) Josh Jacobs
31) Pats RBs
32) Christian McCaffrey

TE Strength of Schedule for Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17):
Easiest:
1) Logan Thomas (or RSJ)
2) Tyler Kroft
3) Noah Fant
4) Austin Hooper
5) Adam Trautman
28) Dalton Schultz
29) Dawson Knox
30) TJ Hockenson
31) Mike Gesicki
32) Kyle Pitts

QB Strength of Schedule for Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17):
Easiest:
1) Jalen Hurts
2) Big Ben
3) Jimmy G (Trey Lance? Plz?)
4) Aaron Rodgers
5) Mike White?
Hardest:
28) Mac Jones
29) Lamar Jackson
30) Matt Ryan
31) Pat Mahomes
32) Cam Newton

The Eagles have been leading the NFL in rushing since week 8 with 30.3 rush attempts per game, vs the Titans in 2nd with 27.5. Nick Sirianni says that if Miles Sanders is healthy, he’s the starter.

“182 player sample: Kadarius Toney ranks 7th in yards per route run (2.44, PFF). Only guys with more: Deebo, C-Patt, Kupp, Adams, AB and Chase. That's it.
Toney's 34 targets this season are tied for 99th in the NFL.”

These next ones are more for dynasty where his future as a starter seems to be in doubt, because no one is trading Jalen Hurts in redraft right now:

“Jalen Hurts is currently 15th in the NFL in on-target throws. He is 7th best in "bad throws", which is a combination of accuracy/decision making.”

“Jalen Hurts has had more weeks as a Top 12 QB than any other player in the NFL this season. He keeps getting better and has been the best value amongst QB in fantasy this season.”

Nick Sirianni on Jalen Hurts “He's still in his rookie season essentially, if you count the amount of games started. All I see is improvement every day from him. I just see his arrow completely pointed up. He doesn’t make the same mistake twice”

Most QB1 games this season:
9- Hurts
8-
7-
6- Prescott, Cousins, Mahomes, Brady
5- Carr, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Stafford, Heinicke

“Jalen Hurts says he’s developed a relationship with Peyton Manning, a QB he’s watched and tried to learn from.” I don’t care if this is just fluff — I’m buying it.

Dalvin Cook has been tackled at the 1-yard line a league-leading five times this season and then did not score a touchdown afterwards.

“Rashod Bateman's 27.7% (No. 17) Target Rate indicates Lamar Jackson looks towards Bateman when on the field. Bateman averages 2.39 (No. 18) Yards Per Route Run. That's ahead of notable receivers such as Tyler Lockett at 2.34, Jerry Jeudy at 2.33, and Brandin Cooks at 2.27.”

“DeAndre Carter has played over 65% of the snaps in three of his last five games
In those three games (per game):
26 routes run
6.7 targets (3 total RZ)
26% TPRR
95.3 air yards 👀
56.3 receiving yards
2 total carries
2 total TDs
100% flex-worthy in Week 11”

“A.J. Brown was awarded 13 singe-man coverage looks by the Saints yesterday.
He got open on six of those (46%) but Ryan Tannehill only targeted him on one of them.
He was also open on 63% of his routes of 10 or more yards.
Bad boxscore day, but strong underlying performance.”

“Paging: Justin Herbert
Throw Mike Williams the damn ball.
Defeated single-man coverage 15 of 25 opportunities (60%) yesterday and only saw 5 targets.
Defeated press-single-man coverage six of nine times (67%).
Was open on 80% of routes 10-plus yards downfield.”

The Fun Stuff:

Tweet of the week: “Since NFL football sucked today, I decided to look at every head coach and decide what they would be if football didn't exist, based solely on their looks...”

First look at Cam Newton in a Carolina Panther’s jersey.

“David Tepper is current paying Cam’s replacement, the replacement for Cam’s replacement, and Cam to replace the replacement for his own replacement.”

Zach Wilson’s rehab appears to be ahead of schedule.

This was pretty fun to watch: “Tavon Austin has some of the best college highlights. #Colts RB Nyheim Hines couldn’t believe that he got to meet him last week.”

“Allen Lazard “crowned” Davante Adams a bunch last year. On Sunday, it was AJ Dillon’s turn. “I gotta crown the quads.””

Baker Mayfield seeing that Stafford pick to OBJ

Rashod Bateman’s “Arrogant Hands”

My wife when I explain why my fantasy team is the best in the league despite my 3-6 record:

“I’M BAAAAAAACK” -Cam Newton

Alex Smith’ TED talk: An NFL quarterback on overcoming setbacks and self-doubt.

Deebo Samuel with the largest chain of all time.

D'Andre Swift with the Detroit Lions.

“Belichick claimed another soul.”

Bill Belichick on the Patriots traditionally playing their best football late in the year: "Believe it or not, we try to play well all the time."

This Peyton and Eli interaction.

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