Positive Royce Freeman stats?
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Rashee Rice is playing so well he might get more than 70% of snaps in week 13. What a time to be alive.
We got a lot of good headlines for you this week. Let’s get into it.
Analysis & Hype:
Most TEAM tight end PPR fantasy points this season:
1. Vikings
2. Chiefs
3. Falcons (Insert punching wall gif)
Rashee Rice
• First Chiefs rookie WR with 100+ rec yds since Dwayne Bowe in 2007
• First Chiefs WR with 100+ rec yds since Wk 7 last year
• Mahomes: highest passer rating in NFL when targeting Rice (138) - 9.6 yds/att, 5 TD, 0 INT when targeting Rice
Career Games:
• Skyy Moore - 27
• Rashee Rice - 11
Career Yards:
• Skyy Moore - 489
• Rashee Rice - 527
TE Route Participation Week 12:
• 90% — Cade Otton
• 88% — Tucker Kraft
• 85% — David Njoku
• 85% — Juwan Johnson
• 85% — Jake Ferguson
• 83% — Isaiah Likely
• 82% — George Kittle
• 82% — Travis Kelce
• 82% — Trey McBride
• 82% — Evan Engram
• 80% — Sam LaPorta
• 70% — Dalton Kincaid
• 67% — Kyle Pitts
Pat Freiermuth in the first game since the coordinator change in Pittsburgh:
• 9 catches (career-high)
• 11 targets (second most ever)
• 120 receiving yards (career-high)
This week Keenan Allen’s twelfth career game with 12+ catches, which sets a new NFL record. The previous record was held by Keenan Allen with 11 such games. Prior to that, the record-holder was Keenan Allen with 10 such games.
RB route participation Week 12:
• 82% — Jahmyr Gibbs
• 82% — CMC
• 79% — Rachaad White
• 77% — Jerome Ford
• 74% — Devin Singletary
• 72% — Zach Charbonnet
• 68% — Isiah Pacheco
Season-long target per route run rate leaders at TE:
• 27.2% — Travis Kelce
• 26.5% — T.J. Hockenson
• 26.0% — Trey McBride
Rhamondre Stevenson has gained 100+ total yards in three straights games after failing to reach that even once in Weeks 1-8.
Royce Freeman is now the No. 1 running back in the NFL by Next Gen's Rush Percent Over Over Expected Rate (success rate).
Most rushing TDs since 2021:
1. Jalen Hurts (34)
T2. Austin Ekeler (29)
T2. Derrick Henry (29)
The Steelers had >400 yards of offense in the last game they played before Matt Canada became the OC. Then they never had >400 yards of offense in his 44 games as OC and then in their first game without him they had >400 yards of offense.
Since Dallas Goedert has been injured, the Smith/Brown dynamic has changed. A.J. Brown only has 4 rec for 45 yards and a TD vs Devonta Smith has 15 rec for 205 yards and a TD.
Mike Evans having (another) awesome season:
• 10th among 65 qualifying WRs in yards per route
• 11th in PPR points per game
• Top-24 WR in 7 of 10 games
Mike Evans when inside the opposition's 10-yard line: 43 receptions, 42 receiving TDs. His 97.7% TD rate is 1st among all players since he entered the league (min 25 catches).
Aaron Rodgers had 2,599 passing yards and 21 total touchdowns through his first 11 games as the starter. Jordan Love has 2,599 passing yards and 21 total touchdowns through his first 11 games as the starter.
Dak Prescott completed 7 of 12 passes for 189 yards and 3 TDs targeting vertical routes against the Commanders. Prescott has now thrown 16 TDs targeting vertical routes this season, 14 of which have come since Week 8 (both the most in the NFL).
Dak Prescott has an 80.7 QBR since Week 6. Nobody else is over 68.
Only 2 QBs finished HIGHEST in Big Time Throw % and LOWEST in Turnover Worthy Play % in the same season (min. 200 drop backs)
2016 - Tom Brady
2009 - Phil Rivers
So far:
2023 - Dak Prescott
Garrett Wilson, despite Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle, is still on pace for 99 catches, 1074 yards, 4.6 TDs.
Jaylen Warren has the Triple Crown. Per Fantasy Points Data, among 50 qualifying RBs, he ranks 1st in:
• Explosive Run Rate (runs for 15+ yards)
• Missed tackles forced/attempt
• Yards after contact/attempt
Jalin Hyatt’s 24.4 yard average target depth is more than five yards higher than any other player in the NFL with a minimum of 25 targets.
The NFL's leader in TD% (TD per attempt, min. 100 attempts) is Tommy DeVito at 6.6%.
Kyren Williams in 7 games played this season:
• RB9 or better in 71% of games (5/7)
• RB4 or better in 57% of games (4/7)
His past 2 games?
• 42 touches
• 362 total yards
• 3 TD’s
• 8.36 YPC
• Finished as the RB3 and RB1
Kyren’s only 23 years old
Most wins for coach-QB combo at Allegiant Stadium:
• Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes 4
• Jon Gruden-Derek Carr 4
• Josh McDaniels-Derek Carr 4
Receiving Yards this season
• Tyreek Hill 1,324
• Every Patriots WR 1,273
• Every Falcons WR 1,147
• Every Jets WR 1,126
Cold Water:
CJ Stroud has more 450-yard games than Bryce Young has 250-yard games.
Texans Tight Ends in Week 12:
Dalton Schultz:
• 29 snaps
• 23 routes
• 2 targets
Brevin Jordan
• 26 snaps
• 19 routes
• 2 targets
35 RBs with 100+ carries this season. Austin Ekeler now ranks:
• 28th in YPC (3.8)
• 30th in success rate (29.5%)
• 33rd in explosive run rate (5.4%)
• 30th in 1D/TD rate (16.1%)
• 3.6 rec/game is his fewest since 2018.
Sam Howell Pacing for over 4,700 yards and 26 passing TDs:
• Terry McLaurin: Fantasy WR37 per game
• Curtis Samuel: Fantasy WR50 per game
• Jahan Dotson: Fantasy WR57 per game
Even with Mike Williams & Josh Palmer out, Round 1 rookie Quentin Johnston only ran a route on 39% of dropbacks last night. QJ down to 0.72 yards per route run. That's 99th out of 102 qualifying WRs.
Cooper Kupp 2021-2022:
• 76.1% catch rate
• 9.5 yards per target
Cooper Kupp 2023:
• 52.9% catch rate
• 7.7 yards per target
Patrick Mahomes has a career high completion % this season (68.1%) despite leading the league in dropped passes (26).
Most passing yards lost from dropped passes per Fantasy Points Data:
1) Patrick Mahomes – 290 yards lost due to drops
2) Jordan Love – 216
3) Lamar Jackson – 175
Mahomes only lost 302 yards off of drops across all of last season.
Breece Hall is 43rd out of 47 qualifying RBs in NFL NextGenStats success rate.
Jevon Holland’s pick-6 at the end of the 1st half was the first pick six on a Hail Mary pass since at least 2006.
Jerry Jeudy doesn't have a weekly PPR finish better than WR29 this season.
Lions RBs yesterday in a game they trailed entire way:
• Snaps: Jahmyr Gibbs 60, David Montgomery 23
• Routes: Gibbs 42, DMont 7
• Opportunities: Gibbs 19, DMont 16
Jared Goff comp % when under pressure:
2023: 8th
2022: 33rd
2021: 30th
2020: 23rd
2019: 24th
2018: 25th
2017: 26th
2016: 24th
DaRon Bland has been targeted 59 times this season. Those passes have yielded a passer rating 3 points worse than just throwing the ball at the ground 59 times instead, and a net negative of 4 TDs to the offense.
DaRon Bland has more TDs this season than Kyle Pitts has in his career.
Some other guys DaRon Bland has more TDs than:
• Tony Pollard
• Derrick Henry
• Joe Mixon
• Alvin Kamara
• Najee Harris
• Davante Adams
• DK Metcalf
• Calvin Ridley
• Terry McLaurin
In high school, Jets starting QB Tim Boyle threw an INT once every 24 attempts. At UConn he threw an INT every 21 attempts. At Eastern Kentucky he threw an INT every 15 attempts. And in the NFL he's thrown an INT every 13 attempts.
Tim Boyle has a 7.5% INT rate in the NFL. (League average is around 2.3%.) And he had a 4.7% INT rate in college.
Entering today, NFL teams were a combined 57-0 over the last 25 regular seasons when having a game with: 100+ rushing yards, 250+ passing yards, 35:00+ TOP, no more than 25 penalty yards, no more than 1 turnover. The Commanders did all that today and lost by 35.
Since the bye (7 games) JSN has a 17 game pace of: 63 rec, 834 yards, 5 TDs.
Demario Douglas has 410 receiving yards in 10 games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 406 receiving yards in 11 games.
Brock Purdy when facing top-half (favorable) matchups by adjusted fantasy points allowed: 22.5 PPG.
Brock Purdy when facing bottom-half (unfavorable) matchups by adjusted fantasy points allowed: 16.4 PPG.
In Jets games this year, only 5 total touchdowns have been scored by WRs on either team.
Calvin Ridley PPG in 2023: 13.5
Christian Kirk PPG in 2023: 13.5
The Bengals are now averaging -1.7 fewer yards per passing play versus their opponents, 31st in the league. They are also averaging -1.2 fewer yards per rush than their opponents, last in the NFL.
The Fun Stuff:
From the people who brought you “behind the back no look pass,” it’s “behind the back no look interception.”
Tommy Devito doesn’t throw during warm ups.
Absolute Sorcery from Kellen Moore on 3rd & 17.
How long until we see some variant of this onside kick strategy in the NFL?
David Tepper fired Matt Rhule with $40 million left on his contract.
David Tepper fired Frank Reich with $30 million left on his contract.
They really aired this Robert Saleh commercial 2 minutes after his team allowed one of the most embarrassing TDs of the season.
It’s just a little water, right?
Merry Fitzmas, and a Happy New Year!
This tight window throw from Jordan Love.
Jameis Winston sending a message to Derek Carr on the sidelines at halftime.
Tyreek Hill is the latest person to randomly promote the Disney/Pixar film Cars… is there some cultural event going on that we’re not aware of?
Since the AFL/NFL merger, the Lions were 0-12 (.000) on Thanksgiving when the moon is in a waxing gibbous phase heading into their game against the Packers. Thursday was a Waxing Gibbous, and they are now 0-13. #analytics
Sean Payton learned what a scorigami is, the hard way.
Waiver Weapons - Week Thirteen:
Week 12 was a fun one for the squad. This time of year we’re swinging for the fences with these waiver wires and we had a decent at bat this time around. Jameson Williams and Khalil Shakir were both tough picks that only put up 7-8 points each, but Gardner Minshew ended up being the QB13 after his rushing TD. We’ll keep trusting the process this week with these waiver weapons.
Camaron’s Pick: Jeff Wilson, RB, MIA (19% rostered on Sleeper) - Jeff Wilson missed the start of the season due to a freak injury that was never really talked about from the Dolphins training staff. In that time, Miami Running Backs have flourished. With Achane being the top RB in PPG in games he finished and Raheem Mostert being the PPR RB2 overall, it is not absurd at all to be targeting the running back room in this powerful Miami offense. Jeff Wilson had a season high opportunities last game against the Jets and has a favorable matchup against the Commanders this week. Mostert has never played a full season and Jeff Wilson could be the guy to own come playoff season as well as being a good start this week. If Achane ends up playing consider Kendre Miller or Jamaal Williams instead of Kamara misses this week.
Chris’ Pick: Green Bay Packers, D/ST, GB (13% rostered on Sleeper) - you are not hallucinating; I am indeed recommending that you pick up the defense going against Mahomes and Co. in prime time this week. Of course, I wouldn’t suggest you start them this week, but this pick is for all of our playoffs-bound readers who are looking for a nice stash play. After their tilt with KC, Green Bay has a very nice schedule to close out the fantasy season: the Giants (32nd vs. opposing defenses), Tampa Bay (13th vs. opposing defenses), Carolina (28th vs. opposing defenses), and Minnesota (23rd vs. opposing defenses). The only matchup that looks a bit shaky is Tampa Bay, and that’s more so because they don’t give up many turnovers (tied for 6th fewest in the league) than them being an actually successful offense; TB is also a home game for the Packers, which might help. Hopefully you’re all set on defense (or your league doesn’t play with D/ST), but if not, Green Bay is sitting on more than 3/4 of waiver wires just waiting to carry you to glory.
Will’s Pick: Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI (33% rostered on Sleeper) - The Bears are on bye this week, but right now is when you want to be making moves for the playoffs (and he might get scooped up before week 14). Johnson has been getting a 20-40% snap share all season, but last week that jumped to 74%. That could be a bears team wanting to get a good look at their rookie RB for the rest of the season. It’s worth a dart throw for an end of bench stash.
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