My boss gave me the franchise tag, so I held out until the Jets signed me

Welcome back!

Training camps are so close we can taste it. Here’s your last week of headlines and analysis that are unadulterated by the sensationalist feast we’re all about to partake in.

Now let’s get to it.

Analysis & Hype:

Since 2019 when Deebo entered the league:
Deebo Samuel:
• 340 targets
• 123 carries
Austin Ekeler
• 394 targets
• 658 carries
Who’s the real “wide back”?

Nico Collins in 2021:
• 13% Target Share
• 16% Target per Route Run
Nico Collins in 2022:
• 20% Target Share
• 25% Target Per Route Run

RB leaders by yards after contact per attempt (2022 - min. 100 touches)
1 Tony Pollard
2 Nick Chubb
3 Tyler Allgeier
4 D’Andre Swift
RB leaders by missed tackles forced per touch (2022 - min. 100 touches)
1 David Montgomery
2 Nick Chubb
3 Rhamondre Stevenson
4 D'Andre Swift

Rhamondre Stevenson is one of only five running backs over the last five years to have 69+ receptions and average 4.9 yards per carry.

Fantasy PPR points per game since 2019:
Mark Andrews: 14.24
Darren Waller: 13.81

The Jaguars were 21st in passing plays that gained 25+ yards. Trevor Lawrence was 18th in percentage of 20+ yard attempts. Enter Calvin Ridley, who led the NFL in 20+ yard targets (back in 2020).

60% of Lawrence's college passing touchdowns were on 7-9 routes (Corner, Post, Vertical). 53.6% of Ridley's touchdowns have been on these routes.

Marquise Brown played 6 games with Kyler Murray and *without* Hopkins last year. Brown in Weeks 1-6:
• WR8 in fantasy points per game (14.7)
• WR16 by targets per route run (0.26)
• WR4 in targets per game (10.3)
• WR1 in team share of air yards (50.4%)

Reminder of the last time we saw John Metchie play (college):
96/1142/8

28.9% of DeAndre Hopkins routes were Hooks in 2022. He averaged 2.78 yards per route run (YPRR) on these routes; that ranks in the upper 90th percentile of YPRR. (Minimum 200 total routes & 20% RR) Why is this important? That has been Ryan Tannehill's most targeted route since joining the Titans, and at 22% is one of the highest percent of total targets to a specific route since 2018.

“Once again the Ryan Tannehill [slander on Twitter] is out of control.”
• EPA/dropback: +0.12 (No. 9 among 39 qualified QB since 2019)
• Passer rating: 100.5 (No. 6)
• Yards per attempt: 7.9 (No. 4)
• Adjusted yards per attempt: 8.09 (No. 6)
• Completion rate: 66.9% (No. 10)
• TD/INT ratio: 2.7 (No. 10)

Lions GM Brad Holmes: “Montgomery does a little bit more in the passing game. And being able to add Gibbs, he's just so dynamic as a receiver.”

Over the last 2 seasons:
Fantasy points per game:
• Josh Allen: 27.6
• Patrick Mahomes: 26.4
% of games as a top-3 QB
• Allen: 48.5%
• Mahomes: 26.5%
% of games as a top-12 QB
• Allen: 78.8%
• Mahomes: 76.5%

Over the final 8 games, Keenan Allen averaged ~84 yards a game. Which is a pace of over 1,400 for the season.

Only 15 WRs had 2.0+ YPRR out wide & in the slot (min 150 routes run, min 20% slot rate) in 2022
• Tyreek Hill
• Justin Jefferson
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Stefon Diggs
• Jaylen Waddle
• Rashid Shaheed
• Davante Adams
• Cooper Kupp
• Christian Watson
• CeeDee Lamb
• Chris Olave
• Jerry Jeudy
• Keenan Allen
• Terry McLaurin
• Drake London

Reminder: Justin Fields was #1 in Fantasy Points per snap in 2022

Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, the Chiefs ranks in scoring rate per drives that did not end in kneel downs were...
• 2nd (55.2%)
• 2nd (53.3%)
• 4th (50.7%)
• 1st (51.6%)
• 1st (48.8%)

Highest Passer Rating on 20+ Yard Throw Attempts (Min. 200 Passing Attempts)
• Tua Tagovailoa: 125.6
• Daniel Jones: 119.4
• Joe Burrow: 118.9
• Josh Allen: 107.3
• Jalen Hurts: 105.9

Tua's 2022 season:
• #1 in YPA (8.9)
• #1 in deep pass EPA/att (+0.92)
• #2 in EPA/att (+0.18)
• #2 in first down rate (38.5%)
• #2 in third down EPA/att (+0.29)
• #2 in passer rating (105.5)
• #3 in TD/att (6.3%)
• #4 in red zone success rate (48.1%)
• #5 in success rate (48.7%)

Completion % on passes of 20+ yards (2022, min. 200 total attempts):
• 49% - Geno Smith
• 48% - Tua Tagovailoa
• 46% - Kirk Cousins
• 43% - Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Davis Mills
• 42% - Dak Prescott
• 41% - Patrick Mahomes
[…]
• 29% - Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo
• 27% - Andy Dalton
• 26% - Lamar Jackson
• 25% - Matthew Stafford
• 22% - Kyler Murray
• 21% - Marcus Mariota

Cam Akers was the RB4 in PPR over the last four weeks of 2022.

Isaiah Likely in three games with a snap rate north of 50% as a rookie:
Week 8: 6 receptions-77 yards-1 TD (7 targets), PPR TE2
Week 9: 1-24-1 (5), TE9
Week 18: 8-103-0 (13), TE3

Over Evan Engram’s final 8 games (postseason included), he was Jacksonville’s WR1, leading with 66.8 YPG and 15.8 FPG. Over the full season, those numbers would have ranked 2nd-best among TEs, only behind Travis Kelce.

Reddit thread on the correlation of rookie workout videos posted vs non football content. High hopes for guys like Roschon Johnson, Tank Dell, and Parker Washington.

Veteran RB Leonard Fournette is working out today for the Patriots.

Chris Olave ranked 6th in yards per route run as a rookie.

“[Tank] Bigsby impressed Jaguars players and staff members repeatedly this offseason with his play-making ability in the passing game.” - Jaguars beat writer John Shipley

2022 NFL Routes Run Leaders
1. Justin Jefferson- 654
2. Adam Thielen (Jordan Addison?)- 614
3. Diontae Johnson- 599
4. Michael Pittman- 598
5. Davante Adams- 596

Charting expected vs. actual fantasy points per route run. Drake London would be a monster w/ positive regression + more routes.

Last time Bill O'Brien was calling the plays in New England, Rob Gronkowski in the in-line role was the fantasy TE1 and Aaron Hernandez as the move TE was the TE3.

The largest total value contract for any RB signed this offseason is Miles Sanders’ 4-year, $25M deal with the Panthers.

Cold Water:

Players who did not sign new contracts and can ONLY play on the NFL franchise tag (which they haven’t signed yet) this year:
• Tony Pollard
• Josh Jacobs
• Saquon Barkley

Josh Jacobs does NOT plan on signing the franchise tag with the Las Vegas Raiders and will NOT be reporting to training camp.

Of rookies since '12 that ran > 200 routes, Romeo Doubs was in the
• 46 percentile for PPR points / gm
• 35 percentile for yards / gm
• 38 percentile for yards / route run
• 75 percentile for targets / route run
Note: About ~100 receivers per year clear 200 routes

Deeper analysis of our "Cold Water on Achane" blurb from last week.

The 2022 Broncos punted on a league-high 49.7% of drives that did not end in kneel downs. It was the highest rate of punts per drive for a team since the 2018 Josh Rosen Cardinals (51.6%).

The Colts turned the ball over on a league-high 17.5% of possessions in 2022. That was the highest rate for a team since the 2019 Buccaneers (21.9%) when Jameis had the glorious 30/30 season.

Besides Zach Wilson, Mac Jones was the most pressure-sensitive QB in the NFL last year (according to Fantasy Points Data)
When kept clean:
• Catchable throw rate – 9th-best (83.3%)
• Passer rating – 14th-best (99.3)
When pressured:
• Catchable throw rate – 31st-of-41 QB (54.5%)
• Passer rating – 40th (26.4)

Aaron Rodgers failed to surpass 20 fantasy points in any game last year. Only one fantasy football quarterback finish inside the top-10.

Who struggled the most catching their deep targets (15+ air yards, min: 18 tgts) in 2022:
Davante Adams: 39%
Jerry Jeudy: 39%
Amari Cooper: 39%
Terry McLaurin: 36%
Allen Lazard: 33%
Gabe Davis: 33%
Courtland Sutton: 30%
Garrett Wilson: 28%
Marquise Brown: 27%
Chris Olave: 25%
Diontae Johnson: 24%

QB’s Hit Most Often (2022):
Kirk Cousins: 129
Russell Wilson: 119
Geno Smith: 108
Justin Herbert: 107
Daniel Jones: 101
Davis Mills: 94

5 of the last 6 times a team paid an RB, they regretted it & moved on:
• Zeke: $90M, cut during deal
• CMC: $64M, traded during deal
• Cook: $63M, cut during deal
• Gurley: $58M, cut during deal
• Bell: $53M, cut during deal
The 6th is Alvin Kamara, who could follow suit, given cap hits of $19M in 2024 & $29M in 2025

“I won't show up. I won't play a down. And that's a play I could use." - Saquon Barkley on his contract situation.

Mike Vrabel (who played LB) had the most career receiving TDs on the Titans roster until they added DeAndre Hopkins on Sunday.

Chiefs beat writer Adam Teicher: “It's been a rough opening practice for WR Rashee Rice. Struggling with the heat, maybe. He briefly left practice earlier and now threw up in the middle of a drill.”

The Fun Stuff:

The Phat-Booty connection will be one people tell their kids about.

Find someone who will gas you up like the NFL interns will gas up Mac Jones

Bryce Young to Laviska Shenault connection

Support for the #BanKickers movement is at an all-time high this week.

“They forced it down our throats and we have to deal with it.” - Aaron Rodgers

Vegas doesn’t care about you, DeAndre.

Packers WRs Madden 24 Rankings

Roschon 🤝 Ichiro

Michael Thomas Training up the Saints rookies!

Mahomes telling Hurts that he booked an Airbnb in Arizona for his family three months prior to the Super Bowl.

Le’Veon “Flik” Bell on the RB market.

Josh Jacobs was so close to signing an extension with the Raiders that he was sitting in a car in the parking lot of the team facility with his teammate Maxx Crosby.