Zach Wilson and Mac Jones Hype Week
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News & Notes:
J.K. Dobbins was placed on injured reserve, officially ending his 2021 season.
I started adding some of the waived player news and quickly realized it was going to get out of hand. So here’s the full list of all players waived by each team.
Vikings’ TE Irv Smith underwent surgery to repair his meniscus. Has a 4-5 month recovery timetable.
T.Y. Hilton will miss the first 3 game of the season on IR.
Gardner Minshew was traded to the Eagles for a conditional 6th round draft pick.
Trey Lance has a small "chip" in his finger, but is only expected to miss about a week.
Tarik Cohen is going on the reserve/PUP list, so he's out for the first six games of the season.
Coachspeak and Beat Reports:
“Yikes, Tony Romo just went all-in on Zach Wilson, said it won't be long before he is a top 3-5 quarterback. Said he has Mahomes potential.” Also Tony Romo: “I think Zach Wilson is going to turn the Jets around.”
“He’s a rookie in name only” - Greg Van Roten on Zach Wilson
Coach Robert Saleh: Zach Wilson is "light years ahead of normal rookies" when it comes to preparation and study habits.
There’s “reports” Dolphins owner Stephen Ross "really wants" Texans QB Deshaun Watson.
Eagles rookie RB Kenneth Gainwell “is really carving out a significant role for himself.”
“Atlanta will use [Kyle] Pitts all over formations to try to find exploitable matchups. Tight ends often struggle as rookies, but he has the makeup of being an impact player from Week 1”
"Jalen [Hurts] knows nobody else got any reps with the 1's so you could really argue that we named our starter a while ago. ... Jalen's our starter. I consistently saw a player that got better every single day. He did exactly what we wanted him to do."
“Gerald Everett already becoming a favorite target for Russell Wilson”
Analysis & Hype:
Zach Wilson’s pre-season passer rating among rookie QBs:
Under pressure: 94.4 (1st)
Clean pocket: 147.3 (1st)
The Rams have the third most favorable pass defense schedule in 2021. In his four years as the Rams head coach, Sean McVay’s offenses have ranked in the Top 10 in passing yards three times, the Top 8 in passing touchdowns twice, and third in pass attempts once.
This is a Damien Harris Tweet: Patriots carries within the 5 yard line last year
Cam Newton - 22
Rex Burkhead - 4
Damien Harris - 3
Sony Michel - 2
James White - 1”
“Trey Lance comes into the game and Kyle goes into his bag and calls QB counter bash. The sky's the limit to SF's ground game” (Video)
Last year Travis Kelce outscored the average TE1 by 102%.
Highest-graded preseasons by rookie QBs in PFF Preseason Era (2013)
1. Mac Jones, 2021 - 92.2
2. Patrick Mahomes, 2017 - 91.8
Mac Jones finishes the preseason with PFF's 2nd highest passing grade among 101 QBs that threw a pass.
“Alvin Kamara's weekly PPR finishes in the 8 games he played without Michael Thomas missed last year: RB2, RB1, RB11, RB9, RB3, RB2, RB16, RB1
Targets: 9, 14, 4, 10, 8, 13, 6, 5 (that's 8.6 per game)
Jameis Winston starting just locks in a monster role out of the gates.”
“Alvin Kamara was the RB2 per game last year, 3.1 points per game higher than the RB3. He also averaged 30.8 PPR points on 24.3 expected PPR points without Michael Thomas.”
Threads on /r/fantasyfootball:
“Antonio Gibson will NOT be a workhorse this year”
“Kyle Pitts: Why his (redraft) ADP is justified”
2021 Bold Predictions
Who are the "bell-cow" running backs this year?
“Diontae Johnson (2020) - postseason included, games (4) with an injury suffered in the first-half excluded
+ 12 total games
+ 12.3 targets per game (1st)
+ 19.6 XFP per game (2nd)
+ 19.4 FPG (4th)
+ 10+ targets in 11 of 11 games Ben Roethlisberger played
ADP: WR18”
Jameis Winston has zero turnover-worthy plays this preseason according to PFF. Did sitting behind Brees actually pay off?
“Justin Jefferson led the NFL in YPRR vs. man coverage. His competition for targets right now is 31yo Thielen, maybe Irv Smith, Tyler Conklin, Dalvin Cook, and we don't know who the Vikings' WR3 will be either.”
A good example of why you don’t get swayed too much by pre-season stats:
Preseason leading rushers for the last 9 seasons:
2019 - Nick Brosette
2018 - Chris Warren
2017 - Corey Grant
2016 - Mack Brown
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Lorenzo Taliaferro
2013 - Khiry Robinson
2012 - William Powell
2011 - Kendall Hunter
Now with that said:
“Preseason scoring leaders:
1. Rhamondre Stevenson - 30
2. Brandon McManus - 24
3. Ka'imi Fairbairn - 22
4. Sam Ficken - 21
5. Tyler Bass - 20
6. Rodrigo Blankenship - 19
T7. Jake Verity, Chris Boswell, Josh Lambo - 18
A rookie running back amidst a group of kickers. Special.”
Jonathan Taylor (PPR ADP RB9) vs Ezekiel Elliott (RB5)
- Better 2020 YPC and PFF Run Grade - JT by landslide
- Better 2020 YPT and PFF Pass Grade - JT by landslide
- Touches/Game Week 11 on - JT 22.7, EE 19.3
“If comparing Pitts to rookie TEs historically, make sure you ONLY compare him to TEs who went top 5 in the NFL draft. Anything outside of that and you are comparing a unicorn to horses.”
“Was dead wrong on Rhamondre Stevenson. Skilled mover for his size, who has added an impressive anticipatory skillset to his game. He's matured noticably since Oklahoma in this area.”
“My ballot has been officially cast: Rhamondre Stevenson is your 2021 NFL preseason MVP.”
“When RB Rhamondre Stevenson smells the goal-line, he is not to be denied. His 5th rushing TD of the preseason.”
Deeep (Mostly Dynasty) Sleepers:
Patriots claimed former Dolphins' RB/WR Malcolm Perry on waivers. When the patriots go after a converted QB pass-catching RB/WR (And from the Dolphins), you pay attention.
The Panthers currently only have three RBs -- Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard and Trenton Cannon, who is more special teams than RB.
Bengals rookie RB Chris Evans “Might be the best rookie RB in terms of receiving ability.”
Ty'Son Williams has “leapfrogged” Justice Hill as the Ravens' No. 2 running back.
Cold Water:
“Jaguars' first-team RB snaps out of 66 plays with Trevor Lawrence on the field this preseason, which is basically a game's worth of plays: James Robinson - 33 Carlos Hyde - 28 Last year, Robinson played on 70% of JAX snaps (7th-most among RBs).”
“The Rams drafted Darrell Henderson, watched him play for a full season, used their first pick on a running back, who then got hurt, then traded for another running back.
The Rams may not think Henderson is as good as you think he is.”
“There’s some real weird stuff going on with JaMarr Chase. Not catching anything.”
“Last year [Gus] Edwards had 0 ‘passing situation targets’, which are targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing.”
Beat writer on Jalen Reagor: “He's had a few great days, but he hasn't had a great camp.”
“Feel like people think all Pat Freiermuth needs to do is "surpass" Eric Ebron to be a breakout. Nearly every breakout TE (Andrews, Waller, Logan Thomas etc) is a top 2 target on their team. Getting past Ebron is only the start with Juju, Claypool, and Diontae there. Next year.”
The Fun Stuff:
Trey Lance and Jimmy G passing each other on the field as they substitute in and out.
The last time the Patriots had a rookie opening day starter at QB
How did Jameis Winston win the starting job, you ask?
Justin Forsett on making a return to the NFL.
Urban Meyer telling Gardner Minshew he's in a QB competition and then trading him 3 days later.
Justin Fields’ placement on the run.
If you haven’t already read about the Bishop Sycamore circus, here you go. One of the most bizarre stories you’ll read this week.
Safety Justin Reid finally gets his wish to kick in a game.
Twitter thread with everyone’s favorite fantasy team names this season.
Laviska is a tank.
“Rosters” (video)
Poor Cam had the internet memeing relentlessly.
LBs getting the gameplan against the Niners.
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