Your Keeper Decisions, Solved

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Keeper season is here, which means half your league is already overthinking things and the other half hasn’t opened their app since January.

If you want to be in the first group (but, you know, actually win), hop into our Premium Discord via Patreon. You’ll get live draft help, bonus content we can’t fit in the newsletter, our Reddit famous (join the conversation!) Google Sheets, plus 150+ football junkies ready to debate whether that rookie sleeper of yours is the next Amon-Ra… or the next N’Keal Harry.

We’ve got the crew, the data, and the takes to tilt your league into oblivion. Let’s roll.

Analysis & Hype:

QB fantasy points from rush attempts inside the five-yard line over the last two seasons:
1. Jalen Hurts (147.4)
2. Josh Allen (93)
3. Anthony Richardson (44.9)

Bryce Young during weeks 16-18 last season:
• 7 TD
• 612 Yards
• 0 INTS

Fantasy Points per Target Leaders [2023-24, min. 150 targets]:
1. Jayden Reed - 2.50
2. George Kittle - 2.43
3. Deebo Samuel - 2.39
4. Nico Collins - 2.26
5. Mike Evans - 2.21

Bucky Irving had 19.7 PPG in 8 when he reached 45% snaps.

2024 WR Leaders by Total Air Yards [+ Catchable Air Yard % in Parentheses]
1. Calvin Ridley, 1838 (56%)
2. Courtland Sutton, 1822 (63%)
3. Drake London, 1715 (69%)
4. Justin Jefferson, 1709 (70%)
5. Marvin Harrison, 1613 (63%)

Calvin Ridley so far this preseason with Cam Ward:
• 100% catch rate
• 37.5% target share
• 74.6% team receiving yards

Fantasy Points per dropback (2000-2024 - minimum 1,000 dropbacks):
1. Patrick Mahomes: 0.74
2. Jalen Hurts: 0.71
3. Brock Purdy: 0.68

Most receiving yards produced on targets of 25+ air yards through an initial 33 career games:
1. Tyreek Hill
2. AJ Green
3. Rashid Shaheed

Emeka Egbuka lined up out wide on 9 of his 10 snaps in the preseason opener. Reminder: Egbuka averaged 2.97 YPRR from the outside vs. 2.48 YPRR from the slot in college.

Rashid Shaheed has a higher single game .5 PPR fantasy score than any game of Chris Olave's career.

In the 8 games Evan Engram was actually healthy from Weeks 6 to 14, he did not have a game with fewer than 7 PPR points.

Adonai Mitchell was WR7 out of 128 qualifiers in FantasyPtsData average separation score last year.

Brock Bowers broke the NCAA single-season yardage record (1,051) by a TE from a power conference. Then Tyler Warren broke THAT record – by 400 MORE yards (1,451).

Abdul Carter played 6 snaps in his preseason debut. 3 snaps were rushing the passer. All 3 pass rushes resulted in a pressure and hurry, per PFF and NextGenStats.

Tony Pollard in 4 games without Tyjae Spears last season:
• 116.2 YPG (1,976-yard pace)
• 15.8 fantasy PPG (RB16)
• 17.9 expected PPG (RB7)

Travis Etienne played 100% of the Trevor Lawrence snaps, then was done for the day.

Most games over 20.0 Fantasy Points (PPR) [RB/WR/TEs, 2024]:
10 - Bijan Robinson
9 - Ja'Marr Chase
8 - Derrick Henry, De'Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jefferson
7 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley
6 - Brian Thomas, Chuba Hubbard, George Kittle, Joe Mixon, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin

Bijan Robinson averaged over 5.0 YPC when his QB was under center last year. Kirk Cousins played from the shotgun a lot in 2024 (90.5% of his dropbacks) because he couldn't move.

Jaylen Warren reached 30%+ rushing attempts in 14 games over the last two years. In those games he averaged 38% with 13.4 PPG.

The fantasy football case for Justin Fields. 31 QBs had 100+ carries in a season from 2014-2024. 13 (42%) finished as top-three fantasy QBs on a per-game basis.

2024 WR Leaders in Fantasy Points per Route Run [and their route share]
1. Puka Nacua, 0.75 (72%)
2. Marvin Mims, 0.72 (28%)
3. AJ Brown, 0.65 (89%)
4. Mike Evans, 0.64 (71%)
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, 0.63 (84%)

Marvin Mims earned an 82% route share with Denver's first-team offense over the weekend. If he had that sort of usage last year and maintained his per-route efficiency, he would have averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game last year (more than any WR but Ja'Marr Chase).

Quarterbacks to average at least 3 fantasy points per game from rushing production on scrambles last season (TruMedia):
• Bryce Young (4.4)
• Drake Maye (4.1)
• Jayden Daniels (3.9)
• Josh Allen (3.3)

Keenan Allen had more TDs out wide than AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb or Brian Thomas Jr. last year.

2024 QB Leaders in FPG on scramble rush attempts [excludes designed runs/sneaks]:
1. Bryce Young - 4.4 FPG
2. Drake Maye - 4.1
3. Jayden Daniels - 3.7

Percentage of top-12 fantasy football producers by age over the last 10 years. Tight Ends spike at age 25. Tight Ends turning/are already 25 in 2025:
• Trey McBride
• Dalton Kincaid
• Chigoziem Okonkwo
• Kyle Pitts

In 18 years as OC or HC, the RB who leads Josh McDaniels’ team (currently Patriots) in 3rd-down snaps has been different than the RB who leads his team in carries 17/18 times.

Travis Hunter snaps w/ 1st team
Offense: 11 out of 12
Defense: 0 out of 10

Trey McBride is the only third year Tight End that has ever posted a 28%+ Target Share.

Cam Skattebo was the only 2024 college RB with 1,000+ rushing, 500+ receiving yards, and 100+ missed tackles forced.

Cold Water:

The Bengals had no RB on the field at all for 18% of 3rd downs last year. That's more than triple the rate of any other team.

Saquon Barkley led all RBs in touches in 2024. Only two of the last twelve RB touch leaders finished Top 12 the following year.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt spent 6 years in college yet averaged more than 11 attempts/game just once.

"Right now, starting Chubb might be the biggest red flag for Houston long-term. So far in camp, that burst needed to get through to the second and third level of the defense is nowhere to be found." - Cole Thompson via Texanswire

Only three RBs have posted 22+ PPG (RB1 territory) in NFL history past the age of 29 (CC: Christian McCaffrey). The last time an RB at least 29 years old posted even 20 PPG was in 2014.

Keenan Allen's ranks among 116 WRs with 30+ targets last year:
• 36th in targets per route
• 71st in yards per route
• 64th in PFF receiving grade
• 51st in ESPN Open Score

Despite ranking 13th in targets last season with 135, Courtland Sutton ranked
• 17th in receiving yards
• 57th in yards per target
• 40th in yards per catch
• 37th in yards per route run
• 25th in Fantasy PPG

The Chargers ran 159 plays last season with Rashawn Slater off the field. On those plays:
• 4.8 yards per play (would have ranked 27th)
• 37.9% success rate (29th)
• 3.2 YPC (32nd)
• 15.1% rate of 10+ yard plays (32nd)
• 5% rate of 20+ yards plays (24th)

When Rashawn Slater missed Week 4 against the Chiefs last season, Justin Herbert was under pressure on about 42% of his dropbacks.

Breakdown of the Anthony Richardson Preseason Sack…

51% of Daniel Jones career passes have been thrown 0-9 yards downfield, leads the NFL since entering.

The Chargers ranked 28th in pass attempts last year -- Greg Roman has finished 28th or lower in 9-of-11 seasons.

Tre Harris' preseason so far:
• 52 snaps
• 25 routes
• 2 targets
• 0 catches

Terry McLaurin in 2024:
• Lowest target total since 2019 (rookie szn)
• 39th in yards per catch
• 29th in yards per route run

Texans QB Graham Mertz in his preseason debut:
• 7-of-14
• 28 passing yards
• 0 TDs
• 3 INTs
• 1-9-0 rushing line

Last year, Marvin Mims ran 149 routes if we exclude every screen pass per FantasyPtsData. On those plays, he produced a 1st down just 4% of the time.

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Mini Draft Guide - Camaron - Middle/Late Round Receivers

Last week we broke down how to find breakout Early Round WRs (ADP <= 36). If you missed it, do be sure to check it out here or on our homepage. This week we are talking about the middle and late round breakouts, but before we get to that we wanted to shamelessly plug our Premium Discord one more time. We shared a couple other breakout metrics there that didn’t quite make it to this week’s newsletter if you are interested in reading more. Now that that’s done, lets find out why we’re recommending Jacksonville rookies in back to back seasons.

Defining Breakouts

A breakout receiver is one who exceeds their expected fantasy points per game by at least 2.0. Middle round receivers are drafted between picks 37 and 86, late round receivers between 87 and 200. There are obviously plenty of players that go after that, but in your average league those players will still be on waivers after the draft. Let’s start with the middle rounds.

Middle Round Trends

Over the past four seasons, three patterns have consistently appeared among middle round WR breakouts:

1. Pocket Passer Correlation

Fifteen of twenty breakout receivers in this range had quarterbacks who fit the immobile pocket-passer archetype. These quarterbacks tend to distribute targets predictably and support concentrated passing volume.

2. Quarterback ADP

Thirty of the 20 breakout receivers came from offenses where the Quarterback’s ADP was after pick 100. When these late-drafted quarterbacks overperform, their WRs benefit disproportionately. However, when we actually combine these trend with the pocket passer correlation we have found that only twice in the last four years has a breakout middle-round receiver been from a mobile QB picked in the top 100 picks - and in both cases that QB only played 11 full games that season.

3. Ambiguous Receiving Rooms

When two pass catchers from the same team are both drafted in the middle rounds. Think guys like 2021 Chris Godwin and 2023 Keenan Allen who were playing with Mike Evans and Mike Williams. The market recognizes that there is opportunity for fantasy points here so they're drafting them earlier than the late-round dart throws. But they're also overly concerned about who the top target earner will be so they push guys like 2024 Tee Higgins or 2023 Brandon Aiyuk down the board.

Our Favorites:

• Mike Evans & Chris Godwin (Evans is a borderline early round receiver of which he would have red flags to avoid, but is fine for now)
• Rashee Rice & Xavier Worthy
• Jameson Williams (LaPorta has fallen to the middle rounds)
• Jordan Addison (ADP pushed down due to suspension, but for now a good pick)

Late Round Trends

Don’t worry, Late Round Targets are much more simple to identify. Like Leonardo DiCaprio, we want youth.

1. Early-Career Players

Since 2021 there have been 41 breakout receivers in the late rounds, however we’re going to add a new qualifier in that the receiver must also reach at least 10 PPG. Of the remaining 39 players, 22 were in year 1, 2, or 3. And if we narrow these players down to those who were able to reach at least 30 yards/game a number hit by 18/22 of our breakouts. We get six players in 2025. In this range, most drafters default to familiar names, overlooking rookies or unproven players. The smarter play is to embrace uncertainty and target the profiles with true breakout upside.

2. Year-Five Players on New Teams

Of the remaining 17 breakouts, five were in their fifth year, and four of those had changed teams. If a player is unproductive enough to not be resigned after their rookie contract YET is good enough to still have players taking a shot on them in redraft leagues they have historically been a very good bet.

Our Favorites:

• Matthew Golden
• Ricky Pearsall
• Jayden Reed
• Emeka Egbuka
• Jayden Higgins
• Kyle Williams
• Joshua Palmer
• Dyami Brown (I dare you to find anyone else calling for a Dyami Brown breakout season)

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The Fun Stuff:

Jaguars Kicker Cam Little hit a 70-yard FG in their preseason game against Pittsburgh.

Speaking of exciting kicks, here’s Bills RB Ray Davis nailing an extra point.

Hopefully you’re better at “managing your investments” than Oklahoma QB John Mateer.

Panthers defense so bad a make a wish kid was able to score a TD.

Jameis Winston for QB1.

In honor of Jake Ferguson’s new contract let’s remember the ballsiest moment in NFL history.

Remember this weird touchdown? We can pretty much guarantee Mike McDaniel does.

Joe Burrow when he gets to dress himself.

Sean McDermott coded post.

Validation for 2024 Kimani Vidal Drafters

Knew Tua Tagovailoa’s new haircut looked familiar.

“Hey James why didn’t you practice today?” “Business”

Tetairoa McMillan name guide per sources (his Mom): Okay: Tetairoa, T-Mac, Cabella. Not okay: Tet.

Kyren Williams just upended Damone Clark (240 lbs) in pass protection.

Marshawn Lynch still can’t be tackled.

CeeDee Lamb cannot say the same…

The auction drafts never disappoint at the Fantasy Football expo.

The Lions are so injured even the team dog is banged up.

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