Your Fantasy Team is Still Better than the Browns

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

We sometimes get questions from our readers—which we love—asking why we include both positive and negative stats for the same player. The reason is that this newsletter isn’t here to sway you one way or another about players (that’s what our Discord is for). Our goal is to spotlight the excellent work of our favorite fantasy analysts on Twitter and help grow the Fantasy Football community as a whole. The stats we share are exactly that—just stats. They’re here to help you form your own conclusions.

For example, two readers might interpret Sam LaPorta’s <10% target share in completely different ways. The optimist might say he can only improve from here, while the pessimist could argue he’s being phased out of the offense. Until something changes, both perspectives are valid—and that’s the beauty of fantasy football predictions. It’s what makes the game fun, even when you’re 2-3 and agonizing over whether to start Sean Tucker or JuJu Smith-Schuster.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Highest rush yards differential in the first 6 games of the season since 1933:
• 1984 Bears - 828
• 1934 Bears - 855 (Shoutout LH/HB: Beattie Feathers)
• 2024 Ravens - 878

The Ravens are allowing just 2.9 YPC to RBs.

Of every RB with at least 20 carries in the 4th quarter and overtime, Derrick Henry ranks:
• 1st in yds/carry
• 1st in rush yards over expected
• 1st in EPA/play
• 1st in first downs

Tony Pollard is currently Top-10 in broken tackles (18) & is 1 of just 3 RB’s averaging 4.00+ YAC/attempt.

Justin Fields:
• 16th in PFF QB grade
• 10th in NextGenStats completion rate over expected)

George Pickens target rate by year:
• 2022: 14.4%
• 2023: 19.2%
• 2024: 26.3%

Garrett Wilson is the only WR with 300+ targets through 2 NFL seasons and currently leads the NFL in targets (67) this season.

Garrett Wilson last 6 quarters (Pre-MNF 4th Quarter)
• 29 Targets
• 40.8% Target Share
• 19 Receptions
• 169 Receiving Yards
• 2 TDs

Excluding a weird Week 1 for Atlanta, Drake London has a 41% first-read target rate, per FantasyPtsData. Among 85 players with 100+ routes run from Week 2 on,t hat’s the highest rate in the NFL.

Drake London 17 game pace:
• 153 Targets
• 108 Receptions
• 1212 Yards
• 11 TDs

Only Derrick Henry (108.1) has more fantasy PPR points than Chuba Hubbard (82.8) since Andy Dalton took over at QB in Week 3.

Allen Lazard is up to 5 receiving touchdowns this season. No player in the NFL has more.

Tyrone Tracy Jr Week 6:
• 84% snaps
• 17 carries, 50 yds, TD
• 29 routes
• 6 targets, 6 rec, 57 yds (tied for NYG lead in rec and rec yds)
• 22.7 fantasy points

The highest fantasy scoring former LSU wide receiver this week was Kayshon Boutte.

Ladd McConkey:
• 26% target share
• 32% air yards share.

First down per route run rate leaders: (minimum 100 routes)
• 16.7% - Nico Collins
• 15.2% - Chris Godwin
• 14.3% - Josh Downs
• 12.7% - Malik Nabers

Texans passing attack without Nico Collins:
• Tank Dell: 94% routes, 30% targets, 28% air yards, 18.7 fantasy points.
• Stefon Diggs: 85%, 23%, 37%, 19.7
• Dalton Schultz: 85%, 27%, 26%, 6.7

Chase Brown set season-highs last night in:
• Snap rate: 62%
• Route rate: 54%
• Share of RB opportunities: 65%

Chase Brown has a 51% success rate, per Next Gen Stats, versus Zack Moss' 31%.

PPR per route run leaders at WR:
• 0.66 — Nico Collins
• 0.63 — Justin Jefferson
• 0.63 — Chris Godwin

Targets in four games together this year:
• Tee Higgins 37 (28.8%)
• Ja'Marr Chase 31 (23.7%)

Brock Bowers has been targeted on a massive 34% of his routes this season when Davante Adams not on field.

TJ Hockenson in 2023:
• TE2 in PPG
• TE1 in xPPG
• 1st in Target Share
• 2nd in Air Yards Share
• 5th in YPRR

David Montgomery’s on pace for 1,513 yards and 20 TD’s.

Since 2020, the Patriots now have 3 passing TDs of 35+ air yards -- 1 by Mac Jones, 1 by Cam Newton and now 1 by Drake Maye in his first career start.

Week 6 RB route participation rates: (Pre MNF)
• 72% — Tyrone Tracy
• 70% — Chuba Hubbard
• 65% — Bucky Irving
• 63% — Josh Jacobs

Trey McBride in four healthy games this season:
• 87% routes
• 28% targets
• 28% air yards
• 13.9 fantasy points per game

Joe Flacco is currently 7th in EPA per Drop Back.

J.K. Dobbins without Gus Edwards (IR):
• 18.2 fantasy points
• 73% snaps
• 68% attempts
• 47% route participation
• 7% target share

Isaac Guerendo had a Speed Score of 125.7 - one of the highest ever recorded. To put his size/speed ratio into perspective, Saquon Barkley’s Speed Score was 124.3 and Jonathan Taylor’s was 121.7.

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Cold Water:

With the trade of Amari Cooper, backup safety Rodney McLeod is the only Browns player, including offense, to score more than one TD this season.

ESPN Analytics has Amari Cooper rated as the single-worst WR in the NFL this year.

Amari Cooper saw 455 uncatchable air yards the first 6 weeks, the most among wide receivers per FTNFantasy.

Bottom-eight dropback success rates in Weeks 1-6 this millennium:
734. Deshaun Watson (33%)
735. David Carr (33%)
736. Marc Bulger (32%)
737. Josh Rosen (31%)
738. Akili Smith (31%)
739. Jay Fielder (30%)
740. Blaine Gabbert (30%)
741. Jamarcus Russell (29%)

Since Trevor Lawrence entered the league in 2021 the Jaguars have dropped 113 passes, per ESPN Research. They dropped four potential TD passes on Sunday. (Check the Fun Stuff to see the dropped passes).

Calvin Ridley went 0-0-0 on 8 targets last week.

Arizona Cardinals RB Snap counts in Week 6:
• Emari Demercado: 53%
• James Conner: 28%
• Trey Benson: 19%

Most turnovers by a QB through 6 weeks:
• 10 - Will Levis
• 7 - Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts

Lowest single-season average target depth in the PFF era (since 2006):
• 2020 post-surgery Alex Smith (5.4)
• 2024 Patrick Mahomes (5.7)

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 3.6 air yards per completion this year. Over an entire season, that would rank dead last in the NextGenStats era (since 2016).

Ja'Marr Chase's diminishing aDOT and per-route production vs. man coverage over the years:
• 2021 - 13.03
• 2022 - 10.38
• 2023 - 7.35
• 2024 - 6.92

Among the 42 runners with Ty Chandler’s 42 carries, he ranks:
• 42st in broken tackle %
• 42nd in yards after contact
• 39th in yards per carry

The Cowboys are currently giving up 0.17 EPA per designed rush. The worst single season in those 18 years was 0.13 EPA per designed rush.

Some tight ends who have seen more targets than Sam LaPorta (10): Jordan Akins, Brenton Strange, Erick All, Ja'Tavion Sanders.

Ja'Lynn Polk among 75 WRs with 20+ targets:
• 74th in yards per target
• 74th in yards per route
• 75th in PFF receiving grade

The Bucs ran for over 250 yards the first game Rachaad White missed.

DK Metcalf in Week 6:
• 52-yard TD was nullified on an illegal shift penalty.
• Toe was out of bounds on a potential 2-yard TD before halftime.
• Arguable better ball away from a 49-yard TD earlier on that same drive.

Brandon Aiyuk 2023:
• 90% route rate
• 6.7 targets per game
• 23.6% target share
• 15.6 PPR points per game
Brandon Aiyuk 2024:
• 91% route rate
• 6.8 targets per game
• 22.2% target share
• 9.7 PPR points per game

Waiver Weapons - Week Seven:

Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Last week our waiver weapons felt like the Saints offense this season, mostly mediocre but with encouraging signs. Darius Slayton put up doulbe digit points on 11 targets which is what we hoped for, but WR31 isn’t anything special. Meanwhile Chris’ pick Tank Bigsby was clearly the main focus of the team’s rushing offense, but was completely uninvolved in the passing game. Let’s try to be more exciting this week.

Camaron’s Pick: DeMario Douglas, WR, NEP (32% rostered on Sleeper) - Through 6 games, second-year receiver DeMario Douglas has consistently proven himself as the Patriots' best offensive weapon. In the last four weeks, he’s posted three games with at least 9 targets and 6 receptions, and he just had his best performance of the season against the Texans. With the Patriots facing the struggling Jaguars defense this week, Douglas has a prime opportunity to exploit their injury-riddled secondary.

Camaron’s Long Shot: Calvin Austin, WR, PIT (2% rostered on Sleeper) - With Chris out this week, no one’s here to stop me from using his Waiver Weapon slot however I like. Normally, starting a wide receiver against the Jets is a terrible idea. Their secondary, led by DPOY candidate Sauce Gardner and pass interference specialist DJ Reed, has been lockdown for most teams the last two years. However, teams have found success with short, underneath throws to slot receivers, and that’s where Calvin Austin excels. Consider starting Austin in deeper PPR leagues.

Trade Target Thursday:

Sorry to disappoint if you came here looking to make a deal for someone - if that’s the case, I still stand by everyone mentioned in this section over the past few weeks (though some of the “buy low” or “this guy is on a bye week” logic might no longer apply). This week’s trade target, though, is nobody - and not just because it’s a convenient choice while my wife and I are on vacation in Mexico. Oftentimes, there are just as many reasons not to make a trade as there are reasons to make one! Here are a few things you should keep in mind as you evaluate whether to try to dig yourself out of a hole without bargaining:

• If you’re in a tight spot but not fully teetering on the brink, you can try your hand at pulling a few lottery tickets on waivers each week. Be more aggressive in cutting non-performers from your team in favor of guys with higher upside, like backups to players who are questionable with injuries or players who had strong “one-off” performances in the event that they repeat. This strategy, coupled with the sage advice from our “Waiver Weapons” column over the past few weeks, would have led you to end up with guys like Sam Darnold, Tyrone Tracy, and Josh Downs on your roster.

• Keep churning those bottom-of-the-roster spots! If your league allows post-game drops like Yahoo or Sleeper do by default (which I don’t understand fundamentally, but rules are rules), load up on Thursday players, then drop any you don’t want to keep (like if you grabbed a handcuff and the starter remained healthy) in exchange for early Sunday guys. Rinse and repeat with the late window and Monday Night Football. More shots means you’re more likely to hit on one.

• If you’re streaming defenses and kickers + indifferent about your options for a given week, go ahead and drop last week’s starters in favor of another spot for a higher-upside player like those mentioned above; there’s no point in rostering a D or K you won’t end up starting unless they’re a top-tier asset. Just make sure you remember to pick up one of each in time to start them - ideally, playing in a late game so you have a chance at another “free look” player on Yahoo/Sleeper during the early Sunday window.

Sometimes, you need to shake things up on your fantasy team. Trading is a great way to do that, and you’re 100% guaranteed to get the guy you want (assuming your deal goes through). Sometimes, though, the best deal is no deal. If you’re the party in a deal who can better afford to wait a week, you usually benefit from doing so as your counterparty grows ever more desperate. Just pay attention to your league’s deadline, stay active on waivers, and most importantly - don’t force yourself to finish a deal just because you started negotiating one! In the words of the great Kenny Rogers, “know when to walk away, and know when to run.”

P.S. - we will no longer be checking in on my Jacobs and Pickens for Bijan and Shaheed deal considering Shaheed’s impending IR stint. Ultimately; the Bijan side slightly outscored the Jacobs side through last week, but it’s unlikely that will continue going forward with Shaheed projecting 0 over the next few weeks. Don’t mistake this for me victory lapping a deal because a guy got hurt - quite the opposite, in fact, as I realize I lost out over the duration when all were healthy! Just wanted to be transparent as to why you won’t see updates going forward.

The Fun Stuff:

David Montgomery with the Disney magic wand TD celebration.

The chemistry on the Bills is already there.

All 8 of Calvin Ridley’s graded targets this week.

This was the Mac Jones 35+ air yards TD if you were curious.

The Jaguars dropped not one, not two, not three, but four touchdowns in Week 6.

The 2 most recent Scorigamis have been the Cowboys getting blown out.

Imagine getting beat so bad Dan Skipper starts lining up at WR. (6’ 10”, 310 LBs)

The Steelers RT Broderick Jones forgot what sport he was playing.

Hook and ladder to Penei Sewell.

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