Will Levis Deep Balls

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

In exactly one week, we’ll be watching real football. Raising our hands in the rain like Andy Dufresne after crawling out of the sewer to free ourselves of the offseason wait.

It’s the perfect time to grab the draft guide on our Patreon Page to get our rankings for those last minute drafts, trades, or waiver pickups. You can also get access to our Discord group, where a sharp community talks fantasy football tips and advice all season long.

Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

This is our last time sharing this stat I promise, but a huge update to the draft guide made us change our list.
91% of RBs with 300+ Touches over the last decade have finished Top-12 at the position. Here is the correct list of running backs we predict to get over 300 touches this season in our draft guide:
• Bijan Robinson
• Christian McCaffrey
• Saquon Barkley
• Travis Etienne

Running Backs to post a 60%+ Carry% and 80%+ Rush TD Market Share in each of their first two seasons:
• Kenneth Walker III

The top 4 RBs in PFF preseason rushing grades:
1. Israel Abanikanda
2. Jordan Mason
3. Carson Steele
4. Deuce Vaughn

Josh Allen has finished second in dropback success rate each of the past two seasons.

In 8 full starts as a rookie, Will Levis paced for:
• 3,808 passing yards
• 2-1 TD-INT ratio

Will Levis led the NFL in deep-ball attempt-rate (22.4%) last year by more than 5 percentage points over the 2nd place finisher (Jordan Love, at 14.2%).

Preseason Stat Leaders:
• Pass Yards: Trey Lance (662)
• Rush Yards: Trey Lance (168)
• Receiving Yards: A.T. Perry (176)

Sean Payton teams (cc: Broncos) own 8 of the top-17 team running back target share seasons since 2011.

Rookie WRs who have earned targets at a high rate during the preseason:
• Jalen McMillan: 38% TPRR (16 routes)
• Jordan Whittington: 36% (47) (3.56 yards per route run)
• Casey Washington: 32% (65)
• Xavier Worthy: 32% (19)
• Malachi Corley: 30% (23)
• Ryan Flournoy: 30% (30)
• Adonai Mitchell: 26% (23)

Of 67 QBs, Jason Bean ends the preseason ranked:
• #1 in EPA/dropback (+0.47)
• #1 in EPA/att (+0.30)
• #1 in success rate (66%)
• #1 in YPA (10.4)
• #1 in air yards/att (12.2)
• #2 in completion rate (79%)

George Pickens:
• Led all WR’s in contested-catch success-rate as a rookie (19/28; 67.9%).
• 1 of 7 WR’s to average 3.50+ YPRR vs Man coverage last year
• Only WR to average 6.0+ YAC/reception on an 11.0+ ADOT last year (other than Nico Collins)
• Pace of 1,500+ yards; 16.6 PPG in 4 games without Diontae

Jaylen Wright in two preseason games:
• 17 rush attempts
• 7 targets
• 132 scrimmage yards (7.8 YPC)

Only Malik Nabers had a higher PFF receiving grade than Miami Dolphins rookie WR Malik Washington in 2023.

No player created more yards after initial contact than Carson Steele across the 2021-23 seasons.

Wide Receivers with a 24%+ Target Share in each of their first two seasons:
• Justin Jefferson
• Mike Evans
• Odell Beckham Jr
• Chris Olave

Noah Brown was up at 1.94 yards per route run last season. Better than Cooper Kupp, Devonta Smith, Rashid Shaheed. Now, he joins the Commanders’ considerably less crowded WR room.

Deebo Samuel outscored Brandon Aiyuk when both players were on the field (296 dropbacks) together in 2024.

Travis Kelce & Mark Andrews are the only 2 TE’s to average more expected fantasy points per-route run than Kyle Pitts over the last two seasons; ATL unfortunately also had the second-fewest catchable targets in the NFL last year.

David Njoku had a full-season pace of 87/895/3 on 147 targets in games with PJ Walker & Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB last year.

Dak Prescott is the only starting QB who averaged 20+ fantasy PPG last year with an ADP outside of the first 4 rounds this year.

Josh Jacobs faced more defenders in the box (7.2) than any RB in the NFL last year. He was the RB3 in PPG (19.3 PPG) the year prior & goes from an offense than ranked 25th in TD’s last year to an offense than ranked 7th.

Anthony Richardson’s 0.76 fantasy points per-dropback last season would’ve been the highest-mark since Lamar Jackson’s first MVP season (in which he averaged 28.1 fantasy PPG).

Travis Etienne finished 2nd in the NFL in YPC (5.1) amongst players with 200+ attempts in his first season. He finished 2nd in the NFL in broken tackles (64) behind only CMC last year.

De’Von Achane led the NFL last year in both yards before-contact (4.7) & after-contact (3.1).

Alvin Kamara has 50+ receptions & 75+ targets (or a pace of it) in seven consecutive seasons. He has finished Top-8 in PPG in 6/7 seasons, and has never finished below RB14 or 14 PPG.

Jonathon Brooks remains on the Panthers PUP List and will miss at least 4 games; Chuba Hubbard will be Carolina’s RB1 to start the year. He was a Top 10 RB his final 7 games of 2023.

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Cold Water:

Trevor Lawrence is 1-18 when his defense doesn’t record a takeaway. He leads the NFL in fumbles lost over the last three years, with 21; the next highest (Jared Goff) only has 14.

Jaylen Waddle continues to practice in a non-contact jersey.

Alvin Kamara is the only RB since 2010 to have over 150 rushes and over 10 punt returns in a season. Kyren Williams has been announced as the Rams punt returner.

Rico Dowdle in 2023 (his best season):
• 68th out of 130 RB’s in PFF Rushing Grade
• 50th out of 130 RB’s in YAC/attempt (2.91)
• 75th out of 130 RB’s in PFF Receiving Grade
• 85th out of 130 RB’s in PFF Pass-Blocking Grade

Games missed over the last three seasons:
Jonathan Taylor: 13
Kyren Williams: 12
Christian McCaffrey: 11
Breece Hall: 10
Derrick Henry: 10
James Conner: 10

ESPN asked 103 NFL players who is the most overrated quarterback in the league:
1) Bills Josh Allen

Keon Coleman averaged less than 2.00 YPRR for his collegiate career, cleared a 75.0+ PFF Receiving Grade in just 1/3 seasons (never above 80.0+), & ranked 20th, 59th, & 19th percentile vs Man, Zone, & Press as a route-runner.

Zamir White only played 8 snaps on third down all last season.

The Fun Stuff:

With permission from the family of Giants legend Ray Flaherty, Malik Nabers will wear soon-to-be-unretired No. 1.

The Bills know (basket)ball.

Mack Hollins Instagram page is just him giving home maintenance tips. - How to clean your AC Condenser.

This youth redefined the term “interception return” in practice against Aaron Rodgers.

Speaking of Rodgers, it looks like Stephen A. Smith has planted his flag.

With Dalvin Cook getting signed to the Cowboys, this is still the funniest content an NFL team has ever released.

Jacksonville’s MLB-turned-long snapper Ross Matiscik is on a mission to end every punt return before it even starts.

If this counted for a touchdown, every player on the field for the Niners would have just made their case for a roster spot.

Apparently, Tyreek Hill just doesn’t want to win the Super Bowl.

Samson Nacua ALMOST had the most insane TD.

Chiefs lineman Trey Smith playing a little bit of bully ball.

“You need to take negotiations more seriously” - Madden

Rookie RB by day, phenomenal singer by night - that’s Sione Vaki for you.

Keenan Allen has been working at Condé Nast as a Chicago-area food critic reviewing local deep dish establishments.

Will Caleb Williams make history?

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