"Whatever, wales is lucky we didn’t send over Derrick Henry"
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Welcome back!
“I’ve had a better life than Jets fans the last decade and I spent 3 of those years in prison” -Ryan Leaf
This was sent to me by my friend who’s a Jets fan, which goes to show: The only thing everyone can agree on is that it sucks being a Jets fan.
Now let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
Chart of RBs with great playoff schedules.
Mike White had three games last year with 30+ pass attempts. In those games, Jets running backs had target shares of 39%, 41%, and 37%. For some context, only one team since 2011 has finished a season with a running back target share above 38%.
Top-6 rookie WRs by receiving yards per game (since 1970; 10 games played minimum) 1. Odell Beckham (108.8)
2. Justin Jefferson (87.5)
3. Anquan Boldin (86.1)
4. Ja’Marr Chase (85.6)
5. Randy Moss (82.1)
6. Chris Olave (76.0)
Week 11 RB snap rate leaders:
93% - Najee Harris
82% - Josh Jacobs
79% - David Montgomery
78% - Saquon Barkley, Dameon Pierce , James Conner
76% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Jonathan Taylor
73% - Devin Singletary
70% - Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara
69% - Samaje Perine, Austin Ekeler
67% - Antonio Gibson
65% - Christian McCaffrey
“In two games since the Chase Claypool trade, things are looking prettyyyy pretty good for Pat Freiermuth:” - 86% route involvement - 30% target share - 32% air yardage share
Target per route run rates over the past month:
34% - Davante Adams
33% - Amon-Ra St. Brown
32% - CMC 32% - Tyreek Hill, Kyle Pitts
30% - Demarcus Robinsonlmao
29% - Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs
“First down targets are worth 20% more PPR points than targets coming on all other downs. First down target shares:”
37% - Davante Adams
35% - Tyreek Hill
32% - CeeDee Lamb, Drake London
30% - Stefon Diggs, Christian Kirk, AJ Brown
28% - Cooper Kupp
27% - Austin Ekeler, Mark Andrews, DJM
Yard per route run rate over the past calendar year: (min 250 routes)
3.04 - Tyreek Hill
2.74 - Cooper Kupp
2.69 - Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown
2.65 - Jaylen Waddle
2.58 - Davante Adams
2.53 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.51 - Tee Higgins
2.49 - Chris Olave
2.32 - Stefon Diggs
Christian Watson now leads all rookies WRs in touchdowns. He scored all of them in his last two games.
Cole Kmet hit a 20%+ target share for a third straight game in week 11. He didn't hit that target share once across his first eight games of the season.
Eagles target shares in first game without Dallas Goedert:
DeVonta Smith 39%
A.J. Brown 30%
“Daniel Jones aka Danny J Dimes is now fantasy's No. 10 QB in points per game. Despite having a bottom-5 pass-catching corps virtually all year.”
Antonio Gibson handled the lead RB duties for the Commanders in Week 11.
68% snaps
46% attempts
69% routes (elite)
14% target share
100% long-down distance
67% short yardage
100% two-minute (J.D. McKissic is out for the season.)
David Montgomery in the first game without Khalil Herbert:
80% snaps
51% attempts (31% Justin Fields)
76% route participation
24% target share 100% short yardage
79% long-down distance
70% two-minute
83% inside ten-yard line
Chiefs WR routes run in week 11 with Juju (concussion) and Mecole Hardman (abdomen) out. Kadarius Toney (hamstring) left early. On 38 Mahomes dropbacks:
Justin Watson 37
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 29
Skyy Moore 16
Kadarius Toney 9 (left early)
Marcus Kemp 1
Cowboys Week 11 RB usage:
Tony Pollard 39 snaps, 18 routes, 21 opportunities
Ezekiel Elliott 21 snaps, 5 routes, 16 opportunities
Tony Pollard has averaged 6.8 yards per touch this season. The most of any running back with 100 or more touches.
Joe Burrow has three of the top-20 highest graded games by a QB this season. Only Josh Allen (4) has more in the top-20. Burrow’s 93.1 PFF grade since Week 7 is the best in the NFL
Travis Kelce is averaging 7.4 more fantasy points per game than any other tight end.
TJ Hockenson's usage with the Vikings has been pretty amazing so far. In his three games, he's seen target shares of 23.1%, 20.0%, and 32.1%.
The Lions are designating their 1st round rookie WR Jameson Williams to return from PUP. He’s practicing this week.
Cold Water:
“Saquon Barkley's workload may be catching up to him. Check out his splits - first and second five games of his 2022:”
Avoided tackle rate
23% - 1st 5 games
12% - 2nd 5 games
Explosive rush (10+) rate
13.4% - 1st 5 games
8.6% - 2nd 5 games
Rushing EPA/Snap
-2.2 - 1st 5 games
-12.6 - 2nd 5 games
“Absolutely brutal upcoming schedule, too:” DAL - 10th in rush defense DVOA, 2nd overall WAS - 2nd vs rush, 12th overall PHI - 26th vs rush, 4th overall WAS again MIN - 13th vs rush, 18th overall IND - 6th vs rush, 10th overall"
Over D'Onta Foreman's last four games, he's scored 31.8 and 19 PPR points when facing Atlanta, and 4.1 and 2.4 PPR points when facing not Atlanta.
Zach Wilson this season among 35 qualifying QBs:
35th in completion percentage
34th in TD rate
24th in yards per attempt
26th in QBR
Robbie Anderson has played 114 snaps as a Cardinals. His stat line:
7 targets
1 catch
-4 yards
The Fun Stuff:
"whatever, wales is lucky we didn’t send over derrick henry"
First place in fantasy football entering Week 12 despite not even being top-five in points scored:
Or not so fun stuff: “Dropping Kyle Pitts in season-long has to be top-5 feeling I've ever experienced.”
“Hard to blame Zach Wilson when he’s hitting guys square in the chest and they’re dropping the ball. Most egregious was Devin McCourty dropping a pass about 30 yards downfield. Don’t just box score watch, analyze the actual game before you criticize!”
Melvin Gordon’s Instagram story.
Chad Kelly, finally freed. Thank you, Canada.
Friend: *accuses me of collusion* Me, with a 4-7 record:
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