"Were Brady and Brees even that good, or was it just that they got to play with Brandin Cooks?"
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Welcome back!
I added a new section for this week called “Potential Trade Targets,” where I put the headlines/analysis for players whose usage isn’t yet showing up on the fantasy point stat sheets, or are good breakout candidates. Good luck in Week 4!
-Will
Analysis & Hype:
Lions HC Dan Campbell says he’s seen enough through three weeks to potentially increase D’Andre Swift’s workload: “I, certainly, think you’re going to see a lot more of Swift, and he can very easily be out there first play,” Campbell said. “I think he’s done enough to earn that.”
D’Andre Swift’s usage so far:
-3rd in fantasy points
-4th in weighted opportunities
-5th in routes run
-3rd in RB Target share
-1st in RB receiving yards
He was also already on pace for 107 receptions this season.
“D'Andre Swift: 20.2 [Expected] FP/G (3rd among RBs)
Jamaal Williams: 13.7 [Expected] FP/G (17th)
So, D'Andre Swift is currently stuck in a 60/40 committee backfield
Assume that moves to just 70/30, and Swift would be leading all players at all positions in [Expected] FP per game (23.7)”
Yards created per touch through Week 3 among RBs:
1. Cordarrelle Patterson: 5.35
2. Kareem Hunt: 5.18
3. D'Andre Swift: 4.65
“D'Andre Swift has more fantasy points per game than Nicholas Chubb
Swift targets: 23
Chubb targets: 3
Targets matter in fantasy football”
Mike Williams on the season:
22 catches (tied for 3rd in NFL)
295 receiving yards (2nd)
4 TDs (tied for [2nd])
This kind of trust feels noteworthy: “Mike Williams just told me the game-winning TD started as a running play. The goal was to chew some clock and leave the Chiefs with less time. Justin Herbert changed the play. He said to Williams in the huddle, "Watch for the fade.””
Apparently Mike Williams can still be had for decent prices in Dynasty leagues, so get those offers out there before it’s too late.
Lamar Jackson leads the NFL in yards-per-completion and yards-per-carry.
Najee Harris had 19 targets today. That's the second-highest target total from a running back since targets started getting recorded in 1992. (Kamara had 20 in 2018.)
Ja’Marr Chase vs single coverage:
182 receiving yards (1st)
4 TDs (T-1st)
The highest-graded offensive rookie through three games: Ja’Marr Chase- 75.8
Most Fantasy Points by a Rookie WR
+ First 3 Career Games (Since 1985)
1. Anquan Boldin (70.8)
2. Roy Williams (68.8)
3. Terry McLaurin (59.7)
4. Calvin Ridley (57.2)
5. Ja’Marr Chase (56.8)
6. Randy Moss (55.1)
7. Andre Johnson (54.9)
“Brandin Cooks turns 28 on Saturday.
Among WRs <28 yr old, he has
More receptions than Calvin Johnson
More rec. yards than Antonio Brown
Higher yards per target than Randy Moss”
Brandin Cooks' last five games:
7/141/1
11/166/2
5/132
9/78/1
9/112
“Took Brandin Cooks three weeks to erase the narrative he’s only been great cause of his QBs lmao”
Wide receivers with at least 40% of their offense's air yards (PFF)
Brandin Cooks (56%)
Justin Jefferson (47%)
Calvin Ridley (47%)
Davante Adams (45%)
Ja'Marr Chase (44%)
Michael Pittman (43%)
D.K. Metcalf (43%)
DeVonta Smith (42%)
D.J. Moore (42%)
Tyreek Hill (41%)
HC Urban Meyer: “I thought (James Robinson) was fantastic. Probably need to get him the ball a little bit more. That was impressive considering who we were playing. We’re going to continue to get our running backs the ball.”
2021 Tight Ends by Route Share
1. Logan Thomas (94%)
2. Darren Waller (90%)
3. Travis Kelce (86%)
4. Mark Andrews (86%)
5. TJ Hockenson (84%)
6. Kyle Pitts (81%)
7. Tyler Higbee (80%)
8. George Kittle (77%)
List of players to record 10 300-yard passing games in their first two seasons:
- Dan Marino
- Patrick Mahomes — Only started one game his rookie year.
- Justin Herbert — Only three games into his 2nd year.
“Justin Herbert is on a warpath this season — legit improvement in accuracy and clean-pocket play. Will enter Week 4 top-five in PFF grade.”
“If this were any other wide receiver besides Hunter Renfrow giving Xavien Howard that ‘mama’s cooking’ like this we’d still be losing our minds” (Video)
Derrick Henry has 63 carries in the last 2 weeks. The next closest player has 38.
Cooper Kupp receiving TD in 2020: 3
Cooper Kupp receiving TD in two-plus games in 2021: 5"
“On Friday Stafford and Kupp sat in the corner at the end of practice for 35 minutes just going over coverages and routes. Stafford throws where he usually wouldn’t because he trusts Kupp”
Since kickers are people too: “Justin Tucker has now made 50 straight field goals in the 4th quarter or OT. 50! Of those 50, 21 have been from 40+ yards, 7 from 50+ yards and 1 from 66, the longest in NFL History. He's *never* missed a kick in the final minute of regulation (16-for-16). Incredible.”
Interesting WR breakout model.
Potential Trade Targets:
There are 15 WRs who have seen 28+ targets this season. The following are not among the current Top-25 in fantasy scoring:
- Stefon Diggs
- Cole Beasley
- Chase Claypool
- Calvin Ridley
- Jakobi Meyers
- Michael Pittman
Miles Sanders is averaging 8.7 yards per carry on 1st down, highest in the NFL. 42 backs have more carries on 1st down than Miles. This is hype or cold water, depending on whether you think Sanders’ usage will change.
“After a tough Week 1, Michael Pittman's given us two usable performances. He was WR13 last week, currently WR28 for Week 3. 12 targets in both games. Target share by week:
Week 1: 11.4%
Week 2: 35.3%
Week 3: 33.3%”
“Encouraging Week 3 snap rates:”
96% — Cole Kmet
88% — Jaylen Waddle
86% — Brandon Aiyuk
86% — Saquon Barkley
84% — Kyle Pitts
82% — David Montgomery
74% — Austin Ekeler
74% — Sony Michel
73% — Chuba Hubbard after CMC left the game
68% — Alexander Mattison
62% — Terrace Marshall
“Stefon Diggs still doesn't have a top-24 performance this year. Target shares by week, though, are still strong: 28.6%, 27.6%, 23.3%”
In case someone in your league is looking to quickly cash in from the big week: “Today was coming... Emmanuel Sanders' usage with a good QB like Allen foreshadowed a big day. He was 11th in the in air yards through the first two weeks.”
“I’m waiting for Calvin Ridley to have a HUGE game. He is averaging
9.7 targets
25% target share
85 air yards
It’s coming sooner rather than later”
Cold Water:
Since the start of last season, Antonio Gibson has 3 targets on third or fourth down. J.D. McKissic has 36.
Allen Robinson has 86 receiving yards through 3 games this year.
“[Justin] Fields held the ball longer than any QB in Week 3. And it’s not like he was throwing deep a ton… He held the ball because the game looked to be moving too fast for him.”
Justin Fields had less rushing yards in Week 3 (12) than Andy Dalton had in Weeks 1 (13) and Week 2 (25)
On Jonathan Taylor’s large number of redzone touches: “Just to play devil's advocate, he's getting a ton of attempts inside the 5 because he's been failing to convert them. It's a good thing they they continue to trot him out there, but it's concerning that he hasn't found the paydirt yet.”
Derrick Henry has more receptions than Alvin Kamara this season.
Rookie starting QBs are 1-10 so far this season:
Trevor Lawrence: 0-3
Zach Wilson: 0-3
Justin Fields: 0-1
Mac Jones 1-2 (win over Wilson)
Davis Mills: 0-1
Tua interceptions his whole rookie season: 5
Trevor Lawrence interceptions in 3 games: 6
Nick Chubb's target share by week:
Week 1: 7.4%
Week 2: 4.8%
Week 3: 0.0%"
Adam Trautman’s last two games 1 Target 0 Catches 0 Yards.
The Fun Stuff:
“Mitch Trubisky took Matt Nagy’s offense to the playoffs twice. He may be the greatest QB of all time.”
Touchdowns so far this season
Ja'Marr Chase 4
Penei Sewell 0
“Were Tom Brady and Drew Brees even that good or was it just that they got to play with Brandin Cooks?”
“the answer to the CEH vs Jonathan Taylor debates was D'Andre Swift all along”
Jameis Winston is now a mainstay in The Fun Stuff section.
“The Chiefs are undefeated since signing Josh Gordon.”
“Brandin Cooks on the Texans”
“Somebody in here just scored 180 points on that Justin Tucker field goal”
The student becomes the master.
Football might have peaked on this play from 1933. Watch it 15 times, and you’ll find 15 different absurdities.
Myles Garrett every time Justin Fields tried to scramble out of the pocket.
“in fantasy football ive found that sometimes i get things right and other times coaches are dumb”
“Turns out Robby Anderson’s offseason contract extension had a clause that he’s allowed a max of one catch per game. Weird, but rules are rules”
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