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We’re back, baby!

Feels good to fire this up again.

We’re also really excited this year to roll out our pre-season and in-season FF Newsletter Rankings and Draft Guide. If you want access to rankings from a group of nerds who consume far too much fantasy football news and analysis, you might want to check out our Patreon. The draft guide will be available for purchase as soon as NEXT WEEK, and will be included for all Patreon subscribers.

Glad to have you all back for the 2024 season. Let’s go get it.

-The FF Newsletter team

Analysis & Hype:

Zay Flowers as a Rookie:
• 6th in Total Route Wins (276)
• 6th in Route Win Rate (55.9%)
• 6th in Win Rate Vs. Man (49.2)

C.J. Stroud and Derek Carr had an NFL-high six 300+ yard passing games in 2023.

Christian Watson has 6 games above 17.5 Underdog points over the past two years. That's the same amount as Brandon Aiyuk and Jaylen Waddle.

When Christian Watson was actually healthy he led the Packers in snaps, targets, yards, and touchdowns.

WRs Yards per Route Run vs Cover 0, 1, 2-Man Coverage in 2023:
• Ceedee Lamb - 4.44
• Nico Collins - 4.36
• Tyreek Hill - 4.33
• DJ Moore - 3.86
• Brandon Aiyuk - 3.8

Tyreek Hill has been in a league of his own since 2022.

Even with a bad 2023, Jaylen Waddle ranks 13th amongst all NFL WRs in PPR fantasy points per game since he landed in the NFL. That is better than Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf, and Garrett Wilson, for a few examples. He has done this with only 19 career touchdowns over that four-year span.

There’s been 15 Second Year Wide Receivers to post a 26%+ Target Share, 93% went on to post an 18+ PPG Season. Garrett Wilson posted a 27.9% Target Share last season.

Tyjae Spears - 23.6 years old
• 5.5 Yards/Touch
• 3.15 YCO/Att
• 1.27 YPRR
• 7.0% Explosive Rush Rate

NFL Team Passing Rates in Neutral Game Scripts:
1st - Chiefs - 64%
2nd - Bengals - 57%

If you remove Week 13 when he played 13% of snaps - Tank Dell averaged
• 16.5 PPG
• 20.4% Target Share

Day Three Rookie Wide Receivers to post a 22%+ Target Rate and 1.50+ Yards per Route Run on 300+ Routes:
• Amon-Ra St Brown
• Puka Nacua
• Marques Colston
• Mike Williams
• Denarius Moore
• Demario Douglas

Russell Wilson in 2023: 26 TDs, 8 INTs, 98 QB rating.

Career Yards per carry:
• Devin Singletary (4.5), Saquon Barkley (4.3)
Career Explosive run play rate:
• Singletary (12.4%), Barkley (10.5%)

Yards per Route Run in 2023:
• Nico Collins - 3.10
• Tank Dell - 2.22
• Stefon Diggs - 1.99

The NEW Texans WR Corps (2023 PPG, Target Share)
• Nico Collins (17.4 (#7), 22.7%)
• Stefon Diggs (16.1 (#13), 29.5%)
• Tank Dell (15 (#18), 20.4%)

2024 Draft Class WRs to post a 90.0+ PFF Receiving Grade in 2023:
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Malik Nabers
• Jacob Cowing
• Malik Washington

Sub-170-pound WRs taken in the top-100 since 2011:
• Marquise Brown
• Devonta Smith
• Tutu Atwell
• Tank Dell

Top RBs in Yards Created per Rush:
• Keaton Mitchell - 4.29
• Jaylen Warren - 3.63
• Emari Demercado - 3.45
• Christian McCaffrey - 3.41
• Chase Brown - 3.31

Cooper Kupp only played 12 games last year but still had 4 games w/ 10+ Targets & 20+ Fantasy Points. He also finished the year with the 9th most Redzone Targets & 7th highest Snap Share.

Power Five Wide Receivers to post 22.0+ PPG and 3.00+ Yards per Team Pass Attempt as a Sophomore and Junior.
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
<end of list>

Zamir White touches:
• All of 2022 and Weeks 1-14, 2023: 43
• Weeks 15-18, 2023: 93

2023 Tight End Yards Per Route Run:
1. George Kittle - 2.22
2. Trey McBride - 2.03
3. Mark Andrews - 1.96
4. Travis Kelce - 1.92
5. TJ Hockenson - 1.89

RBs with the Easiest Fantasy Playoff Strength of Schedule:
1. Rhamondre Stevenson
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Alvin Kamara
4. David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs
5. Aaron Jones

Alvin Kamara, who’s averaged 17+ PPG in six of the last seven years, is currently going off the board the 7th round.

QBs with the Easiest Fantasy Playoff Strength of Schedule:
1. Derek Carr
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Will Levis
4. Kirk Cousins
5. Drake Maye

Completion Rate Inside the 10-yard Line, Last Two Seasons (min. 35 dropbacks)
64% - Brock Purdy
62% - Patrick Mahomes
57% - Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo
56% - Dak Prescott, Ryan Tannehill
…
43% - Kyler Murray
42% - Sam Howell, Kenny Pickett, Jalen Hurts
41% - Desmond Ridder
39% - Derek Carr

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the only two QBs in NFL history with 125+ pass TD and fewer than 50 interceptions in their first 6 seasons.

Career regular season touches:
• Derrick Henry: 2,185
• Joe Mixon: 1,854
• Alvin Kamara: 1,820
• Josh Jacobs: 1,502
• Saquon Barkley: 1,489
• Aaron Jones: 1,449
...
• Raheem Mostert: 766

Travis Etienne Year-over-Year:
• YPC: 5.1 (6th) in 2022, 3.8 (36th) in 2023
• RYOE/Att: 1.07 (3rd) in 2022, -0.29 (37th) in 2023
• Explosive Run%: 7.3% (8th) in 2022, 3.7% (31st) in 2023
• Yards Before Cont/Att: 2.21 (2nd) in 2022, 1.15 (40th) in 2023
Could be hype (bounceback candidate), could also be cold water (clear downtrend)

The new Raiders OC was the Packers’ pass-game coordinator for Davante Adams' 115-1374-18 and 123-1553-11 seasons - his best two years of his career.

Cold Water:

Total EPA when targeted:
41. Noah Brown, 25.3 (season)
42. Jayden Reed, 25.4 (season)
44. Kalif Raymond, 24.2 (season)
45. Drake London, 23.2 (season)

Ravens' ranks in total RB receptions since Lamar took over:
• 30th
• 31st
• 29th
• 30th
• 31st

Rookie Quarterbacks drafted in the Top 3 to post LESS than 12.0 PPG:
• Mitch Trubisky
• Bryce Young

Seasons with 1,000+ Receiving Yards:
Zach Ertz - 1
Mark Andrews - 1
Kyle Pitts - 1

PPR Points by Number of Years in the NFL Compared to Player’s Career Average:
1 - 85.9%
2 - 122.2% - Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson
3 - 120.7%
4 - 120.1%
…
8 - 73.1% - Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Austin Ekeler
9 - 61.7% - Derrick Henry

Tua Tagovailoa fantasy points per game by month in 2022-23:
• September: 22.1
• October: 18.7
• November: 16.9
• December: 14.1
• January: 10

Ray Davis - is older than:
• Javonte Williams
• Isiah Pacheco
• Dameon Pierce
• Kenneth Walker
• Kyren Williams
• Tyler Allgeier

Jayden Daniels is 23 years old. Lamar Jackson at 23 had already:
• 30-7 as a Starter
• Won a unanimous NFL MVP

Brandon Aiyuk had the 7th most receiving yards in the league despite having the 52nd most routes run.

Trey Benson didn’t have a single collegiate season with 15.0+ Rushing PPG or 5.0+ Receiving PPG. There’s been 13 Running Backs that also failed to post either in their collegiate career, but still got drafted on Day Two. Just TWO (15.4%) posted an RB1 Season.

Zack Moss has never topped 183 carries in a season.

Longest streak of games with an interception in the 2023 season
9 - Josh Allen
7 - Sam Howell
6 - Jimmy Garoppolo
5 - Joe Flacco, Jordan Love

The Fun Stuff:

76 seconds of Tyreek Hill running right past dudes.

Marcedes Lewis was drafted earlier than someone who is now a head coach.

MYLES GARRETT YOU PUT THAT DOWN THIS INSTANT YOUNG MAN!

Who’s stopping this WR duo?!

Jerry Jeudy has more receiving yards per game (53.5) than his good friend Steve Smith Sr. did through four years (46.5)

Fake FG → Fake Punt → Touchdown… all on one play. A must watch.

“I was thirsty” - Tucker Kraft

Caleb Williams Arm Strength

It’s Will Levis Time - Will Levis

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