Welcome to the George Pickens Newsletter
Welcome back!
We’re in the thick of it, now. What is “It” you ask? Super unclear camp headlines and hype.
Here we go.
Analysis & Hype:
21 WR’s since 2000:
• were early-declares
• were drafted in the first two rounds
• put up 800+ yards as a rookie
18/21 (86%) hit or paced for 1,000+ yards in year two.
This is a George Pickens tweet.
George Pickens caught 67.9% of his contested targets as a rookie – best in the NFL amongst player with 20+ contested targets.
There’s been five RBs to post multiple 10%+ Receiving Yard Shares in college and get Drafted in the Top 20
• Reggie Bush
• Christian McCaffrey
• Saquon Barkley
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Bijan Robinson
So far, the first three all had a 20%+ Rookie Target Share.
Of all first round RBs ever, these were the highest freshman receiving yard market shares:
• Chris Johnson - 10.0%
• Christian McCaffrey - 9.1%
After Jahmyr Gibbs went 12th Overall, his whopping 21.7% became the clear highest ever.
There’s only been two players in all of Fantasy Football to post 25+ PPG in each of the past three seasons
• Patrick Mahomes
• Josh Allen
QBs that have scored 25+ fantasy points at the highest rate since 2020:
• Josh Allen 49%
• Patrick Mahomes 42.9%
• Jalen Hurts 41.2%
• Kyler Murray 36.6%
• Dak Prescott 36.4%
…
• Trevor Lawrence 8.8%
Tight end receptions vs. man to man coverage, last two years:
• Mark Andrews 61
• Travis Kelce 58
No one else has more than 30.
Last year, Aaron Jones was 7th in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in broken tackles per attempt, and 3rd in PFF’s rushing grade. He has the 5th-most receptions, the 6th-most receiving yards, and the 2nd-most receiving TDs among running backs in the last two seasons.
In his seven starts from 2020-21, Alexander Mattison averaged 23.3 touches for 118 yards and 0.72 touchdowns per game. That production would have beaten out Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb last season. Mattison also posted the No. 14 rushing grade at PFF in 2022.
Alexander Mattison’s rushing yardage prop (875.5) is higher than Christian McCaffrey (850.5).
From Week 13 through the Divisional Round – a seven-game span – Isaiah Hodgins caught 34-of-44 targets for 358 yards (51.1 per game), and five touchdowns.
Rashaad Penny has posted 100+ rushing yards in seven of the 10 games where he saw at least 12 carries. (He averaged an eye-popping 7.39 yards per carry in those games.) Penny also led the league in yards after contact per attempt in both 2021 and 2022.
At camp on Monday, Mac Jones completed eight passes. Four went to JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu had nine games with at least five targets last year, and he averaged 15.8 PPR points per game over that span.
Since 2018, 322 college players have run at least 140 Vertical routes; Marvin Mims ranks 7th in yards per route run. Russell Wilson targets this route more than any QB.
In six of the ten full seasons Matthew Stafford has played, he's supported multiple top-36 wide receivers.
Completion % on passes thrown less than five yards (min. 75 att < 5 yards):
• 80% - Geno Smith
• 79% - Justin Herbert
• 78% - Dak Prescott, Davis Mills
[…]
• 69% - Joe Flacco
• 68% - Zach Wilson
• 66% - Mike White
• 62% - Deshaun Watson
In his final 7 healthy games last year, Jerry Jeudy averaged 17.3 PPG
Tyler Lockett in 2022 was top 5 in success rate versus man coverage at 78.9%.
Wide Receivers in 2022 with 2.40+ Yards per Route Run and a 25%+ Target Share:
Justin Jefferson
AJ Brown
Davante Adams
Cooper Kupp
Tyreek Hill
Stefon Diggs
Amon-Ra St Brown
Chris Olave
Deshaun Watson had 175 rushing yards last season in 6 games. Over a 17 game season that would be 496 rushing yards.
Brian Robinson caught 35 balls his last year at Alabama.
Jahmyr Gibbs caught 44 balls his last year at Alabama.
Browns GM Andrew Berry: "A big reason that we drafted Jerome Ford in '22 was because of his ability as a receiver, and we think that he'll be able to play that role really well."
During the 2021 college season Desmond Ridder had an adjusted completion percentage of 54% on 20+ yard passes, which ranked better than CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis and Brock Purdy that year.
Cold Water:
There’s only been three QBs to post less than 15.0 Passing PPG in each of the past three seasons:
• Andy Dalton
• Jacoby Brissett
• Daniel Jones
With Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss injured, the only healthy player on the Colts roster with 100+ career NFL carries is Gardner Minshew (112).
In Justin Fields first 25 games:
Cmp% 59.9
Passing YPG 162
TDs 24
INTs 20
Rating 80.8
Record 5-20
Through three practices, the Patriots still haven’t seen Mike Gesicki, Kendrick Bourne or Tyquan Thornton catch a pass in a competitive 7-on-7 or 11-on-11 drill.
Courtland Sutton averages 10.5 PPG when Jerry Jeudy is active.
Daniel Jones stats last year vs his career average:
Yards per attempt: 6.7 to 6.8
Yards per game: 220 to 200.
Touchdowns per game: 0.9 to 0.94
12 of the last 15 Super Bowl winning teams won without a 1000 yard rusher.
TE Section
Coop’s annual TE’s to avoid article has been released. George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Pat Friermuth, Gerald Everett, and Irv Smith.
Dallas Goedert has averaged 3.8 touchdowns a year and has never had over 5. He also has only had two end-zone targets in each of the last two years.
The 49ers had 8 games this year where all of their top weapons were healthy. Here's how the targets shook out:
• Deebo Samuel - 48
• Brandon Aiyuk - 48
• Christian McCaffrey - 40
• George Kittle - 34
Gerald Everett has never played 80% of the Charger’s snaps and is projected to be 5th on the team’s target hierarchy.
Since adding Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals #1 TE has struggled to earn targets. Finishing 4th in 2021, and 5th in 2022 in teams receptions. Irv Smith does not appear to be an exception.
The Fun Stuff:
Do you think he’s for real or just Lion about this?
This one’s for everyone who’s ever studied for the wrong test.
Barefoot and forkless, we march on.
More like Younghoe Kool.
On JK Dobbins and divine intervention.
George Pickens, ladies and gentlemen. (And Joey Porter Jr. right after)
From our vantage point, 35 five-year-olds is probably an underestimate.
Josh Allen doesn’t forget.
Every time someone doubts him, Deuce Vaughn gets a little bit shorter.
Cincinnati Bengals fans are supporting their QB.
Michael Gallup 1-handed catch vs Stephon Gilmore
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