'Welcome to the “fantasy football is dumb and I’m never ever playing it again...” part of the season'
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Welcome back!
Good luck to those of you in the playoffs (JT managers), or in win or go home games this week. Let’s make those finals!
In unrelated personal news:
If you’re into NFTs, I work with an illustration team for one of my day jobs and we recently announced an NFT project we’re working on. It’s still in production, so if you’ve ever wanted to be “early”, we’d love to have you check it out. We have some fun plans for it and are pretty excited. You can follow on Twitter and/or get on the mailing list to stay updated on when they drop. I know some folks have reservations over energy consumption with NFTs, and I get it, which is why we’re launching on a network that’s fast/efficient and has been rated carbon neutral.
While I’m shamelessly plugging my work, in my other day job, we also just launched a new update for a product we run for marketing/PR/social media professionals (or people who are just generally interested in upcoming events) which helps you see/discover upcoming internet and national events. So if that’s your line of work, would love it if you check it out. If it’s something you could use, the team approved a discount of 25% off for FF Newsletter readers — use code: FFNewsletter.
I tend to sometimes skirt my real life work responsibilities to do this newsletter because, well, fantasy football is more fun. But I’d like to think that making those plugs just now puts me squarely in the fully justified column, so thanks.
Now on to the analysis! We got a good one this week.
Analysis & Hype:
“Jaylen Waddle is tied for 2nd In NFL (not rookies, the NFL) in receptions (86). Only Cooper Kupp has more as of now. He’s also 12th in NFL in receiving. Waddle really is everything they said he was.”
Jaylen Waddle is 15 receptions away from the rookie record (Bolden - 101). Seems like the only thing Urban Meyer has done right is give Jaylen Waddle a near-perfect draft rating.
Most games with 8+ catches this season
Cooper Kupp - 7
Jaylen Waddle - 6
Javonte Williams in his first career start:
* 178 yards from scrimmage (most amongst all RB in Week 13)
* 29.8 fantasy points (most amongst all RB)
* 76 receiving yards (most amongst all RB)
* 3.17 yards per carry after contact (most amongst all RB)
Javonte Williams is the first rookie in Broncos franchise history to have 100+ rush yards and more than 75 rec yards in a single game. He also happened to do it against the Chiefs which hadn’t allowed a 100 yard rusher all season.
“Devonta Freeman out-snapped Latavius Murray 48-13, out-carried him 14-2, and ran more routes 22-6 Freeman is a high-end RB2 when looking at his usage.”
Looking for and article gushing over Kyler Murray? Here it is: “Is Kyler Murray the greatest QB the state of Texas has ever produced?”
Most receiving yards per route among TEs:
George Kittle - 2.5
Rob Gronkowski - 2.3
Tua Tagovailoa completed 27-of-33 (81.8%) of his passes on Sunday, making him just the 4th QB in NFL history to complete at least 80% of his passes in back-to-back games with at least 30 attempts.
Tua has now completed 70.5% of his passes this season, 2nd in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa:
Week 11: 81.8% completion pct
Week 12: 87.1% completion pct
Week 13: 84.0% completion pct
“Diontae Johnson is the No. 7-scoring fantasy WR despite missing 1 game. He hasn't fallen short of 11.7 FF pts in any game and today marks 10 consecutive finishes of 26th or better. Oh, and he's been targeted at least 10 times in 17 of his last 21 games.”
“Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Diontae Johnson are the only three players in the NFL with target-per-route rates over 30% versus man and zone coverages (minimum 200 total routes). Matchup-proof WRs.
Adams: 36%, 30%
Kupp: 33%, 30%
Johnson: 31%, 30%”
PFF gives Cordarrelle Patterson a 92.8 receiving grade which is the best in the NFL this season (min. 300 snaps).
Tee Higgins has the highest WR PFF grade over the past two weeks at 89.9.
Bengals WR target share in the 10 games all three have been healthy:
Tee Higgins 24.9%
Ja'Marr Chase 23.1%
Tyler Boyd 16.7%
“Hunter Renfrow has 8+ targets in seven of his last nine games and 7+ receptions in five of his last six
He’s topped 100 yards in consecutive games and is now averaging 16.1 PPR points per game
Good for WR16, ahead of Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, D.J. Moore, and Jaylen Waddle”
“Respectfully, What Tua is getting done behind this offensive line is pretty remarkable right now”
“Per PFF, Rhamondre Stevenson (78.4) is the highest-graded rookie running back (minimum 100 attempts). 317 of his 428 rushing yards this season have come after contact.”
Justin Jefferson since Week 7 bye | WRs:
89.7 Receiving Grade (1st)
667 receiving yards (1st)
31 First down catches (1st)
Most receiving yards since start of last season:
Justin Jefferson 2,609
Davante Adams 2,457
Stefon Diggs 2,382
Cooper Kupp 2,340
Travis Kelce 2,264
Most receiving yards (and targets) all-time for a WR through 28 career games:
1. Odell Beckham - 2828 (296)
2. Justin Jefferson - 2609 (237)
3. Randy Moss - 2320 (228)
4. Josh Gordon - 2272 (229)
5. Victor Cruz - 2253 (231)
Justin Jefferson among 119 WRs with 50+ targets since 2020 (PFF) :
PFF receiving grade: 91.9 (No. 2)
Receptions: 166 (No. 6)
Receiving yards: 2,609 (No. 1)
Receiving touchdowns: 14 (tied for No. 7)
Yards per route run: 2.67 (No. 3)
QB rating when targeted: 124.8 (No. 4)
WR Leaders by Total Fantasy Points (Since Week 9)
1. Justin Jefferson (126.0)
2. Elijah Moore (100.3)*
3. Keenan Allen (98.3)
4. Diontae Johnson (97.1)
5. Jaylen Waddle (93.7)
6. Stefon Diggs (92.5)
7. Cooper Kupp (89.2)
* QBs: Mike White, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson
No WR has more receiving TDs since Week 9 than rookie WR Elijah Moore (5).
Elijah Moore ranks 4th in fantasy points scored among WR over the last 6 games played, behind only Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, & Deebo Samuel.
Michael Pittman Jr has the 2nd most receiving yards of all 2nd year WRs with 882.
“Michael Pittman now with a 23.5% target share and 20.5% target per route run rate.”
WR leaders in targets since Week 11,
Diontae Johnson - 38
Cooper Kupp - 33
Justin Jefferson - 33
Elijah Moore - 31
Darnell Mooney - 31
Keenan Allen - 31
Jaylen Waddle - 30
Mark Andrews - 29
Chris Godwin - 28
Russell Gage - 27
Michael Gallup - 27
“Career-high 33 routes run for Josh Jacobs Sunday. Jalen Richard (COVID) was out and Kenyan Drake (ankle) left early, but Jacobs has an eye-opening 17.9% target share over last four games.”
Dallas Goedert has been the 3rd highest graded TE in 2021. In week 13 he had the 3rd highest grade for all offensive players.
“Since Week 9 (2020), Kirk Cousins has thrown 48 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions.”
Trevor Lawrence on James Robinson potentially having been benched the past two weeks: "Bottom line is: James is one of our best players, and he has to be on the field."
Broken tackle leaders (PFF)
QB
Total: Lamar Jackson (28)
Per touch: Taysom Hill (0.43)
RB
Total: Najee Harris (65)
Per touch: Javonte Williams (0.31)
WR
Total: Deebo Samuel (25)
Per touch: Kadarius Toney (0.32)
TE
Total: Travis Kelce (16)
Per touch: George Kittle (0.28)
Laquon Treadwell played on 93% of the snaps yesterday
Marvin Jones Jr. played on 83% of the snaps, while Laviska Shenault Jr. played on just 53% of the snaps
Receiving yards (targets) in Weeks 12 and 13:
Treadwell - 115 (13 targets)
Shenault - 63 (14 targets)
Jones - 54 (10 targets)
44-year-old Tom Brady is on pace for 5342 passing yards and 48 TDs. (17-game season) The NFL records are 5477 passing yards and 55 TDs.
Thread on /r/DynastyFF: “Meet the 2022 Class - WRs”
Thread on /r/DynastyFF: “Top 5 Buy Lows! Who should you target before the offseason?”
These threads on /r/fantasyfootball were fun to look back on: “Every dedicated player "league winner" thread this season.”
Cold Water:
“Patrick Mahomes scored 12.6 fantasy points tonight. He’s now failed to score more than 14 points in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s basically Matt Ryan.”
“Through Week 13:
DeAndre Hopkins - 19.6% target share, 2.14 yards per route run
Kirk - 17.8% tgt share, 2.15 YPRR
AJ Green - 16.8% tgt share, 1.85 YPRR
Rondale - 16.2% tgt share, 2.10 YPRR
Hopkins hasn't separated himself from his teammates, and turns 30 next summer.”
“PFF rates [Ezekiel Elliot] as the tenth least elusive running back in the NFL this season, comparable to backs like David Johnson, Carlos Hyde, and Latavius Murray. For context, Dalvin Cook has forced 37 missed tackles on 172 carries this season and Nick Chubb has forced 41 missed tackles on 150 attempts. Tony Pollard, who had another long touchdown run in Dallas' win over the Saints, has forced 23 missed tackles on 100 carries.”
With Waller sidelined, Foster Moreau has run 59 routes over the last two games. It's resulted in 2-37-0 on 8 targets.
Marquise Brown's average target depth before the Ravens Week 8 bye - 15.9 yards
Marquise Brown's average target depth since the Ravens Week 8 bye - 7.8 yards
“Once his suspension is over, it's possible that the #Buccaneers will release WR Antonio Brown, according to @RapSheet”
Any offensive player facing the Chiefs Defense in the fantasy playoffs: “The Chiefs have allowed a grand total of six (!!) total touchdowns since Week 8, which is the lowest mark in the NFL. They've allowed zero rushing touchdowns in that span.”
The Fun Stuff:
“when you win by 50 fantasy points, but your opponent didn't even set their lineup”
“Welcome to the “fantasy football is dumb and I’m never ever playing it again for real I swear I mean it this time” part of the season”
AJ Dillon is truly one of the great philosophers of our time: “Hot Take: Oysters are just underwater Pistachios”
Kyler Murray is gonna have "stick to playing football. I hope it works out for him.
“ESPN absolutely roasting Urban Meyer in their recap of James Robinson’s fantasy performance”
“Tee Higgins when I bench him in fantasy”
Gardner Minshew and his dad after the Eagles W.
“Looking through my lineups like I check the fridge. Hoping I’ll find something different.”
“fyi- the guy on the left is averaging more yards per game and more fantasy points per game than the guy on the right”
“I refuse to take Jonathan Taylor out of my lineups. Thinking about leaving him in as a sign of respect and gratitude”
Cooper Kupp giving the most technical answer I’ve ever heard from a wide receiver.
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