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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

For those of you who said “Good thing I drafted Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua,” our hearts go out to you especially. Somehow, we aggressively fast-forwarded to the “everyone is injured and I hate it here” part of the season - but fear not! We’ve got our eye on the field and ear to the street to help you find replacements; by popular demand, the “Waiver Weapons” section is back.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Brandon Aiyuk over the last three seasons without Deebo Samuel on the field:
• 29% target share
• 45% air yards share
• 2.92 yards per route run

Malik Nabers among all NFL WRs:
• 4th in PPG
• 1st in Target Share
• 9th in Yards per Team Pass Attempt

After two games, there are currently 2 WRs with 29+% target share and 44+% air yard share:
• Malik Nabers
• Garrett Wilson

Joe Alt just handed Jadeveon Clowney the worst game grade (30.5) of his 11-year NFL career.

Chuba Hubbard in Week 1:
• 40% RB rush share; 0% target share
Chuba Hubbard in Week 2:
• 59% RB rush share; 19% target share

JK Dobbins is the first Charger since LT (2007) with 130+ rushing yards in consecutive games.

JK Dobbins is the only RB to average 6+ yards per carry with 250+ career carries in NFL history.

Chris Godwin is the only WR who scored 20+ fantasy points in both WK1 & WK2.

40+ yard receptions since the start of 2023:
• Tyreek Hill: 11
• Rashid Shaheed: 9

Marvin Harrison Jr. top speed on his second touchdown of the day: 20.03 MPH

Marvin Harrison Jr. had more receiving yards (130) in the 1st quarter in Week 2 than his dad, Marvin Harrison Sr. had in any single game as a rookie in 1996.

Braelon Allen is the youngest player to ever score a TD in the Superbowl era (20 years and 239 days).

Andy Dalton has thrown for 300 passing yards 3 times for 3 different teams since the last time Aaron Rodgers has had a 300 yard game.

De'Von Achane is currently on pace for:
• 119 targets
• 110 receptions
• 1235 receiving yards
• 8-9 TD

De'Von Achane entered Week 2 with the highest PPG in NFL history (19.5). He raised it.

Week 2 RB snap rate leaders:
1. Zach Charbonnet (95%)
2. Saquon Barkley (91%)
3. Zack Moss (82%)

Breece Hall carries inside the five:
2023 (all season): 1
2024 (two games): 1

Through the first two games of the season (albeit one against Carolina), Derek Carr ranks first in:
• yards per attempt
• passer rating
• completion percentage over expected
• fantasy points per dropback

Derek Carr is currently the QB2 in fantasy while attempting the fewest passes in the league.

Six RBs have played on every snap inside the 10-yard line this year:
• Kyren Williams (14/14)
• Jordan Mason (11/11)
• James Conner (9/9)
• Rhamondre Stevenson (9/9)
• Rachaad White (8/8)
• Ezekiel Elliott (2/2)

Devin Singletary (5.1) is averaging more yards per carry than Saquon Barkley (4.5) this season.

Yard per route run rate leaders through two weeks of football:
• 4.83 - Rashid Shaheed
• 3.92 - Chris Godwin
• 3.92 - Justin Jefferson
• 3.71 - Nico Collins
• 3.59 - Jayden Reed
• 3.56 - Rashee Rice
• 3.35 - Alec Pierce
• 3.22 - De'Von Achane
• 3.00 - Austin Ekeler

George Pickens is currently leading the league with an air yards share of 77.3%.

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Cold Water:

Colts 4th quarter RB snaps in Week 2:
• Trey Sermon (14)
• Tyler Goodson (8)
• Jonathan Taylor (0)

Zach Wilson's net dropback EPA through his first 18 games: -101.8. Bryce Young: -162.5.

Most carries this season without a rush of 10+ yards:
1. Kyren Williams (30)
2. Zach Charbonnet (22)
3. Javonte Williams (19)

Javonte Williams has faced a stacked box on 57.9% of his runs thru 2 games. That's almost 1.5x more often than Jordan Mason with the 2nd highest stacked box% at 39.6%.

NFL kickers are currently 35/37 on 50+ yard field goals this season. The only two missed attempts have both come from Ravens kicker Justin Tucker.

D'Andre Swift has 48 rushing yards on 24 carries this year. 49 of those 48 yards have come after contact. He has faced 8+ defenders in the box on just 8.33% of his runs, the 5th lowest rate in the league.

NFL Passing touchdowns through two weeks:
• 2019: 105
• 2020: 110
• 2021: 110
• 2022: 105
• 2023: 86
• 2024: 69 (nice)

So far Jayden Daniels is only actually attempting a pass on 73.6% of his dropbacks. The rest are sacks, scrambles, and throwaways. The only other QB under 80% is Justin Fields at 78.2%.

Just four quarterbacks have an average target depth under 6 yards this season (PFF):
• Malik Willis (5.6)
• Gardner Minshew (5.6)
• Jayden Daniels (5.2)
• Patrick Mahomes (5.1)

Only two QB over the last 10 years have a Passer Rating below 40.0 over their first 3 career starts
• Nathan Peterman
• Malik Willis

Browns Week 2 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
• D'Onta Foreman - 15
• Jerome Ford - 9
• Pierre Strong - 3 (injured)

Bo Nix is 11-of-36 for 212 and 4 picks on passes more than five yards downfield.

Four offenses have scored just 1 TD through two weeks:
• Bears
• Steelers
• Broncos
• Panthers

The Giants became the first team in NFL history to score 3+ TD, allow no TD -- and lose in regulation.

Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold since leaving Carolina: 46 TDs - 14 INTs

Stefon Diggs had only a 1.3 aDOT in Week 1, playing 63% of his snaps out of the slot.

Dolphins WRs with Skylar Thompson in three full games (from 2022):
• Tyreek Hill: 9.0 targets, 5.3 catches, 46.3 yards, 0.0 TDs
• Jaylen Waddle: 5.3 targets, 3.7 catches, 37.0 yards, 0.0 TDs

Dalton Kincaid has -3 air yards this season.

Due to popular demand, we have brought back the waiver weapons section. LTank, we heard you, and hope you in particular enjoy.

Waiver Weapons - Week Three:

For those of you who are new, welcome to one of the parts of the newsletter that we write in-house. Each week, Camaron and Chris will each share a player that is available in <33% of Sleeper fantasy leagues who we think you could start in a given week (No kickers or defenses); sometimes Will joins in on the fun too, but he is traveling this week. We also come up with these players AFTER waivers have run to give us an added disadvantage. Let’s start it off with a BANG.

Camaron’s Pick: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, DAL (3% rostered on Sleeper) - Last week in our premium Discord I shared some advanced information about the Cowboys backup Tight End. Here’s what I shared: “If I had to bet on a player to be a top waiver add next week it'd be Luke Schoonmaker. Dudes a crazy athlete, former 2nd round pick, and is in that year 2/3 range that we like to see from Tight Ends.” Schoonmaker then put up a 15% target share, and caught all 6 of his passes and I thought for sure I was correct. Jake Ferguson is still nursing a knee injury and is unlikely to play, so I’m going to stick with the more athletic, younger player that could just straight up be the better player.

Chris’ Pick: Sam Darnold, QB, MIN (34% rostered on Sleeper) - I am cheating a little bit vs. the <33% stipulation we set out in the description above, but he is only 13% rostered on ESPN so I don’t feel that bad. Sam could be the next QB to join the “we were always good and just had to leave the Jets” club; it hurts me as a Jets fan to write this, but it looks like Darnold is finally showing what we paid for with the third overall pick all those years ago. Sure, his stats were helped along in Week 2 by a 97-yard touchdown from Justin Jefferson, but a) he threw that ball (it does indeed take two to tango), and b) that doesn’t change the fact that he is a top-10 QB in terms of fantasy scoring right now (albeit number 10) with several sweet matchups on the horizon over the next few weeks. Ironically, his toughest defensive test over that span comes in Week 5 against - you guessed it - the New York Jets. If you took a QB late in your draft + have been looking for other options in light of a lackluster start to the season (and missed out on Derek Carr this week on waivers), Darnold is definitely worth a bench spot, if not an outright start.

Trade Target Thursday:

Chris again - hope you listened to me last week and grabbed Josh Jacobs at a discount before he put up 32 carries in the new Malik Willis-led offense. If not, there’s still time (Jacobs hasn’t scored a TD yet this season + fumbled in Week 2, and thus has come in under projections for both of his first two games as a Packer), and extra tailwind to do so with MarShawn Lloyd also heading to IR - just expect that the price may have gone up a bit.

Now that I have your attention with proof that you should actually value the advice from this section, let’s lock in. This week’s Trade Target is George Pickens, who is screaming to be bought low. Nothing has changed about his offseason bull case - he is still the best WR in Pittsburgh by a wide margin, and they know it + plan around it; as mentioned above, he leads the NFL this season with an air yards share of 77.3%. What has changed is the dud he put up in Week 2… at least on paper.

All game, I was complaining in the game day channel of our premium subscribers Discord (shameless plug: don’t forget to sign up on Patreon) to anyone who would listen that Justin Fields was balling out but that penalties were taking it all away. Only in hindsight, with the help of a tweet from Ian Hartitz, did I realize that Pickens was also a victim of most of these calls. In a parallel universe, Pickens added to his 2-29-0 line against the Broncos with:

• a 51-yard catch on Pat Surtain that got called back for holding

• a six-yard TD reception (where he showed tremendous balance at the sideline, might I add) called back for OPI on Van Jefferson

• a 37-yard grab (plus whatever YAC he would have gotten) that ended up being DPI on Surtain

Put it all together, and that 2-29-0 (4.9 PPR points - WR64 on the week) becomes 5-123-1 (23.3 PPR points - tied with Justin Jefferson for WR9). As an added bonus, Pickens won’t be lined up against one of the best CBs in the league every week. Don’t walk - run! - to buy him low before the window is closed.

The Fun Stuff:

The referee on this play:
• Realizes Jefferson is coming his way, stops
• Goes 0-60, outsprints 49er defenders to stay out of their way
• Backpedals, stops on the goal line to make a potential call on a goal line tackle

Kyler Murray with the fade away like he’s Steph Curry.

At 6’2” and 285 lb, we might see the first ever convert from QB to lineman once this kid gets to college.

“Why does Caleb Williams look so bad?”

Just a few guys crossing their legs and being comfy.

If you’re gonna chip, chip like Bijan.

Need a new team name? This guy’s got you covered with a ton of great ideas.

Will Levis is on a generational run right now.

The Jets, deep in thought about an important question: does Lightning McQueen have car insurance or life insurance?

“Why does Caleb Williams look so bad?” Pt. 2!

“Josh threw up on the ball.” - Malik Willis

Josh Allen with the “and who are you?”

Josh Allen was a higher rated farming prospect than he was a football prospect coming out of high school.

How’s it taste, Tony Romo?

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