We could have filled the whole newsletter with Quentin Johnston lowlights

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

Preseason begins today. Actual real football that’s not really real football. The headlines will be sensational, and we’re here for it.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

DJ Moore is one of 20 wide receivers since 2006 to average 2.0+ Yards Per Route Run on 3000+ routes.

TE’s with 80+ receptions in one of their first 2 NFL seasons:
• Kellen Winslow Sr. (HOF’er)
• Keith Jackson
• Jason Witten (Future HOF’er)
• Antonio Gates (Future HOF’er)
• Kellen Winslow Jr.
• Jimmy Graham
• Rob Gronkowski (Future HOF’er)
• George Kittle (Future HOF’er?)
• Sam LaPorta
• Trey McBride

Rashaad Penny lead all players in Rushing Yards over Expected since 2006 (minimum 200 carries).

The last time Kyler Murray had a 1,000-yard WR he averaged 24.4 PPG & finished as the QB2 in fantasy.

Last season Nico Collins ranked:
• 7th in Points per Game
• 7th in PFF Receiving Grade
• 2nd in Yards per Route Run

Nico Collins averaged 3.1 yards per route run and earned a 90.6 PFF receiving grade in 2023. Both would have been career highs for Stefon Diggs.

Ja'Marr Chase's best season by yards per game (87.2) and yards per route run (2.51) would both be Justin Jefferson's worst season.

Jahmyr Gibbs without David Montgomery:
• 71.9% snap share (RB7)
• 18.0 expected fantasy points/g (RB4)
• 22.2 actual FPG (RB1)

Lions RBs Weeks 10-NFC Championship:
• Snaps: Jahmyr Gibbs 53%, David Montgomery 44%
• Rush attempts: Gibbs 41%, Montgomery 50%
• Routes: Gibbs 52%, Montgomery 32%
• Targets: Gibbs 13%, Montgomery 5%
• PPR points/game: Gibbs 16.7, Montgomery 13.6

2024 Rookie WR’s to average 3.00+ YPRR in a college season & declare-early for the NFL draft:
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Malik Nabers
• Troy Franklin

2022-23 off-target rates:
• 4.6% - T.J. Hockenson with Kirk Cousins at QB
• 9.9% - League average at TE
• 19.2% - Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts while sharing the field with Drake London:
• 598 routes
• 25% target share
• 34% air yardage share

In four games without Diontae Johnson, George Pickens was on pace for 1500 yards, and a 29% target share.

George Pickens led the league at 18.1 yards per reception in 2023.

The 2020 NFL Draft now has produced nearly $1.25 billion in quarterback contracts:
• Joe Burrow: Five years, $275M
• Tua Tagovailoa: Four years, $212.4M
• Justin Herbert: Five years, $262.5M
• Jordan Love: Four years, $220M
• Jalen Hurts: Five years, $255M

Jalin Hyatt had an average depth of target of 20+ yards last season.

RB Target Share Leaders on 3rd/4th downs:
1. Tyjae Spears - 20.5%
2. Bijan Robinson - 19.1%
3. Jaylen Warren - 16.1%

Highest EPA over first 750 dropbacks since 2000
1) Patrick Mahomes: .313
2) Brock Purdy: .277

Most scrambles in a power five season dating back to 2014, per PFF:
1. Drake Maye, 2022 (76)
2. Jayden Daniels, 2022 (70)
3. Jayden Daniels, 2019 (67)
4. Jacoby Brissett, 2014 (66)

There’s only been TWO Wide Receiver Prospects that posted a 25+ Collegiate PPG Season in the SEC, tested with a 9.00+ Relative Athletic Score, and got Drafted in the Top 10:
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Malik Nabers

When healthy Chris Olave was on pace for:
• 150+ targets
• 100+ receptions
• 1300+ yards

Lowest Offensive Tackle Pressure rate allowed in true pass sets over the last decade (minimum 1250 snaps)
1. Tristan Wirfs: 3.6%
2. Tyron Smith: 6.2%
3. Andrew Whitworth: 6.3%
4. Lane Johnson: 6.5%
5. Laremy Tunsil: 6.8%

Quarterbacks to post MULTIPLE 23+ PPG Seasons in the past three years:
• Patrick Mahomes
• Josh Allen
• Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow
• Dak Prescott

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Cold Water:

Xavier Worthy against press coverage in camp.

Highest rate of being stuffed in short yardage:
• 64% - Dameon Pierce
• 50% - Alexander Mattison
• 43% - Jerome Ford

Romeo Doubs scored 8.5 half-PPR PPG last season on an 80% route share.

Latavius Murray, Ty Johnson, Damien Harris, and Leonard Fournette totaled 48 Red Zone opportunities in 2023. James Cook had 47.

No WR has ever had more than 117 targets in an Arthur Smith (PIT) led offense.

Last year for the Falcons Drake London played 76% of the snaps and the second highest WR played 33%. That’s how Arthur Smith (PIT) rolls.

Josh Jacobs in 2023:
• -40.5 EPA (#142)
• 2.89 Yards Created Per Touch (#50)
• 2.1% Breakaway Run Rate (#48)

Alec Pierce led the entire league in snaps and finished as the WR73 in PPR.

No one within 15 yards & Daniel Jones just misses Wan’Dale Robinson.

Derrick Henry yards per game
2020: 126.7
2021: 117.1
2022: 96.1
2023: 68.6

Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards last season and finished as the QB19 in fantasy points per game.

Stefon Diggs had the sixth most targets in the league last year and finished as the fantasy WR14 in Points Per Game.

Courtland Sutton scored 10 TDs last year and never reached 20 PPR fantasy points in a single game.

The Fun Stuff:

I still cannot believe Calvin Ridley didn’t catch this.

Trent Brown (6’ 8”) and Amarius Mims (6’6”) walking with Zack Moss (5’9”).

The real Seahawks WR1

Mack Hollins:
• Doesn't wear shoes
• Doesn't use utensils
• Thinks small cats 'steal your soul'
• Hasn't eaten a vegetable in 3 years

Mahomes → Toney → Mahomes → Toney → Worthy

Jordan Love is the highest paid NFL QB in history

Anyone else hear the Jurassic Park theme music?

Kyler Murray to Greg Dortch

148 seconds of Jahmyr Gibbs making dudes miss.

The Raiders gave their 2024 season ticket holders an epic pirate treasure chest as a gift with their tickets.

Drake London stepping up in the pocket and throwing left handed.

In respect of Kenyan Drake’s retirement: The Miami Miracle.

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