Wan'Dale Robinson Target Monster
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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!
Some of us really drafted Travis Etienne over Tank Bigsby. Why do we even play this game?
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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 130 receiving yards are his most in a game since the 2020-2021 season Wild Card round with the Steelers. That was 1,366 days ago.
Kareem Hunt's 102 rushing yards are his most in a game since a 2020 season game with the Browns. That was 1,422 days ago.
Wan'Dale Robinson is currently 3rd in the NFL in targets.
Tyrone Tracy is the only RB in the NFL to gain positive yardage on every single run in a game with 15+ rush attempts during the 2024 season.
Josh Downs this season:
• Targets per route run: 35.1%
• First downs per route run: 14.9%
• Yards per route run: 2.34
Josh Downs ranks 1st in the NFL in Route Win Rate (78.8%) and 7th in target share (28.6%).
First Round Rookie Wide Receivers to post 80+ PPR in their first five games:
Ja’Marr Chase
CeeDee Lamb
AJ Green
Odell Beckham Jr.
Calvin Ridley
Malik Nabers
Brian Thomas Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr: 17 REC, 279 YDS, 4 TD
Brian Thomas Jr: 22 REC, 397 YDS, 3 TD
Over the past four Dallas Cowboys games:
• CeeDee Lamb: 31 targets, 62.7 PPR points
• Jalen Tolbert: 27 targets, 54.5 PPR points
Houston Texans following the Nico Collins injury:
Target share:
• 27% - Stefon Diggs
• 20% - Dalton Schultz
• 13% - Tank Dell
Air yardage share
• 36% - Diggs
• 27% - Schultz
• 13% - Dell
Rashod Bateman has created separation on a league-high 72.73% of snaps against press coverage. The next-closest receiver is at 61.54% after five weeks.
Tank Bigsby out-snapped Travis Etienne for the first time in his career today. Bigsby in Week 5:
• 41% snap rate
• 13-101-2 rushing
• 60% snap rate and both rush attempts from inside of the 10-yard line
• Tank Bigsby this season: 1st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt, 3rd in PFF grades, 50.0% Success Rate, 1st in Yards Per Carry
• Travis Etienne this season: 18th in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt, 55th in PFF grades, 56.6% Success Rate, 27th in Yards Per Carry
Tyrone Tracy Jr. in his first start:
• 18 rushes for 129 yards, all gained positive yardage.
• 62% snap rate
• 82% RB rush share
Four wide receivers are tied for the NFL lead with eight catches of 20+ yards this season:
• Justin Jefferson
• Nico Collins
• Jayden Reed
• Darnell Mooney
Daniel Jones is currently averaging more fantasy PPG than Patrick Mahomes.
As it stands today, LSU accounts for 5 of the 10 best Fantasy PPG seasons for Rookie WRs since 1998 - OBJ (1), Nabers (2), Chase (4), Jefferson (7), and Thomas Jr. (10)
Rashid Shaheed's weekly target shares: 20.8%, 26.6%, 21.7%, 30.5%, 28.1%.
Caleb Williams passer rating by game this season:
• Week 1: 55.7
• Week 2: 51.0
• Week 3: 80.8
• Week 4: 106.6
• Week 5: 126.2
Kirk Cousins is the 1st player in NFL history with a 450-yard passing game for 3 different teams (Commanders, Vikings, Falcons).
Kirk Cousins joined Tom Brady (2011 vs MIA) as the only players in NFL history with 500+ passing yards and 4+ passing touchdowns in a primetime game.
Darnell Mooney played the majority of his 64 game career with Justin Fields. His career best games are from 6 starts with Andy Dalton and 5 with Kirk Cousins.
Rate of drives to reach the red zone (or score a TD prior)...
58.7% - WAS
47.9% - SF
47.7% - DET
47.5% - PHI, NO
44.7% - CIN
Cold Water:
Rate of drives to reach the red zone (or score a TD prior)...
26.2% - DEN
25.4% - CAR
23.3% - LV
21.1% - MIA
15.3% - CLE
George Pickens running routes on Sunday.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was cut by the Patriots this offseason, has more receiving yards on Monday (117 yards) than any Patriots pass-catcher has had in a game this season.
Out of 118 players, the Patriots have the two-worst at average separation.
• No. 118: KJ Osborn
• No. 117: Ja'Lynn Polk
Saints receivers:
• Rashid Shaheed: 19 rec-338 yards-3 TD (34 targets)
• Chris Olave: 22-275-1 (28)
Each team's feature RB against the Chiefs defense have combined for 66 carries, 169 yards (2.6 ypc).
Breece Hall has gained just 27 rushing yards the past 2 games. 34 of these have come after contact. This means he’s gained -7 yards before contact the past 2 weeks…
Breece Hall yards gained on 19 rush attempts in Weeks 4-5 from least to most: -5, -2, -2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 6, 7, 10
Only 14 of Garrett Wilson’s 22 targets in Week 5 were charted as catchable.
Most unrealized air yards this season. Total distance that incomplete targets traveled in the air (TruMedia):
• Amari Cooper (487)
• Courtland Sutton (359)
• Dontayvion Wicks (320)
Jets points scored in Weeks 1-5, 2023: 93
Jets points scored in Weeks 1-5, 2024: 93
Tank Dell ranks 4th worst in yards per route run among wide receivers.
Most touches without a touchdown this season:
1. Najee Harris (94)
...
2. Javonte Williams (70)
3. Rachaad White (68)
Deshaun Watson is averaging -0.30 EPA per dropback, the lowest number for any Browns QB in Weeks 1-5 since at least 2000. The second-worst performance? Deshaun Watson last season (-0.20).
Deshaun Watson is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt. Bryce Young averaged 5.5 last season.
Amari Cooper this season:
• 94% routes
• 28% targets
• 51% air yards
• 10.6 fantasy points per game…
Garrett Wilson’s 22 targets for 101 receiving yards is the second-lowest for any pass-catcher with 20+ targets in a game (since 2006). The lowest was 79 yards on 21 targets, by Davante Adams in 2015, also catching balls from Aaron Rodgers.
Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson face the #32 and #31 defenses in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs this week.
Deebo Samuel missed tackles forced on receptions (PFF)
• 2021: 20 MTF on 77 receptions (26%)
• 2022: 32 MTF on 56 receptions (57%)
• 2023: 25 MTF on 60 receptions (42%)
• 2024: 1 MTF on 17 receptions (6%)
It has been 641 days since the Denver Broncos last had a player with 90+ rushing yards. For Dallas, the next closest team, it’s been 379.
Aaron Rodgers is 0-38 when trailing in the fourth quarter to teams with a winning record.
Aaron Rodgers since January 2022
• 3 Pass TD games: 1
• 3 Interception games: 2
Joe Flacco now has more 20 yard runs than the Dallas Cowboys all season.
KhaDarel Hodge had more fantasy points than Bijan Robinson last week.
Waiver Weapons - Week Five:
Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Well we shot for the moon last week and could barely even make it off the ground. While Camaron’s waiver weapon did play more snaps than Rhamondre, he did not get many opportunities and produced very few fantasy points. Meanwhile Erick All only had 2 targets on the week despite Joe Burrow throwing the ball 39 times. A disappointing week, so let’s do better.
Camaron’s Pick: Darius Slayton, WR, NYG (14% rostered on Sleeper) - During the game against the Cowboys, rookie sensation Malik Nabers was forced to leave the game early due to a concussion and unfortunately that concussion is looking like it might take him out for two weeks in a row. Last week with Nabers out, WR Darius Slayton stepped up with a 26.2 PPR point performance with a 32% target share. Slayton looks ready to step up to the challenge agains the Bengals again this week. If Nabers does end up playing consider Xavier Hutchinson, WR, HOU.
Chris’ Pick: Tank Bigsby, RB, JAX (31% rostered on Sleeper) - It’s shocking to me that Bigsby is only rostered in 31% of Sleeper leagues and yet is unavailable in every one I compete in. Maybe that stat isn’t updated yet, but he is also listed as 40% rostered on ESPN (which shows a +30% spike in the past week, so I’m assuming that’s up-to-date). Regardless, those numbers should both be much higher, as he is ascending rapidly in value. Last week was the first time he ever outsnapped his backfield-mate, Travis Etienne Jr., but Tank has been outperforming him all season - not to mention the rest of the NFL, which he leads in yards per carry among RBs (sorry Kyler and Jayden Reed) with 30+ carries (sorry… Emari Demercado?). Jacksonville has a decently soft run of matchups for RBs over the next few weeks - Chicago (10th most points allowed vs. RBs for fantasy), NE (11th most) and GB (17th). Assuming Tank has a few more strong performances between now and then, you might be able to flip him for someone with a soft playoff schedule before the going gets tough - JAX faces PHI, MIN and DET over the following three weeks, then go on bye.
Trade Target Thursday:
Welcome, class! Before we jump in, I just want to clarify that this section is focused solely on redraft. Someone last week raised a question in the comments that highlighted this may have been unclear to-date, so now you know.
Today’s lesson is about a concept I like to call “schedule arbitrage.” Everyone knows about buying low and selling high, but what we’re trying to do here is time the market and work trades with an exit strategy - essentially, renting players. De’Von Achane is on a bye this week (which should only help you buy even lower), but when he comes back he faces the easiest schedule, at least until Week 12 - five defenses that rank in the top eight in PPR points allowed to RBs (Ian’s tweet doesn’t include LV Week 11, who are allowing the 7th most).
Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, and for De’Von that starts to happen in Week 12. Miami’s late-season schedule includes the Patriots (11th most points for RBs - not bad), Green Bay (17th most - it’s getting worse) and Jets (25th most - gross) before the fantasy playoffs start; playoffs run through Houston (24th), SF (19th) and Cleveland (16th). Lucky for you, though, the trade deadline is pretty close to when it’s time to dump him - defaults are Nov. 16 on Yahoo or Nov. 29 on ESPN (mark your calendars now!).
Here’s the move, at least illustratively:
Buy Achane before his value climbs - ideally you’ll make a deal for him on his bye week, but bonus points if you “accidentally” get the deal accepted too late for it to clear by Sunday and keep your guy for Week 6
Ride the wave of good fortune outlined above until Week 10 (time to sell on Yahoo) or Week 11 (time to sell on ESPN) - make sure you check the deadline for your individual league
Target a guy like Jahmyr Gibbs, who (following the same theory in reverse) should see his value decline over the next few weeks against the likes of Minnesota (31st most - a.k.a. second fewest - PPR points allowed to RBs), Tennessee (13th fewest), GB (16th fewest), and Houston (9th fewest).
Enjoy Gibbs’ easy run over the last six weeks of the season against Indy, Buffalo, and Chicago 2x - all top-10 most points allowed to RBs - along with two middle-of-the-road matchups in SF (19th most) and GB (17th most)
Looking out at the schedule, I would try to move on to Gibbs after Week 10 even if your league’s deadline permits one more week of keeping Achane - the Jags (Detroit’s Week 11 opponent) are actually an even better matchup than Miami’s vs. the Raiders. By then, you might even be able to trade Achane for Gibbs + additional value. Obviously plans are fluid, guys may get hurt, Achane may underperform or Gibbs may overperform, etc., but it’s better to have a plan that you can adapt off of than spending time at the deadline thinking about who you want to grab for the final push.
P.S. - for the haters keeping score on my Bijan + Shaheed for Pickens + Jacobs deal at home, congratulations, as the Bijan and Shaheed side is up a few points after this past week. Shaheed’s days are numbered, though - the #Rattlersnake is apparently a big fan of Chris Olave. We’ll check back in next time ;)
The Fun Stuff:
C.J. Stroud with possibly the QB play of the season.
“It’s like I’m talking to [my daughter] Sterling.” - Patrick Mahomes
Bo Nix just wanted Payton to know how much he loved him.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s football IQ was on full display here; unfortunately you don’t get any fantasy points for it (unless you started Geno).
Joe Flacco just chilling in the middle of the Colts double pass play.
"Bro, it was miraculous. Jalen Tolbert literally sprained his f---ing nuts - excuse me, sorry guys - sprained his nuts the play before. Then comes back, makes the game-winner. Unbelievable." - Tyler Smith
Baker Mayfield’s version of Uncle Drew was more like Uncle Rico.
Dion Dawkins masterfully blending interior decorating and trash talk.
TE Charlie Kolar on his 64-yard catch.
George Pickens after the game was over.
Dak Prescott is the first QB in NFL history to throw an INT on two different days during the same game.
Did Deshaun Watson give up on his team, or did Watson realize there were too many players on the field in the huddle.
Kirk’s swagging, Kirk’s surfing, Kirk’s clean like dish detergent.
Sauce Gardner thought the team was about to get into an accident when the bus started driving in London.
Titans have a BYE this week but we still got our Will Levis moment via Jordan Love.
Wandale Robinson got caught on IG Live.
Travis Hunter might be a basketball star too???
“Bo! Speak up. They don’t F*****g know!” - Maxx Crosby
Vikings with the parent trap handshake.
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