Training Camp Spice
Welcome back!
We're feeling so stoked that players are back in uniform that we’d be happy watching Michael Thomas drink Gatorade at this point. The news cycle is gonna get real juicy in the coming weeks, and we’ll have you covered.
As always, you can join the discussion on this week’s headlines in /r/fantasyfootball and /r/DynastyFF
Now for the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
In games where he saw a full workload, Mike Williams averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game, with an average of 8 targets and 77 yards in 2022.
Raiders’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who spent his offseason recovering from a foot injury, passed his physical and is working on being ready for training camp.
DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines for DJ Moore and Mike Evans:
DJ Moore (ADP 55.5):
• 800.5 receiving yards
• 62.5 Receptions
• 4.5 TDs
• 169.55 Projected PPR Fantasy Points
Mike Evans (ADP 79.7):
• 925.5 receiving yards
• 70.5 Receptions
• 6.5 TDs
• 202.05 Projected PPR Fantasy Points
10 WRs have caught more than 25 TDs since 2020 (including playoffs)
• Davante Adams (45)
• Mike Evans (37)
• Tyreek Hill (34)
• D.K. Metcalf (32)
• Cooper Kupp (31)
• Stefon Diggs (31)
• A.J. Brown (30)
• Adam Thielen (30)
• Tyler Lockett (27)
• Gabriel Davis (26)
Gabriel Davis’ ADP is WR48. He was the only Wide Receiver last season to post a 15%+ Target Share on an average depth of target of 16.0+.
Chris Godwin (currently going as WR30) Fantasy PPG ranks by year:
• 2019: WR2
• 2020: WR15
• 2021: WR6
• 2022: WR15
Kansas City RBs last season:
• Pacheco – 7.9 PPG last year, RB27 ADP this year
• McKinnon – 11.5 PPG last year, RB42 ADP this year
Only two RBs ranked top-10 in YPC on both zone- and man-blocking concepts last season (according to Fantasy Points Data)
The first one is obvious: Nick Chubb (4.92 YPC-zone | 5.19 YPC-man).
The second?… Tony Pollard (4.85 YPC-zone | 5.75 YPC-man)
James Conner's role last season was incredible:
• RB1 in snap rate when team was leading (87.6%)
• RB12 in snap % when trailing (63.5%)
• RB9 in snap % inside-the-20 (71.2%)
• RB3 in routes run per game (22.3)
From an efficiency standpoint, there was no drop-off in Conner's game last year. Conner was 16th-of-42 RBs in yards after contact per carry (2.92) and was 15th-of-57 in yards after catch per reception (8.43) – just marginally behind CMC (8.44).
Arizona might struggle to score a lot of points, but the good news is that Conner is a great short-yardage back. Since 2018, only Derrick Henry (52.7%) has converted a higher rate of his carries inside-the-5 (goal-line) into touchdowns than Conner (52.5%) among RBs.
Last summer, many were intrigued by Chase Edmonds in a Shanahan-style run scheme. In his Miami tenure, Edmonds (Rachaad White’s biggest competition this season) ranked:
• 50th of 50 in YPC (2.86)
• 50th of 50 in YACO/attempt (1.74)
• 50th of 50 in MTF/attempt (0.02)
2021 PPR points per game:
• Michael Pittman (14, WR24)
• DJ Moore (13.9, WR25)
2022 PPR points per game:
• Pittman (13.5, WR22)
• Moore (11.7, WR34)
2023 ADP:
• Pittman (WR34, pick 67.3)
• Moore (WR26, 47.8)
In games where he started last season (Weeks 14-18), Brock Purdy averaged 18.6 fantasy points. That average would have made him the QB8 (PPG) on the season. You can currently draft him as the QB24 in the 15th round.
Target shares in the six games Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk were on the field together with Purdy:
• Deebo 25.5%
• CMC 21.6%
• Aiyuk 16.1%
• Kittle 11.5%
Since 2018, 8 QB-Pass Catcher duos have averaged over 3.0 yards per route run during a season. (Minimum 100 Routes & 50 Targets) Only one QB has supported two players in a season at this rate: 2022 Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle
2022 completion % on throws into the end zone
• 52% - Tua Tagovailoa
• 48% - Dak Prescott
• 44% - Daniel Jones
• 43% - Jalen Hurts
[…]
• 24% - Russell Wilson
• 23% - Zach Wilson
• 15% - Kenny Pickett
• 8% - Deshaun Watson
Tua Tagovailoa on Devon Achane “Achane has been very impressive throughout the first OTAs that we've had. I think when you look at the practices that we've had, I mean, he's shown some pretty cool bursts of his speed. His hands. Understanding the plays. He's done a really good job with that.”
2022 Fantasy Finish:
• Christian Kirk was the WR11
• Zay Jones was the WR26
2023 Average Draft Position:
• Calvin Ridley is the WR16
• Christian Kirk is the WR27
John Metchie has been cleared for training camp after beating cancer.
• 96/1,142/8 as a junior at Alabama while sharing a field with Jameson Williams
• The Texans traded UP to get Metchie at 2.12 in the NFL Draft in 2022.
• Current ADP: WR79
Highest % of Team Scrimmage Yards in 2022:
• Derrick Henry: 36.1%
• Josh Jacobs: 32.9%
• Christian McCaffrey: 31.3%
• Nick Chubb: 28.5%
• Justin Jefferson: 28.3%
• Saquon Barkley: 27.7%
Antonio Gibson has finished as the RB12, RB13 and RB27 the last three years, and just got a big upgrade at OC… but still currently goes as the RB32
Only RBs that are Top 5 in rush yards after contact and rush yards over expected
• Derrick Henry
• Nick Chubb
• Khalil Herbert
The Bears also have 240 RB touches up for grabs
On Monday’s practice both Lions running backs were involved out of the backfield. Gibbs and Montgomery were both fluid and comfortable as receivers.
He’s back! The Saints have signed TE Jimmy Graham to a one year contract.
With this deal, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes now drops to 8th in the NFL in QB pay per year. Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson are all ahead.
Cooper Kupp (30), Davante Adams (30), Deandre Hopkins (31).
• Brandon Marshall - 21.1 PPG at 31
• Terrell Owens - 20.5 PPG at 34
• Randy Moss - 18.0 PPG at 32
• Larry Fitzgerald - 17.6 PPG at 32
• Andre Johnson - 17.5 PPG at 32
• Antonio Brown - 17.3 PPG at 33
Breece Hall, appears to be recovering exceptionally well after his ACLR surgery, with no setbacks and impressive athleticism metrics. Projections, based on other elite RBs would indicate he could be back in action by the start of the season and fully recovered by the 5th or 6th week, showcasing his determination and commitment to returning to peak performance.
Cold Water:
BEST fantasy seasons by RBs coming off ACL surgery (Relevant for Breece Hall and Javonte Williams), since 2012:
• RB1 - Adrian Peterson - 21.1 ppg (2012)
• RB9 - Todd Gurley - 16 ppg (2015)
• RB19 - Dalvin Cook - 13.8 ppg (2017)
• RB34 - Saquon Barkley - 12.7 ppg (2021)
• RB26 - JK Dobbins - 10.2 ppg (2022)
7 QBs have been drafted between picks 17-32 since 2010
• Johnny Manziel
• Tim Tebow
• Paxton Lynch
• Brandon Weeden
• Teddy Bridgewater
• Lamar Jackson
• Jordan Love
They have combined for a total of 4 QB1 seasons, all of which were from Lamar. (So you’re telling me there’s a chance gif)
Alexander Mattison posted one breakaway run on 74 attempts last year (1.4% rate). As a receiver, his 0.73 yards per route run ranked 84th.
Bottom-5 RBs in Explosive (15+ Yards) Run %, Min. 70 Carries
5. Leonard Fournette - 1.6%
4. David Montgomery - 1.5%
3. Alexander Mattison - 1.4%
T1. Melvin Gordon - 1.1%
T1. Samaje Perine - 1.1%
During the “RB Zoom call” the star-studded group of running backs discussed the idea of EXAGGERATING injuries when locked in a contract standoff with their teams.
Joe Burrow has been sacked 124 times in his NFL career (playing 3 years). Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 121 times in his NFL career (playing 6 years).
Kadarius Toney “tweaked his knee” as he shagged punts before practice.
Isiah Pacheco averaged less PPG than B-Rob, Dillon, Elijah Mitchell, Perine, Gibson, & Damien Harris (most of whom were backups) last year.
Of the active NFL wide receivers drafted by the New England Patriots, the current leader in career PPR points is... Braxton Berrios.
Russell Wilson had just a 21.7% TD rate inside of the 10. Ahead of only Kenny Pickett. It was the first time that Wilson had a TD% below 40% inside of the 10 since 2016. He had a career rate of 41.7% entering the season.
Diontae Johnson had 40% of the Steelers targets in the end zone last year, and he just set the NFL record for most receptions without a TD.
NFL Free Agents still available: Dalvin Cook, TY Hilton, Kenyan Drake, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry and more.
The Fun Stuff:
According to the citation, Vikings WR Jordan Addison was going 140 mph last week was due to a medical emergency with his dog. He is unlikely to earn a suspension.
Garett Wilson insane catch
Significant differences in SFB13 ADP by platform (Sleeper vs MFL)
Dalvin Cook starring in new musical Alexander Mattison
Apparently jumping through tables is a sign of intelligence now?
Justin Herbert’s new contract ⚖️ Philip Rivers’ career earnings.
Saquon’s contract looks an awful lot like the franchise tag…
That’s gotta hurt for Marcus Mariota.
Deebo Samuel “u up?”
A Cruel Summer for Travis Kelce…
I guess Twitter X allows Deandre Hopkins to commit virtual murder.