This week's analysis brought to you by Taylor Swift fans
Welcome back!
This week, your RB will be on the team that scores 70 points. Manifest it.
Let’s get to the headlines.
Analysis & Hype:
Mike Evans in 11 career match ups against Marshon Lattimore:
• 7-147-1
• 5-55-0
• 4-86-0
• 4-64-0
• 3-61-0 (ejected for fighting)
• 2-48-1
• 1-14-0 (injured after just 17 snaps)
• 1-13-0 (suspended one game for decking Lattimore)
• 1-3-1
• 1-2-1
• 0-0-0
Reminder this time last year James Robinson was the RB3 overall, CEH the RB4, and Cordarelle Patterson the RB5.
Michael Pittman is the only player in the NFL with 8+ catches in all three games this season.
Jordan Love ranks 1st in average depth of target (10.2 yards) and 3rd in deep throw rate (16.8% of attempts 20+ yards in air). On throws of 10+ air yards, Love ranks 10th-best in catchable passes (72.5%). Christian Watson's aDOT last season: 14.1 yards (21st among WR).
Jared Goff is currently the most accurate 15+ yard thrower in the league while also throwing such throws at the 13th highest percentage in the league.
Some support for Zero-RB: Kyren Williams, Zack Moss, Joshua Kelley, and Jerome Ford went mostly undrafted in 12-team leagues, but were all consensus top-20 RBs in Week 3. The only undrafted wide receiver inside the consensus top-20 WRs in Week 3 is Puka Nucua; after Puka, it’s Tutu Atwell at WR40.
RBs with 70%+ Snaps in all three games:
• Josh Jacobs
• Rachaad White
• James Conner
• Alex Mattison
RBs in on over 60% of Team Pass Plays:
• Christian McCaffrey
• Bijan Robinson
• Rachaad White
• Kyren Williams
Rachaad White in Week 3:
• 17 total touches
• 91% snaps (Career High)
• 90% of the backfield touches
In terms of total EPA, the gap between Tua Tagovailoa in 1st and Justin Herbert in 2nd is the same as the gap between 2nd and Matthew Stafford in 12th.
7 WRs play on 90%+ of Team Pass Plays:
• Justin Jefferson
• Ja'Marr Chase
• Davante Adams
• Garrett Wilson
• Deebo Samuel
• DeVonta Smith
• Jonathan Mingo
Players in the last decade to have 3+ passing TDs and 0 ints in each of the first 2 games of the season
• Jordan Love (2023)
• Patrick Mahomes (2019)
• Tom Brady (2015)
• Peyton Manning (2014)
RB Target Leaders:
• Miles Sanders: 18
• Bijan Robinson: 17
• Alexander Mattison: 15
• Jaylen Warren: 15
• Josh Jacobs: 14
Derrick Henry thru 3 weeks:
• 0.22 missed tackles forced/att
• 2.59 yards created after contact/att
• 0.61 yards created before contact/att
Tyjae Spears
• 0.53 missed tackles forced/att
• 4.2 yards created after contact/att
• 1.27 yards created before contact/att
Tyjae Spears out-snapped Derrick Henry 25 to 17 this week. He's now out-snapped Henry in two of three games this season. Henry's 2.0 PPR point total was the lowest of his career in a game where he's had at least 10 rush attempts.
Target share this season:
1. Davante Adams, 39.4%
2. Puka Nacua, 34.7%
3. Tyreek Hill, 34.5%
4. AJ Brown, 34.5%
5. Keenan Allen, 33.1%
6. Deebo Samuel, 32.6%
7. Chris Olave, 31.7%
8. Mike Evans, 31.1%
9. Garrett Wilson, 30.9%
10. Deandre Hopkins, 30.8%
Kyren Williams monday night had a 100% share of:
• Early Downs
• Goalline snaps
• Short Yardage
• Third Down Snaps
• Two minute drill snaps
Week 3’s man coverage yards per route run leaders (excluding MNF):
• Nathaniel (Tank) Dell: 7.08
• Justin Jefferson: 6.05
• Tyreek Hill: 5.03
• Brandon Aiyuk: 4.65
• CeeDee Lamb: 4.57
The fastest ball carriers in a game this season:
1. Tyreek Hill, Week 3: 22.07 MPH
2. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.93 MPH
3. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.66 MPH
4. Raheem Mostert, Week 2: 21.62 MPH
5. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.52 MPH
6. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.5 MPH
De'Von Achane's Week 3 performance was just the fourth time a running back hit 50 PPR points in a game since 2016. He is currently the RB4 in fantasy football (PPR).
Bears Opportunity Share, Week 1:
• Khalil Herbert - 41.2%
• Roschon Johnson - 35.3%
• D'Onta Foreman - 23.5%
Bears Opportunity Share, Week 2:
• Khalil Herbert - 62.5%
• Roschon Johnson - 37.5%
• D'Onta Foreman - banished
Bears Opportunity Share, Week 3:
• Khalil Herbert - 47.4%
• Roschon Johnson - 52.6%
Josh Palmer in 3 games without Mike Williams and with Keenan Allen last season:
• 8-106-2
• 5-56-0
• 7-60-0
28 total targets for a 22.6% share.
Keenan Allen had 20 targets in Week 3 and caught 18 of them. That's just the third time in NFL history where a player saw at least 20 targets and caught 90% of them. (Terrell Owens in 2000; Brandon Marshall in 2008)
Browns RBs in first game without Nick Chubb (knee). From all drives except the final garbage time drive:
• Snaps: Jerome Ford 40, Kareem Hunt 14, Pierre Strong 3
• Routes: Ford 21, Hunt 5, Strong 1
• Opportunities: Ford 13, Hunt 8, Strong 1
The Browns historic defense this season:
• Lowest success rate against in the first 3 weeks of the season since 1999
• Allowed the lowest pass success rate and rush success rate against in the league
• Their offense has given up more touchdowns (2) than the defense (1).
James Cook 2023 17-game pace: 306 touches, 1,893 total yards, & 0 touchdowns.
Most Carries without a TD yet:
• Josh Jacobs (45)
• James Cook (44)
• Bijan Robinson (39)
• Alex Mattison (38)
• Javonte Williams (36)
Skyy Moore Target Share by Week:
Week 1: 8%
Week 2: 10%
Week 3: 16%
Week 3 target share leaders at TE
• 36% - Sam LaPorta
• 27% - George Kittle
• 24% - Cole Turner, Kyle Pitts
• 23% - TJ Hockenson
• 22% - Darren Waller, Travis Kelce
• 21% - Jonnu Smith
• 20% - Evan Engram
• 19% - Jake Ferguson, Luke Musgrave, Hunter Henry
• 18% - Tyler Conklin
• 17% - Mark Andrews
Most pass attempts without an interception in a player’s first 3 career starts: CJ Stroud, 121
Tank Dell currently has more receiving yards (251) than Ja’Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel, more receptions (15) than Terry McLaurin and Calvin Ridley, more receiving TD’s (2) than Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, and more yards per reception (16.7) than Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf.
Colts Week 3 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
• Zack Moss - 33
• Trey Sermon - 7
Cold Water:
Dalton Schultz has been targeted on 13 percent of his routes and has a 0.48 yards per route run.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 87th in yards per route run.
The Bears defense over the last two seasons combined under Matt Eberflus:
• 32nd in EPA/Play
• 32nd in Dropback EPA/Play
• 32nd in pressure rate
• 32nd in pressure rate w/ four-man rush
• 32nd in sacks per game
• 32nd in yards conceded per coverage snap
Bears LBs Tremaine Edmunds + TJ Edwards in coverage: 25/27, 234 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Roschon Johnson has more PPR points than Jahmyr Gibbs through three weeks.
Ken Walker's snap rates ...
• Week 1: 65%
• Week 2: 61%
• Week 3: 49%
Zach Charbonnet's snap rates ...
• Week 1: 24%
• Week 2: 28%
• Week 3: 44%
Percentage of RB runs to gain 0 or fewer yds: 29% PIT & ARI.
Kyle Pitts is 8th in target share, 1st in air yards share, 1st in route rate, and 19th in PPR points among TEs.
Joe Burrow is now averaging 4.7 yards per attempt this season. Only 2 QBs in the last 20 seasons started each of the first 3 games of the season while averaging fewer yards per attempt.
The Bills have the lowest Blitz % in the league, but the highest Sack %. The Giants blitz the most in the NFL, but have the 2nd lowest Sack %.
Daniel Jones 3 turnover games: 5
Daniel Jones 3 passing TD games: 4
Bryce Young behind 5-man pass pro:
39/70 (56%) for 245 yards, 3.5 YPA, 2 TD, 2 INT
Bryce Young behind 6 or more in pass pro:
6/7 (85%) for 67 yards, 9.5 YPA
Curtis Samuel has more touches, yards, & fantasy points than Jahan Dotson through 3 weeks.
Breece Hall's first two carries of the season went for 109 yards and two first downs. The next 24 carries have gained 45 yards with two first downs.
The Fun Stuff:
Devon Achane informed the team that his name is pronounced ‘A-Chan’.
Poor Josh Dobbs…
How many weeks until Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp are eligible to return?
This Mike Evans catch!
Tyreek Hill says he wants a role in producing… films after the NFL
Scorigami! Eagles Buccaneers game ends in 25-11 for the first time.
Mike McDaniel had the Broncos in hell (also, unsurprisingly, 70-20 was another Scorigami).
Pete Carroll keeping the passion high at age 72.
The Kelce/Swift stuff is getting old very fast, but even we can admit this is kind of cute.
Waiver Weapons - Week Four:
As a reminder, Waiver Weapons is a new segment we’re trying out where the three of us each share a player that is on most leagues’ waiver wires who we think you could start that week, or are interesting stashes.
Week 3 Recap: Bad week for the squad, as all three of our waiver weapons failed to put up a usable score. Tyjae Spears had good usage but couldn’t produce, Kendre Miller was out snapped by Tony Jones, and Desmond Ridder had less points than Mike White who only threw two passes! No worries though, because this week we bounce back.
Chris’ Pick: Luke Musgrave, TE, GB (24% rostered on Sleeper) - Yeah, I’m going back to the well with Musgrave again; sue me. Not only was Musgrave my only pick that’s hit so far this season (sorry), but he draws a prime TE matchup against Detroit, who are currently giving up the second-most points to TEs. I’m grabbing him everywhere I can swing it and probably starting him over Kyle Pitts; if there’s ever a week for a breakout, this sure feels like it.
Camaron’s pick: Josh Downs, WR, IND (22% rostered on Sleeper) - Look, I’ve got a rule, when a rookie shows you they’re good, you believe them. Those of us in the FF Newsletter discord know that analytics were definitely in favor of Josh Downs, the only problem was that the rushing QBs don’t hit the short yardage plays that Downs thrives in. But Gardner Minshew is not a rushing QB, and he targeted Downs 12 times last game, bringing his season total to the same amount as Ceedee Lamb, Nico Collins, and George Pickens.
Will’s pick: Calvin Austin, WR, PIT (8% rostered on Sleeper) When possible, i’m gonna go for the really deep waiver picks with a bit of a dynasty slant. Sophomore WR Calvin Austin has been given 16 targets over the first 3 games of the season. The speedster could turn any week into usable fantasy points with those targets.