The Week That Felt Like a Month
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What a great week of games - with the excitement of Jacksonville’s late-game comeback over KC on Monday night, the Pats knocking the Bills off in Buffalo on SNF, and the crazy finishes in Arizona vs. Tennessee (yikes…), Miami vs. Carolina (wow!) and Denver vs. Philly (WOW!), no one could blame you for forgetting the bonafide nail-biter between the Rams and 49ers last Thursday. Hard to believe that was only a week ago, but buckle up - it’s time to do it all again.
Before you do, though - well maybe buckle up first anyway if you’re into safety - make sure to add a few minutes on your calendar for tomorrow and plan to listen to the all-new FF Newsletter Podcast (link is to last week’s episode - new ones come out each Friday)!
has taken things to the next level, putting together a deep dive on three narratives we’re watching heading into each weekend. Keep an eye out for new episodes on Fridays after the newsletter drops, and if you’re already subscribed on Substack - good news, as you should get them delivered via email. If you’re not… what’re you waiting for?If you’re looking for even more deep-dive goodness, as well as up-to-the-minute headlines and the greatest community of fantasy players out there, then join our premium subscriber’s community on Discord via Patreon for just $5 a month. Here’s a taste of what we talked about this week:
Haskins vs. Vidal (and how much it really matters long-term with the talent gap between them + Hampton)
Who we wish the Bengals would trade for at QB (fun fact: no one said Joe Flacco)
Chris’ musings on stupid rules (there should be a clock runoff if you call back-to-back timeouts, as otherwise there’s no incentive to not call one vs. taking a delay of game)
Chris’ musings on great rules (Adonai Mitchell and Emari Demercado are industry plants to justify the end-zone-fumble-touchback rule and I am HERE for it)
Personalized league trade advice and more!
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As always, let us know what stats helped you out in the comments, Reddit, or on Twitter @FFNewsletter! Onward to the news.
Analysis & Hype:
Obviously format dependent, but based on 2024 results, odds of making the fantasy playoffs:
• 5-0: 94.2%
• 4-1: 83.7%
• 3-2: 65.0%
• 2-3: 41.6%
• 1-4: 21.1%
• 0-5: 8.7%
Most receptions by TE this season:
1. Jake Ferguson: 41
2. Trey McBride: 29
New England EPA when rushing behind Will Campbell: 0.335
EPA when rushing anywhere else: -0.107, -0.403, -0.939, -0.323, -0.271
Quinshon Judkins had 70 yards called back due to penalties, including a 56-yard touchdown.
This was the first time that the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens all lost in the same week since Week 9 of the 2017 season when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were in college and Patrick Mahomes hadn’t taken a single NFL snap.
Darren Waller in 2025:
• 2.84 YPRR (1st among TEs)
• 90+ PFF Receiving Grade (1st among TEs)
• 18.3 PPG (1st among TEs)
Darren Waller has matched Trey McBride’s single season career record in touchdowns (3) in his last 50 snaps.
Players with 11,000+ yards from scrimmage and 80+ TDs through their first 100 career games:
• Adrian Peterson - 11,537 yards, 91 TDs
• LaDainian Tomlinson - 12,599 yards, 114 TDs
• Emmitt Smith - 11,526 yards, 109 TDs
• Eric Dickerson - 12,303 yards, 83 TDs
• Jim Brown - 12,523 yards, 103 TDs
• Christian McCaffrey - 11,522 yards, 84 TDs
Joe Flacco averaged 8.5 targets per game to RBs in his four games with the Browns this year.
Tetairoa McMillan is 19th (dating back to 1990) in receiving yards through an initial five career games at the WR position, sitting right between Julio Jones and Andre Johnson.
The Buccs/Seahawks game on Sunday was the first in NFL history where both QBs threw for 325+ yards and completed 80% or more of their passes.
• Baker Mayfield: 29/33 (87.9%) for 379 yds
• Sam Darnold: 28/34 (82.4%) for 341 yds
Only three running backs have gained positive yards on +90% of runs in 2025:
• 97% - TreVeyon Henderson
• 92% - Javonte Williams
• 90% - Jonathan Taylor
The Top 5 RB's in Broken Tackles
1. Ashton Jeanty - 15
2. Jonathan Taylor - 13
3. James Cook - 12
4. Omarion Hampton - 11
5. Kyren Williams - 9
Breece Hall explosive rush rate by season (12+ yards):
• 2022: 15% (2nd/52 qualified RBs)
• 2023: 6.7% (21st/35)
• 2024: 9.1% (10th/31)
• 2025: 19.7% (1st/32)
Since 2000, here are the only rookie TEs to see 12+ targets in a game within their 1st 5 career games:
• Brock Bowers
• Mason Taylor
Mason Taylor target shares by week:
• Week 1: 5%
• Week 2: 10%
• Week 3: 17%
• Week 4: 26%
• Week 5: 27%
Emeka Egbuka:
• 66% catch rate on a 14.1-yard aDOT
• 11.7 yards per target
• 20% TD rate
Emeka Egbuka is now 3rd all time in fantasy points through his first 5 NFL games. Behind Randy Moss and Puka Nacua.
Spencer Rattler is the first QB drafted by the saints to win a game since 1998. BONUS: Before Mahomes won a game in 2018, The Chiefs hadn’t had one since 1987.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads qualified RBs with 1.26 PPR points per touch. Jonathan Taylor is RB2, a distant second, with a 1.10 rate. League average is 0.87.
Before Week 5, JK Dobbins ranked:
• 1st in explosive (10+ yard) runs (11)
• 1st in explosive run % (19.3%)
• 2nd in rush YPC (5.7)
• 4th in rushing yards (323
The Cowboys had Javonte Williams run for 108 yards in the first half, and Ryan Flournoy amass 104 receiving yards before halftime as well. Going back to 1978, there has NEVER been a game in which the Cowboys have had a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver in the same half of a game. Never Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin. Never Zeke Elliott and Dez Bryant. Never Tony Dorsett and Drew Pearson.
Most receiving yards in a season in NFL history:
1) Calvin Johnson — 1,964 (in 2012)
2) Cooper Kupp — 1,947 (in 2021)
Through 5 games, Puka Nacua is on pace for 1,999.
Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. connection:
Weeks 1-3:
• 28% catch rate
• 4.6 yards per target
Weeks 4-5:
• 69% catch rate
• 9.9 yards per target
Cold Water:
Running Back Expected Fantasy PPG By Team:
1. Lions
2. 49ers
…
31. Ravens
32. Titans
Most touches this season without a 15+ yard gain:
1. Chase Brown (83)
…
2. Dylan Sampson (31)
3. Tyrone Tracy (30)
Jameson Williams’ current 17-game pace: 71 targets, 37 catches, 758 yards, 3 TDs
Joe Flacco quarterback rating under pressure according to PFF data:
• 2024: 41st/43 qualified quarterbacks
• 2025: 36th/38 qualified quarterbacks
Most targets this season without a receiving touchdown:
1. Tetairoa McMillan (43)
2. Jakobi Meyers (39)
T3. Stefon Diggs, Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley (34)
Justin Fields is 0-26 as a starter when the opponent scores 21 or more points.
Since Week 1 the Jets have not scored an offensive TD until they’ve fallen behind by two touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey had 60 rushing yards with 14:50 left in regulation. He finished with 57.
Tony Pollard has the 13th most touches in the NFL and is the PPR RB29.
Sunday was Zach Ertz’s first game without a catch since November 27, 2014.
Ja’Marr Chase has more tackles than Micah Parsons.
Most Common Players on 0-5 Yahoo Teams:
1. Nico Collins
2. Joe Burrow
3. AJ Brown
4. Bo Nix
5. Ja’Marr Chase
Waiver Weapons
Each week, Camaron and Chris will each share a player that is rostered in < 33% of Sleeper fantasy leagues who we think you could start in a given week (No kickers or defenses). Just to be extra fun, we decide on these players post-waivers so that you can pick them up last minute. Last week, Chris’ pick Michael Carter was the PPR RB9 on the week with 18.3 points after leading the Arizona RB room with 58% of the snaps; Carter looks to take on that bellcow workload moving forward, and could even push for work when Trey Benson is back. Not bad for a guy who was only rostered in 6% of leagues. Camaron’s pick Isaiah Bond was a dud with only 4.9 points, but he did have a season best in routes run and targets. Hopefully, better days are ahead.
Camaron’s Pick: Colston Loveland, TE, CHI (28.2% rostered on Sleeper) - Things have started off rough for this year’s 10th overall pick. Loveland has only played in three games this season and has only 6 targets to show for it. But there are some signs that his opportunity will arise. Looking at the top four rookie TE seasons of the last 5 years (LaPorta, Kincaid, Pitts, and Bowers), we have found an interesting trend. All four increased their average targets per game after Week 5. The NFL is difficult and rookies need time to learn the offense. Those same rookies averaged 5.8 targets per game weeks 1-4, and 7.5 from week 6 onward. We may not see Loveland breakout as a total NFL superstar this season, but we should at least be able to get a few good weeks out of him and his matchup against the Commanders looks promising as the game has the third highest implied points on the week.
Chris’ Pick: Tyquan Thornton, WR, KC (27% rostered on Sleeper) - Rashee Rice’s return is highly anticipated in Week 7. Fortunately for you (unless you drafted Rice), it’s Week 6, and the Chiefs are set to play Detroit (7th best fantasy matchup for WRs) in what should very likely be a primetime shootout (highest O/U of the week on DraftKings). Thornton has seen his snaps drop since Xavier Worthy returned from injury in Week 4, but has made the most of his time on the field, turning in a flex-worthy performance last week. He posted three of the Chiefs’ four longest plays of the game vs. Jacksonville, so look for him to stay involved downfield (at least this week - probably not a guy you’ll keep around long-term, but who knows).
Trade Target Thursday
BTJ was a PI call away from his first 20 point outing of the season, Quinshon Judkins is a set-and-forget RB, Javonte Williams is the RB3 on the season, and Ja’Marr Chase was the #2 WR last week + got his upgrade at QB. It’s been a while since I’ve had a 4 for 4 (I miss Wendy’s - big fan, as my wife is #TeamBurgerKing), but this one tastes pretty good. Hopefully you’ve been able to ride the wave!
With that said, I am incredibly sorry to let you down, but we’re in re-runs this week as I have a ton of homework to do for my online Masters at CU Boulder (#SkoBuffs). I still stand by everyone mentioned in this section over the past few weeks (though some of the “buy low” logic might no longer apply). This week’s trade target, though, is the same as it was last year when I was on vacation in Mexico - nobody. Oftentimes, there are just as many reasons not to make a trade as there are reasons to make one! Here are a few things you should keep in mind as you evaluate whether to try to dig yourself out of a hole without bargaining:
If you’re in a tight spot but not fully teetering on the brink, you can try your hand at pulling a few lottery tickets on waivers each week. Be more aggressive in cutting non-performers from your team in favor of guys with higher upside, like backups to players who are questionable with injuries or players who had strong “one-off” performances in the event that they repeat. Sometimes, you’ve just got to let those guys you’re not starting go.
Keep churning those bottom-of-the-roster spots as much as you can! If your league allows post-game drops like Yahoo! or Sleeper do by default (which I don’t understand fundamentally, but rules are rules), load up on Thursday players, then drop any you don’t want to keep (e.g., if you grabbed a backup and the corresponding starter remained healthy) in exchange for early Sunday guys. Rinse and repeat with the late window and Monday Night Football. More shots means you’re more likely to hit on one.
If you’re streaming defenses and kickers + indifferent about your options for a given week, go ahead and drop last week’s starters early to open up another spot for a higher-upside player like those mentioned above; there’s no point in rostering a D or K you won’t end up starting unless they’re a top-tier asset. Just make sure you remember to pick up one of each in time to start them - ideally, one that’s playing in a late game so you have a chance at a few “free look” players (if you’re on Yahoo!/Sleeper) per the bullet above.
It’s technically not trading for “nobody,” but a little bit of “trade judo” can be a great strategy. Let your league mates know what you’re interested in, have them come to you with offers, be reasonable and respectful with your counters, and you’ll be surprised what you can come away with. People often turn out to value some of their players a lot less or some of your players a lot more than you’d think if you were crafting an initial offer yourself.
Sometimes, you need to shake things up on your fantasy team. Trading is a great way to do that, and you’re 100% guaranteed to get the guy you want (assuming your deal goes through). Sometimes, though, the best deal is no deal. If you’re the party in a deal who can better afford to wait a week, you usually benefit from doing so as your counterparty grows ever more desperate. Just pay attention to your league’s deadline, stay active on waivers, and most importantly - don’t force yourself to finish a deal just because you started negotiating one! In the words of the great Kenny Rogers, “know when to walk away, and know when to run.”
The Fun Stuff:
Jalen Hurts threw a Hail Mary on the final play of the game. Then sprinted to the endzone like he was chasing a three pointer.
Demario Davis wants to put Cam Skattebo in time out.
This throw by Drake Maye. He one upped himself later.
Speaking of Drake Maye… someone’s probably in some hot water right about now.
Hey, it’s cold in Buffalo!
Baker Mayfield was talking trash with a Seahawks fan and then came back to check in after the game.
Mike Vrabel or Michael Scott?
A legendary call by Mike Tirico for this fan who caught a pass that Josh Allen threw away.
Would’ve loved to hear his call on this fan-made play!
Still Life with Dead Birds and a Basket of Oysters, by Germain Ribot
Puka Nacua balled so hard he got Xavier Howard to retire.
You tried, Gronk. Reading is hard. He’s no Hunter Henry.
Tank Dell is back from the dead.
Congratulations to the Titans for the wildest touchdown of Week 5.
The BS meter is off the charts at the Linc.
At least you’re managing your team better than this guy’s girlfriend.
Emari Demercado is an anagram for “a mediocre dream” - do with that information what you will.
Shoutout to everyone who knew the Stefon Diggs revenge game was inbound. The hatred runs deep.
The Vita Vea coverage celly you never thought you’d get to see.
Evan McPherson with the pinpoint precision.
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Calvin Johnson had the yards in 16 games though.