“The Steelers offense is a Ponzi scheme.”
Championship Week!
We’re here. It’s championship week, and you know what that means: Unbridled joy or immense suffering and pain. There is no in-between here. I wish you all the former.
I’ve added a Dynasty section for these end of season posts for those of you already excited about next year’s prospects.
Now let’s get to it.
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News & Notes:
To absolutely no ones surprise, Jalen Hurts was named the Eagles Week 16 starter.
WR Josh Gordon has adhered to the terms of his conditional reinstatement and is set to rejoin the Seahawks. He reported at 238 pounds with 7% body fat and is eligible to play in Week 16.
There’s hope that Antonio Gibson will be ready to play for Week 16.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a hip and an ankle injury, but X-Rays were negative. The early expectation is CEH is done for the regular season with a chance to return for the playoffs.
Insights, Analysis, Hype:
David Montgomery has been killing it lately. You have some folks getting hyped and some pumping the breaks due to strength of schedule. Either way, after the hate that’s been heaped on Montgomery, it’s been fun to watch him succeed. Here’s a great thread contextualizing David Montgomery’s performance both this and last year. — Also: David Montgomery has been the first RB with 4 straight games of 24.5+ FP this season.
Thread on /r/fantasyfootball: “Tony Pollard scored more fantasy points than Ezekiel Elliott has scored in any of his last 31 games.” — Also: Highest rate of missed tackles forced per attempt since 2019: Tony Pollard - 25% Nick Chubb - 24% — Also: Tony Pollard’s 27.3% target share yesterday was higher than Ezekiel Elliott's season high of 21.2%. — Also: Tony Pollard has a +0.4 PPR Points Over Expected compared to Ezekiel Elliott’s -3.9 — Also: Tony Pollard leads the NFL in both missed tackles forced per rush and yards after contact per carry among 73 RBs with 100+ carries over the past two seasons. — Also: Tony Pollard is on zero of my fantasy football rosters :(
Jalen Hurts’ 401 total yards in Week 15 (338 passing, 63 rushing) was more than Carson Wentz has had in a single game in his entire career. — Also: Jalen Hurts’ 4 passing TDs have come during 3rd and 22, 4th and 3, 4th and 2, 4th and 18.
Brandon Aiyuk has scored more fantasy points per game (20.8) than every WR in the league since Week 7 except for: Tyreek Hill (27.5) and Davante Adams (26.6). — Also: “Brandon Aiyuk’s last 6 games: *45 catches *568 yards *4 TDs Set the #49ers rookie reception record (57) and has 2 more games to go.” Aiyuk has had either 100 yards receiving or a TD in every game during that stretch. — And if all of that doesn’t get you excited enough, here’s Kyle Shanahan on Brandon Aiyuk: "Aiyuk has not arrived yet. He can get a lot better. A lot."
Targets per game over the last 4 weeks: 1. Brandon Aiyuk (12.7) 2. Stefon Diggs (11.8) 3. Calvin Ridley (11.3) 4. Diontae Johnson (11.3) 14. Jarvis Landry (9.5) 15. Cole Beasley (8.8)
Justin Jefferson broke Randy Moss’ record for receptions by a Vikings rookie WR.
Some eye-popping stats highlighting just how good Ryan Tannehill has been over the last 24 games he’s played since taking over in Tennessee.
Calvin Ridley in five games without Julio Jones this season: Week 3: 5-110-0 Week 5: 8-136-0 Week 12: 6-50-1 Week 14: 8-124-1 Week 15: 10-163-1
Ryan McDowell ran a dynasty value study poll thread on Twitter getting a better idea of how people are currently valuing Brandon Aiyuk and David Montgomery.
“The thing preventing Dobbins from taking over is that Gus Edwards legitimately deserves more touches, too. Guy is just making plays every time he touches it the past three weeks.”
Tee Higgins has 8 games with 8+ targets this year which is already the 3rd most all-time by a 21 year old rookie WR.
“There's only been 13 WRs all-time to have 700+ receiving yards at age 21 through 13 career games. Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins and CeeDee Lamb are 3 of them. Of the other 10 WRs, all 10 had at least 1 season as a WR1 (100%). 8 of the 10 had multiple seasons as a WR1 (80%).”
Some great statistical deep dives on Reddit: Receivers and Tight ends — Running Backs — Quarterbacks
Looking Ahead For Dynasty League Managers:
Discussion on /r/DynastyFF regarding Florida TE Kyle Pitts declaring for the draft.
2021 RB class analysis thread on /r/DynastyFF
A warning not to overlook RB prospect Trey Sermon because he was a backup.
Quick Twitter thread of 2021 WR prospect rankings.
2021 free agent list/thread.
Daniel Jeremiah: “Bama WR Devonta Smith is a blend of Marvin Harrison & Calvin Ridley.”
Cold Water:
“Were it not for his rushing yds, Russell Wilson would have been the WORST fantasy quarterback of Week 15 Sunday. Even with them, only Colt McCoy scored fewer fantasy points. The question isn't who will you play over Wilson in Week 16, it's who will you play Wilson over...”
The Fun Stuff:
Oh man, they got my guys JuJu and Chase Claypool real good this week.
The full pro-bowl list.
This no-look pass from Matthew Stafford.
Jonathan Taylor showing that vision and lateral agility folks were worried about earlier in the season.
I found this Tweet from Chris Thompson to be pretty heartwarming after his teammate James Robinson was snubbed from the Pro Bowl.
“The Steelers offense is a Ponzi scheme.”
“Ever since Russell Wilson attempted to trademark the term "Let Russ Cook", he has been doing anything but that.”
Some sweet Cam Akers highlights.
Clip of Chad Johnson telling a story about how he used to call his coaches in the middle of the night to tell them he’s open.
Two of Jalen Hurts’ big plays from the weekend.
“Jets are in the victory formation. So are the Jaguars.”
For those of you with monster teams that fizzled in the playoffs.
This dude flawlessly imitates NFL hard counts.
Getting stiff-armed by Derrick Henry looks like no fun at all.
That’s it for now. Find me on Twitter and Instagram where I follow over 1,000 analysts + beat writers and retweet/post all the good stuff.