The Semi-Finals!
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Welcome back!
A moment of silence for our brothers who started both Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall last week. Except for ya boy, because they helped him secure a playoff bye 🕶️.
Good luck to everyone still in it. One more game until the big dance!
Analysis & Hype:
Jahmyr Gibbs the NFL-leader in carries of 20+ yards:
• 10 - Gibbs (8 of those 10 drives resulted in a TD)
• 8 - Christian McCaffrey
• 7 - 5 tied
Christian McCaffrey now has 97.4 more fantasy points than the RB2 (Mostert) for the season.
Jaxon Smith Njigba’s 17-game pace since the bye week: 70 rec, 814 yards, 5 TDs.
Rashee Rice route rate by week:
• Week 11: 52%
• Week 12: 68%
• Week 13: 69%
• Week 14: 82%
• Week 15: 95%
Jaylen Warren registered career-bests in Week 15:
• 69% snap rate
• 83% route participation
Brock Bowers averaged 18.1 fantasy points per game for his college career. That is more than Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson, and Justin Jefferson.
Demarcus Robinson:
• Week 14: 10 targets, 12.1 PPR Points
• Week 15: 3 targets, 13.7 PPR Points
Tyjae Spears & Rachaad White have the same number of targets this season (55).
Rachaad White ranks 5th among RBs in catches and 2nd in receiving yards. Next up: the Jaguars defense, who allow the most catches to RBs and third-most receiving yards to RBs in the NFL.
Total EPA in Week 15:
• Jared Goff - 16.2
• Brock Purdy - 18.2
• Baker Mayfield - 25.1
Most games this season with 4+ Pass TD and 0 INT:
• Brock Purdy: 3
• 11 QBs tied: 1
Zach Ertz went down Week 7. Since then, Trey McBride has played seven games. His 17-game pace is 123-1316-5, and he leads the TE position in points per game.
Trey McBride also:
• Leads all TEs in targets per route run. (27%)
• Trails only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams in targets per routes run.
• Leads all TEs in yards per route run. (2.30)
• Would be 14th among all WRs in yards per route run.
Trey McBride recorded his fourth game of at least 8 receptions and 89 yards on Sunday. No other tight end has more than two in 2023.
Over the last two weeks Calvin Ridley has 25 targets. Only DeAndre Hopkins and teammate Zay Jones (now out with a hamstring) have more air yards.
If you remove the 1 game he was injured in (1.1 points vs CLE), Deebo Samuel is averaging 19.0 PPG this year.
James Cook has a league-high 671 rushing yards coming on man/gap rush designs, according to Fantasy Points Data. Kyren Williams (520) is the only other player with 500+. Against man/gap runs, the LA Chargers have the 3rd worst success rate and a league-high 11 rushing TDs allowed.
James Cook ranks second in the league in rushing yards, just ahead of Raheem Mostert and just under 1,000, but only has two rushing TDs to show for it.
PPR points in 10 games together since Week 5:
• Cooper Kupp: 140.8
• Puka Nacua: 137.2
David Njoku and Amari Cooper both topped 100 receiving yards. The last time the Browns had two receivers over 100 yards in the same game was 2013 when Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron did it in Week 14.
The NFL has been tracking QB starts since the 1950 season. Just one QB in that time has 1,000+ passing yards and completed over 75% of his passes in his first four starts: Jake Browning.
Sam LaPorta has more fantasy points than any rookie TE in the last 30 years. Its only Week 16.
Cold Water:
Bijan/London/Pitts: 16 combined opportunities in Week 15.
Tyler Allgeier: 18
Bijan Robinson has TWO games with LESS than 0.5 fantasy points.
Over the last two weeks, Gabe Davis has run 57 routes. He has the same number of catches and yards as our editor Will.
Trevor Lawrence vs Daniel Jones in their first 48 Career Starts:
Wins - Lawrence (20) Jones (19)
Passer Rating - Lawrence (85.5) Jones (85.4)
Pass TD/INTs- Lawrence (55/35) Jones (55/33)
Passing + Rushing Yds - Lawrence (12,204) Jones (11,992)
Yards/Att - Lawrence (6.7) Jones (6.7)
Only two QBs have been sacked on more than 10% of their dropbacks this season:
• Tommy Devito (16%)
• Daniel Jones (14%)
Derrick Henry in Week 15 had the fewest yards in NFL history from a player with at least 20 touches. 16 carries for 9 rushing yards, 4 receptions for 1 receiving yard.
Texans RB snaps Sunday:
• Devin Singletary: 58
• Dare Ogunbowale: 14
• Dameon Pierce: 4
Point Differentials:
• 7-7 Vikings - 290 PF vs 269 PA
• 10-4 Eagles - 359 PF vs 341 PA
If Travis Etienne gains 163 yards to get to 1,000 without raising his 3.7 ypc, he will be the first running back to gain 1,000 yards with a sub 3.8 ypc since Cedric Benson in 2010.
Quentin Johnston & Jonathan Mingo are both averaging less than 1.00 YPRR as rookies. The only other RD1/2 rookie WR’s who failed to top 1.00 YPRR since 2015:
• Terrace Marshall (.50 YPRR)
• N’Keal Harry (.83 YPRR)
• JJ Arcega-Whiteside (.55 YPRR)
• DJ Chark (.90 YPRR)
• James Washington (.57 YPRR)
• Curtis Samuel (.85 YPRR)
• Mike Williams (.70 YPRR)
• Zay Jones (.68 YPRR)
• John Ross (.00 YPRR)
• Laquon Treadwell (.33 YPRR)
• Nelson Agholor (.70 YPRR)
• Devin Smith (.50 YPRR)
Gabe Davis' 4 games under OC Joe Brady:
• 0-0-0
• 6-105-1
• 0-0-0
• 0-0-0
Among all Quarterbacks this Season, Justin Fields ranks:
• 24th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt
• 23rd in Yards per Attempt
• 24th in PFF Passing Grade
On Thursday night, Aidan O'Connell and Easton Stick combined to throw for more touchdowns (7) than Kenny Pickett has this season (6).
Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence both have 14 multiple touchdown games in their career. Trevor Lawrence has 48 starts. Brock Purdy has 19 starts.
D'Andre Swift has caught five total passes for a total of 12-scoreless yards in his last four games combined.
The Fun Stuff:
28% of Jalen Hurts' fantasy points this season have come from the Tush Push.
The Giants are mathematically alive for both the playoffs and the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
Drew Lock reached 18 mph on Kenneth Walker's touchdown run. Walker topped out at 16.1 mph.
Playoff odds:
Rams: 67% if they win, 7.5% if they lose.
Saints: 68% if they win, 20% if they lose.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba finger tips catch.
Christian McCaffrey predicting the Eagles play call perfectly.
Eagles vs Seahawks win probability tracker.
Drew Lock getting scared by DK Metcalf after his game winning TD pass.
Drew Lock was looking for Hurts and said “I guess he’s sick” after the game.
Another angle of the Jalen Hurts game losing interception.
LV Jack Jones awesome interception.
Scorigami LAC 21 - 63 LV.
“Don't be a d*ck”
Jim (John Krasinski) and Dwight (Rainn Wilson) are playing each other in The Office’s fantasy football playoffs this weekend.
Cardale Jones sets the record straight on his infamous hospital beatdown.
Waiver Weapons - Week Sixteen:
Chris was hot with suggesting Zamir White on the short week for the Raiders, as the waiver weapon put up 17.5 PPR points, Will’ stash target of Jordan Mason may yet still pay off as he is showing to be the clear handcuff to CMC, and Darren Waller burns Camaron’s Bellinger waiver weapon up in smoke. With the championship only a week away, it’s time to go big or go home.
Camaron’s Pick: Hunter Henry, TE, NE (26% rostered on Sleeper) - I don’t think we should be ignoring what Hunter Henry has done with Bailey Zappe so far this season. Henry has back to back weeks as the TE4 in PPR scoring and is playing 70%+ snaps each week. We mentioned frequently at the start of the season that Bill O’Brien’s offenses like to target TEs and Hunter Henry refuses to give up that TE1 title. On top of all this LateRoundQB pointed out that Henry is also running 18% more routes than early in the season. I think you can do a lot worse than praying for another touchdown from Henry in Week 16.
Chris’ Pick: Nick Mullens, QB, MIN (10% rostered on Sleeper) - things started off slow for the fourth QB to start a game for the Vikings this season, including one of the worst interceptions you’ll ever see, but Mullens found his groove in the second half and nearly led his team to victory in the process. He’ll look to build on that late-game momentum this week (he’s already been named the starter for Week 16) against the Lions, who’ll likely keep the ball moving on offense and create a favorable game script for passing volume. Don’t expect Mullens to lead all QBs this week, but with a lot of opportunities to throw the ball and plenty of talent (see: Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson) around him, he should put up a strong performance.
Will’s Pick: Jameson Williams, WR, DET (37% rostered on Sleeper) - I’ll be honest, this is 100% a “my gut is telling me the guy is going to have a big game” move. Beyond that, he’s playing a favorable matchup against the Vikings which have given up good numbers to WRs this season. Last week he also had his highest snap % and targets (7) for the year. If you’re looking for a boom or bust prayer, this might be your guy.
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