The Sam LaPorta fan club Newsletter
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Welcome back!
Week 14, where the dream seasons continue or come to a violent end. If you’re on the cusp, we got some great headlines for you in this edition. Go smash it this week!
Analysis & Hype:
Most QB1 games this season:
11 - Hurts
10 - Howell
9 - Allen
8 - Herbert
7 - Purdy, Stroud
Most yards per pass attempt in a single season since 2000 (min. 300 pass attempts)
1. 2000 Kurt Warner (9.9)
2. 2023 Brock Purdy (9.6)
3. 2016 Matt Ryan (9.3)
There are eight QBs averaging positive EPA when throwing into tight coverage (defender within a step of the receiver):
• Purdy 0.27
[ . . . . . . ]
• Hurts 0.15
• Lawrence 0.14
• Wilson and Goff 0.12
• Dak 0.09
• Allen 0.08
• Stroud 0.04
Current regular season paces:
Christian McCaffrey: 2,071 total yards, 24 TD
Deebo Samuel: 1,125 yards, 11 TD
Brandon Aiyuk: 1,348 yards, 9 TD
George Kittle: 1,044 yards, 7 TD
The point gap from RB1 (CMC) to RB2 (Mostert) is larger than the gap from Mostert to RB25 (Warren)
Sam LaPorta is currently posting the highest Target Share ever for a Rookie Tight End (21%).
Sam LaPorta just had the single greatest tight end performance in lions history: 9 targets, 9 receptions, 140 yards and 1 touchdown. He had 65.7% of the total amount of passing yards for Detroit.
Since Week 8, Taysom Hill has averaged 4.2 more fantasy points per game than Travis Kelce
Trey McBride has played six games since Zach Ertz went down. His 17-game pace is 116-1246-5.6.
Since Kyler Murray returned from injury in Week 10, Trey McBride ranks 2nd among all TEs in target share with 26.8%. In that same range, he leads all TEs with 80.75 receiving yards per game.
Panthers targets last 4 games:
Adam Thielen - 30
Jonathan Mingo - 29
DJ Moore In His Past 6 Full Games with Justin Fields
• 6-104-0 (16 PPR)
• 3-41-1 (13 PPR)
• 8-131-1 (27 PPR)
• 8-230-3 (49 PPR)
• 7-96-1 (23 PPR)
• 11-114-0 (22 PPR)
Elijah Moore with and without Joe Flacco:
• Games: 7 & 31
• Average PPR Points: 11.8 & 7.7
• Average Receptions: 4.3 & 3
• Avg Targets: 7 & 5.3
• Avg Yards: 57 & 32
In Week 13, Joe Flacco led the league with 534 air yards. Jalen Hurts was second with 347 air yards.
Dak Prescott has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL (1.4%), with just 7 TWPs in 12 games.
RB Route Participation Week 13:
90% - Christian McCaffrey
83% - Bijan Robinson
77% - Rachaad White
68% - Kyren Williams
65% - Tony Pollard
64% - De'Von Achane
Devon Achane in Week 13:
• 61% snaps
• 20 touches
• 103 yards, 2 TDs
• 25.3 pts
In games where De’Von Achane plays more than just 10% of the snaps he’s averaging a whopping 32.9 PPG.
De'Von Achane games with 10+ touches:
• RB1
• RB5
• RB4
• RB3
Matt LaFleur now is 16-0 as the Packers’ head coach in December.
Jordan Love's last 5 games:
• 66% comp rate
• 7.9 yards per attempt
• 275 yards per game
• 11 TDs
• 2 INTs
• 4 straight top-12 fantasy finishes.
Nico Collins without Tank Dell on the field in 2023:
• 130 routes (roughly four games)
• 82 PPR points
• 35% target share
• 45% air yardage share
Most yards per route run this season (PFF)
1. Tyreek Hill (4.27)
2. Brandon Aiyuk (3.01)
3. Nico Collins (2.9)
C.J. Stroud leads the NFL in completions (112) and yards (2,129) on throws past the sticks this season. Stroud has generated a league-high +120.4 passing EPA on throws past the sticks, the most by any rookie QB in a season since 2016.
Mike Evans is averaging 84 receiving yards per game. This is the most he's averaged since 2019, and the 3rd most of his career.
Touchdowns this season:
• Raheem Mostert: 16
• Patriots: 16
• Jets: 13
Significant home/road splits for Falcons passing game:
• Desmond Ridder - Home: 231 yds & 1.2 TDs/game, Road: 146 yds & 0.3 TDs/game
• Drake London - Home: 5.2 recs & 72 yds/game, Road: 3.3 recs & 35 yds/game
• Kyle Pitts - Home: 3.5 recs & 45 yds/game, Road: 3.3 recs & 38 yds/game
Since Joe Burrow entered the NFL:
• 97 Passing TD’s
• 37 INT’s
• 14,083 Passing yards
• 270.8 YPG
• Rate: 98.6
• Record: 29-22-1 (52 games)
Kirk Cousins during that span (2020-2023):
• 115 Passing TD’s
• 39 INT’s
• 15,364 Passing Yards
• 269.5 YPG
• Rate: 100.3
• Record: 32-25 (57 games)
After Rhamondre Stevenson's injury in the first quarter, Ezekiel Elliott had a 94% RB rush share and ran a route on 63% of dropbacks.
Yards after contact gets skewed by breaking a tackle at the line before busting a long run. Solution: % of rushes to gain 2+ yards after contact:
1. Kyren Williams (79%)
2. Jaylen Warren (76%)
3. Bijan Robinson (75%)
4. Derrick Henry (73%)
5. Zach Charbonnet (73%)
Cold Water:
Yesterday was the 3rd game since being drafted that Justin Herbert's receivers accumulated 6 drops in a single game. No other active QB since 2020 has more than 1 such game.
Kenny Pickett in 12 games: 6 touchdown passes
Tommy Devito in 5 games: 7 touchdown passes
The total for Thursday's Bailey Zappe at Mitch Trubisky showdown is set at 30.5 Points. This is the lowest projected total since 2006.
Breece Hall rushing over the past 7 games:
• 20.5% success rate (42nd/42 RBs with 50+ carries)
• 3.6% explosive run rate (41st)
• 31.3% of runs have failed to gain yardage (41st)
• 9.6% of runs to result in a 1D/TD (42nd)
• 0.42 yards before contact/carry (42nd)
It's Week 14 and Jets RBs have a combined *0* carries inside the five-yard line this season.
The Jets defense has more safeties in the first quarter this season than the Jets offense has touchdowns.
The Jets have 10 offensive TDs in 142 drives -- a 7% TD rate. Since 2000, that ranks 765th out of 766 teams. The 2006 Raiders finished at 6.7%.
This week's 90% route participation and nearly 30% target share for Kyle Pitts is the best we've seen all year.
Kyle Pitts had season high route participation and target shares and he still only scored 9.1 PPR points.
Jimmy Graham has more touchdowns than Kyle Pitts in the year 2023.
The Eagles finished with two successful run plays. Both were QB sneaks.
Patrick Mahomes has one top-10 FF performance in his past five games.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Tommy DeVito this season
• Win Percentage: Mahomes 0.667, DeVito 0.667
• Pass TD/Int: Mahomes 2.2, DeVito 2.3
• Passer Rating: Mahomes 95.1, DeVito 92.4
• Yards per Completion: Mahomes 10.4, DeVito 10.6
• Game-winning Drives: Mahomes 1, DeVito 1
12 RBs under four yards per carry with 100+ carries through Week 12:
Joe Mixon 3.9
Javonte Williams 3.8
Chuba Hubbard 3.8
Alvin Kamara 3.8
Austin Ekeler 3.8
Alexander Mattison 3.8
Travis Etienne 3.7
Rachaad White 3.6
Josh Jacobs 3.5
Tyler Allgeier 3.5
AJ Dillon 3.4
Dameon Pierce 3.0
Austin Ekeler's 1.3 yards per carry was his worst yards per rush attempt in his career with at least 10 rush attempts, and the 6th worst of his career. He now is averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season, a full yard below his average last season.
The Fun Stuff:
Every player to pass, rush or catch the ball on the Green Bay Packers opening drive was born in 1998 or later.
Kyler Murray (5' 10 1/8") to Rondale Moore (5' 7") is the shortest combined passing touchdown since Pard Pearce (5' 5") threw one to Dutch Sternaman (5' 8") on the 1920 Decatur Staleys.
When your ride home from the game bails, but make it extreme.
New Fall Guys character unlocked.
Jabrill Peppers with the inside scoop on the Patriots’ season.
The total EPA leaderboard for quarterbacks after 13 weeks of football.
Jalen Hurts has converted the ‘Tush Push’ 75 times on 86 rushes with 1 yard to go for his career (87.2%). Drew Brees was at 71 of 79 (89.9%).
A Saints fan named their daughter “Taesym”
Sean McVay on why he gave Kyren Williams a Touchdown instead of kneeling: “He’s on my fantasy team”
Jordan Davis: Eagles DT by day, angelic singer by night.
Will Levis forcing a fumble on his own forced fumble is Titans football at it’s finest.
Chargers just covered a 5.5-point spread by scoring 6 points.
Brenden Rice (son of Jerry Rice) will officially be an NFL WR next season. Frank Gore Jr. (son of Frank Gore) will also officially be an NFL RB next season. Jerry Rice retired from football 18 years ago. And Frank Gore retired from football just 2 years ago.
Speaking of parents, kids, and football - here’s some parents running tackle drills on their kids. A few gems for each generation, including a forced fumble, a kid who’s already padding his Missed Tackles Forced, and some taunting.
Thanos Wilson, QB1
Waiver Weapons - Week Fourteen:
Unfortunately, the waiver weapons we highlighted last week didn't pan out. Chris and Will opted for sleeper picks in preparation for the playoffs, while Camaron's choice, Jeff Wilson, wasn't needed due to the good health of Achane and Mostert. Adding to the setback, Camaron's backup option, Kendre Miller, sustained an injury in practice and couldn't play. Hoping for better luck this week, and a big thank you to everyone who participated in our poll.
Camaron’s Pick: Chase Brown, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals (11% rostered on Sleeper) - It's no secret that I'm not a fan of Joe Mixon. As stated in our draft guide, I projected Mixon to average only 13 PPR points per game. Even after his season-best performance against the Jaguars, he's only managing an average of 14.8 points. Despite his fantasy output, Mixon struggled on the ground in another game, marking his sixth with less than 3.6 yards per carry (Austin Ekeler is averaging 3.54). With the Bengals likely out of playoff contention and Mixon having only one year left on his contract, the team might turn to their fifth-round pick, Chase Brown, to handle the rushing duties. Brown has played in only two games this season due to health concerns, but in deeper formats, I'm willing to take a chance on him, especially with his impressive 6.8 yards per carry on Monday.
Chris’ Pick: Alec Pierce, WR, IND (10% rostered on Sleeper) - do you need a spot start at WR this week with plenty of upside? Well boy, do I have the guy for you. Pierce has seen six targets in back-to-back weeks coming out of Indy’s bye, and he turned the last set into a 3-100-1 receiving line - good for WR13 on the week in PPR. The Colts draw another favorable matchup for WRs in Week 14 against Cincinnati, and from the looks of how the Bengals managed to move the ball against Jacksonville last week, Minshew and the gang will need to air it out if they hope to keep up; in his role as their primary deep threat, Pierce stands to benefit, and your team could too.
Will’s Pick: Jonathan Mingo, WR, CAR (30% rostered on Sleeper) - Chris and Cam are going to hate me because I’m going to pick yet another WR who has not one, but two tough matchups coming up, so our waiver section could look bad again next week. But Mingo had a career best game last week and has quietly had a respectable rookie season. He faces an average Green Bay pass defense in week 16 and has a juicy matchup for the championship game in week 17 against the Jaguars pass defense.
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