The Richardson Rollercoaster
Don't worry, the Colts kept 3 whole WRs on the roster to help him.
Welcome back!
Our draft kit is now Live! If you want to see how those of us in the discord use all of these analytics to create individual player projections for all 32 NFL teams (223 players), check out the FF Newsletter on Patreon. We’re super grateful for all the support!
Now let’s dive in.
Analysis & Hype:
Sean Payton has had a RB finish Top 15 in ten straight seasons, and produced a Top 20 RB for Fantasy in 14 of his 15 seasons as a Head Coach.
Rashaad Penny led all RBs in yards after contact per carry in back to back seasons (4.45 in 2021 / 4.37 in 2022)
C.J. Stroud played nine drives this preseason. Nico Collins was his WR1:
• 91% route participation
• 30% target share
• 34% air yards share
Nathaniel Hackett's GB offenses in Pass Rate Over Expected in the red zone (cc: Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson)
• 2021: +6.9% (4th)
• 2020: +7.1% (7th)
• 2019: +10.4% (1st)
A quick refresher on/case for DeVonta Smith:
1. Coming off 1,196 yards
2. Hit the 95 reception mark
3. Clear #2 option in ELITE offense
4. 136 targets (13th amongst WRs)
5. 2.30 yards per route run (13th)
6. 485 after the catch (8th)
7. 78% success rate vs press (87th percentile)
8. 15.0 PPG (14th)
9. 2.23 yards per team pass attempt (11th)
10. 27% target share (14th)
Bonus: DeVonta Smith averaged 14.6 PPG with a healthy Goedert, which was still on pace for 248 total points.
In five drives this preseason with Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley saw:
• 100% route participation
• 31% target share
• 39% air yard share
Travis Etienne looking like a high-end RB1 profile in five drives with Trevor Lawrence this preseason.
• 67% snaps
• 65% rush attempts
• 63% route participation
• 67% of short-down-distance
• 67% of long-down-distance
Jahmyr Gibbs opens against a Chiefs defense that last year ranked:
• 32nd in receptions allowed to RBs
• 29th in receiving yards allowed to RBs
• 28th in RB coverage DVOA
% of snaps in empty sets this preseason:
43.8% - Deshaun Watson
<huge gap>
18.8% - Trevor Lawrence
[…]
0.0% - Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Desmond Ridder
Last three years in terms of targets, Diontae Johnson (2023 ADP: WR31) has been WR6, WR2, and WR6 overall.
Only eight WRs have posted at least 2.2 yards per route run as a rookie over the last 10 years. Pretty good company for Chris Olave & Christian Watson (who did it directly out of FCS North Dakota State):
1) Martavis Bryant 2.76
2) Odell Beckham 2.75
3) AJ Brown 2.67
4) Justin Jefferson 2.66
5) Ja'Marr Chase 2.51
6) Chris Olave 2.42
7) Tyreek Hill 2.28
8) Christian Watson 2.26
Christian Watson was extremely outstanding in all elements of football efficiency in 2022...
• Led ALL NFL WRs in fantasy points per target (2.52)
• Led the 2022 rookie WRs in yards per route run (2.40)
• He had a 98th percentile speed score at 6’4 208 lbs.
• He was 12th amongst all WRs in average depth of target.
David Njoku ran a route on all 16 of Deshaun Watson's dropbacks this preseason
Only 8 WRs Age 22 or younger have hit 1100+ rec yards and 140+ targets in a season; Amon-Ra St Brown and Garrett Wilson just joined that list in 2022.
George Kittle’s point per game finishes since 2018:
• 2018: 16.0 (3rd)
• 2019: 15.9 (1st)
• 2020: 15.6 (3rd)
• 2021: 14.1 (4th)
• 2022: 13.4 (2nd)
He averaged 18.5 while Brock Purdy was starting in 2022.
Leaders in 2022 Missed Tackles per Touch
1. David Montgomery (.31)
2. Nick Chubb (.31)
3. Rhamondre Stevenson (.30)
4. Breece Hall (.30)
5. Khalil Herbert (.29)
Breece Hall:
• 6.88 YFS/touch (RB1)
• 0.30 MTF/touch (RB4),
• 3.69 YACO/touch (RB1)
• 2.18 YPRR (RB2)
• 10.1% explosive play rate (RB3)
Dalvin Cook:
• 4.84 YFS/touch (RB27)
• 0.22 MTF/touch (RB18)
• 2.99 YACO/touch (RB20)
• 0.86 YPRR (RB40)
• 4.6% explosive play rate (RB27)
The Dallas Cowboys are the first team to lead the league in takeaways for consecutive seasons in almost 50 years
Antonio Gibson & D’Andre Swift both have 150+ targets & 575+ fantasy points through their first 3 NFL seasons. Since the year 2000, 27 other RB’s hit those marks in their first 3 seasons; all 27 have at least one RB1 PPG finish.
Top goal-line attempt conversion rates in 2022 (Min 10 GL att):
• Derrick Henry - 67%
• Austin Ekeler - 55%
• Miles Sanders - 50%
• Ezekiel Elliott - 47%
• Saquon Barkley - 47%
Yet another detailed thread in support of drafting James Conner.
Broncos currently have 4 WRs on the roster:
Courtland Sutton
Marvin Mims
Brandon Johnson
And the injured Jerry Jeudy.
Justyn Ross had the 2nd most yards from scrimmage as a true freshman on a Clemson team with Travis Etienne, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, and 3rd round draft pick Amari Rodgers. He has made the very climbable Chiefs WR Depth Chart.
Sam LaPorta led Iowa in receptions in each of the past three seasons.
Chris Godwin is the only player who caught 100+ passes last year with an ADP outside of RD2.
2023 Running Back TDs:
• Nick Chubb: 13
• Derrick Henry: 13
• Christian McCaffrey: 13
• Josh Jacobs: 12
• Ezekiel Elliott: 12
• Tony Pollard: 12
• Saquon Barkley: 10
Quarterback Prospects Drafted Top Five to average a 25%+ Rushing Yard Share:
• Cam Newton
• Kyler Murray
• Robert Griffin III
• Vince Young
• Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson had a 9.2% pressure to sack rate which was 11th best in the country and the best in his draft class last year.
Anthony Richardson’s target distribution in the preseason finale (including plays negated by penalty):
• Michael Pittman - 5
• Alec Pierce - 4
• Kylen Granson - 3
• Deon Jackson - 3
• Josh Downs - 2
• Andrew Ogletree - 2
Derek Carr turned Jared Cook into a Top-5 TE in 2018. Darren Waller has been a Top-10 TE the past 4 years with Carr. Carr's new TE is Juwan Johnson.
When asked if Ty Chandler is the locked-in RB2 and has a chance to take touches away from Alexander Mattison, a Vikings beat reporter told Josh Norris, “you have it exactly right”.
Brandin Cooks gets it done. Five 1000 yard season in the last seven years.
Brandin Cooks is the WR52 in dynasty and has a receiving yard prop of 775.5.
George Pickens is WR19 in dynasty and has a receiving yard prop of 750.5
New England Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has referred to rookie WR Demario Douglas is “the most advanced young wideout (he’s) ever coached”.
Tua Tagovailoa showing increased awareness of his momentum when falling.
Josh Allen played one drive with the starters in Week 3 of the preseason. Dalton Kincaid was in a route on 71% of dropbacks despite the return of Dawson Knox. Small sample, but 70%-plus is enough in a pass-first offense like Buffalo.
TE Dalton Kincaid ran a route on 13 of Allen's 19 dropbacks (68%) over the last two preseason games.
Tank Bigsby: Pre-Season 5.7 YPC w 2.83 Yards after Contact. At Auburn: 6th in YAC/att (4.16), 11th in PFF rush grade, and 78.3% short yardage conversion.
Baker Mayfield this preseason: 14/15, 105 yards, 2 TDs | 0 INTs, and a 135.4 passer rating.
Malik Willis preseason stats: 41/62 passing, 485 Total Yards (130 Rushing Yards), 4 Total TDs, and 4 INTs.
19 Year Old QBs have put up a 35+ PPG Season:
• Patrick Mahomes
• Lamar Jackson
• Deshaun Watson
• Johnny Manziel
• CJ Stroud
Aidan O’Connell final preseason numbers: 41/58 (71%), 462 YDS, 3 TDs, 0 INT, leading 6 TD drives.
Quick Tik Tok Analysis of Aidan O’Connell’s strengths and weaknesses and if he has the tools/traits to be an NFL starter one day.
Cold Water:
Lowest goal-line attempt conversion rates in 2022 (Min 10 GL att):
• Najee Harris 27%
• Leonard Fournette 27%
• Travis Etienne 23%
• Kenneth Walker 20%
• Rhamondre Stevenson 17%
Friendly reminder that James Cook hasn’t had 15+ carries in a game or 115+ carries in a season ONCE since High School, he only had 21 receptions as a rookie, & Devin Singletary handled OVER 90% of the RB opportunities inside the 5 last year.
Re: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and the impending drop-off from Brady to Baker:
• Only five teams have ever thrown the ball 700 or more times in a season. Two of them are the Buccaneers from the previous two seasons.
• Tampa Bay also ran the most plays on offense last season. ~11 more per game than the slowest team.
On average 48% of WR’s avoid injury. But only 28.5% of RB’s avoid injury. Remember this when selecting your depth bench pieces.
Patriots official 53 man roster cuts: Bailey Zappe, Malik Cunningham, Kevin Harris, and Pierre Strong.
Complete list of cut NFL Players.
Anthony Richardson’s first NFL preseason is officially in the books.
• 13/29 (45%)
• 145 passing yards
• 45 rushing yards
• 1 INT
• 44.9 average passer rating
ADP vs fantasy finishes of NFL RBs/WRs/TEs coming off of injury in the previous season.
Just one year ago, Michael Pittman was listed as the WR6 in Dynasty. Now he's listed as the WR30
CJ Stroud’s first NFL preseason is officially in the books.
• 11/20 (55%)
• 89 passing yards
• 1 passing TD
• 1 INT
• 63.1 average passer rating
The Fun Stuff:
Never give up on your dreams.
Tua with a real heads-up play.
Our condolences to the seven of you affected by this.
What a year 2017 was for dynasty…
Some more perspective on the Trey Lance debacle (spoiler alert: it makes the 49ers look even worse)
Jim Irsay is playing 9D chess out here… he has to be, right?
Seems like Chris Jones is kind of a big deal.
Aidan O’Connell: Certified QB1
Aaron Rodgers “Show some respect bro. I don’t even know who you are.”
Anthony Richardson mocking fans already.
Evan Hull will earn himself a top role in this offense.
Trey Lance's week 1 score projection is -.03 in Sleeper
Jimmy Graham just turned it back to 2013
Boltman paying his respects.
CJ Stroud putting the ball right in the bucket
Player Price Check:
This week in the Fantasy Football Newsletter Discord, there was an interesting discussion around a dynasty trade that occurred in one of our members' leagues, where Derrick Henry was traded straight up for Tank Bigsby. While we can all agree that this is selling the king at a significant bargain price, it shows how the excitement of a player’s preseason performance can really make them stand out going into the season.
Last year, Travis Etienne was expected to be the do-it-all running back for the Jaguars, but let’s be honest, he couldn't do it all. The workhorse receiving role that he was given was clearly not a good fit, as evidenced by his conversion of 23 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (10th most) into just 4 touchdowns (tied for 26th in touchdowns from that area). Etienne also managed only a <8% target share in the offense and averaged merely ~2 catches per game in 2022. Recognizing that this approach wasn't viable for them in 2023, the Jaguars decided to draft a big-bodied pass-catching running back this year: Tank Bigsby.
Tank Bigsby has already shown an incredible ability to dominate on the ground and will earn himself an important role on the team quickly. According to our draft kit projections, Tank Bigsby is expected to command 30% of the team’s rush attempts and 50% of the running back targets in 2023. If Bigsby can improve the team’s red zone conversion rate on the ground, he will be an absolute steal in fantasy this year. Currently ranked as our RB25, the future looks bright for him in Jacksonville.
Great stuff!
Some great stuff but your two Etienne related blurbs seem to completely contradict each other.