The Internet Hates Both Colts QBs
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Good Thursday morning, dear readers! Well, or afternoon… or Friday… but we like to think you open your Mail app like a kid on Christmas when we drop a new edition. Whether you’ve been drafting all summer or are trying to catch up because your first one is this weekend, we’ve got a ton of great stuff for you this week. Before you scroll down to get your weekly fill of player stats, camp reports, fun stuff, and Daniel Jones slander (there’s a lot this week in case the title didn’t tip our hand), take a second to work through our 2025 fantasy football safety checklist:
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Are your draft dates on your calendar? Nothing is worse than talking shit to your squad all summer just to open ESPN on Wednesday night and see a terrible team that was autodrafted on Tuesday.
Do you have a Kyle Pitts emergency contact? Everybody needs a friend on speed dial to talk them off the ledge when he’s staring at you after falling two rounds past his ADP. “This year is the year!” you say? Let someone else find out.
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Best of luck to you all as the first big wave of drafts is upon us - let us know what stands out to you in the comments, Reddit, or on Twitter @FFNewsletter!
Analysis & Hype:
Highest target shares on 3rd down in 2024:
1. Wan'Dale Robinson (35.5%)
2. Chris Godwin (35.1%)
3. A.J. Brown (33.0%)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (31.8%)
5. George Pickens (31.7%)
Best Fantasy Points per Route Run (FP/RR) Seasons since 2021:
1. Tyreek Hill, 2023 (0.85)
2. Puka Nacua, 2024 (0.75)
3. Deebo Samuel, 2021 (0.75)
4. Cooper Kupp, 2021 (0.74)
5. Marvin Mims, 2024 (0.72)
Jonathan Taylor last year:
• With Richardson: 17.1 fantasy PPG
• Without Richardson: 18.9 fantasy PPG
Josh Downs last year:
• With Richardson: WR46 in PPR PPG
• With Flacco: WR17
Michael Pittman
• With Richardson: WR63
• With Flacco: WR27
Mostly unnoticed because Nix ran for four touchdowns to Williams’ zero, but Caleb Williams quietly had more rushing yards than Bo Nix last year.
Jahmyr Gibbs is just the second Running Back to post 20+ PPG on a sub 40% Carry Share in their second season. The first went on to stack five 18+ PPG seasons.
Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 5.9 YPC on rushes between the tackles last season - over half a yard more than any other player with at least 75 such carries.
Jets RBs this preseason:
Breece Hall:
• 3.5 Yards per Carry
• 3.4 Yards after contact per attempt
• 0.3 Missed tackles forced per attempt
Braelon Allen:
• 4.5 Yards per carry
• 2.1 Yards after contact per attempt
• 0.0 Missed tackles forced per attempt
Bhayshul Tuten has gained positive yardage on 18 of 19 preseason touches with no negative plays. Tuten has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 6 of 19 touches. No negative plays.
Kendre Miller this preseason: 5 missed tackles forced on 12 carries.
Kendre Miller last season: 4th among 91 qualifying RBs in missed tackles forced per attempt last year.
Isaac Guerendo averaged 17.9 FPG in games above a 50% snap share. If that were his full-season average, it would have led all rookie RBs over the past six seasons.
George Kittle in 2024:
• 11.8 yards per target (career best)
• 0.53 TDs/Game (2nd best)
• 6.27 Tgts/Game (4th worst in his career)
There were ONLY 2 RB’s who had 150+ carries & gained more than 70% of their yardage AFTER-contact last season:
• Kenneth Walker
• Tank Bigsby
Colts starters have played 35 snaps this preseason. Tyler Warren has been on the field for 34 of them. And posted 4-65-0 on six targets.
Bucky Irving hit 50%+ snaps just 7 times in 2024. He finished as a Top-12 RB in 6-of-7 & never fell below 16 FPs.
Rhamondre Stevenson tied for most RB fumbles lost last year. TreVeyon Henderson had 0 fumbles on 667 collegiate touches.
Dolphins RBs this preseason:
• Jaylen Wright: 13 touches, 19 yds, 1.54 YAC/att, 0.08 MTF/att
• Ollie Gordon: 21 touches, 131 yds, 4.06 YAC/att, 0.22 MTF/att
Ollie Gordon is in elite company among past winners of the Doak Walker award.
Los Angeles Chargers preseason snap rate with Justin Herbert on the field:
• 100% - Ladd McConkey
• 100% - Omarion Hampton
• 63% - Keenan Allen
• 63% - KeAndre Lambert-Smith
• 63% - Tyler Conklin
Cedric Tillman flashed mid-season last year, and stands to benefit from the recent Flacco news. From Weeks 7-12 last year:
• was a top-12 WR in fantasy PPG
• 19.7% target share
• 66.4 yards per game
Brock Bowers (8) and George Pickens (7) led the league in inside-the-10 targets without a touchdown.
Elic Ayomanor Preseason Week 2 with Cam Ward: 92% snaps, 88% routes, 57% targets, 100% yardage.
RB’s to post 1,500+ total yards & 15+ TD’s as a true freshman & get drafted RD1-2 in the NFL Draft:
• Adrian Peterson
• LeSean McCoy
• Todd Gurley
• Nick Chubb
• TreVeyon Henderson
• Quinshon Judkins
Quinshon Judkins is the only RB in NCAA history to post 1,500+ rushing yards & 15+ rushing TD's as a true freshman & get drafted RD1-2… other than Adrian Peterson.
Ricky Pearsall after 1 preseason drive: 4 targets, 3 receptions, & 42 receiving yards.
Chase Brown Averages from Week 9 on last season:
• 24.4 Opportunities (RB1)
• 116.3 Total Yards (RB3)
• 20.9 Fantasy Points (RB3)
The Seahawks rushed for 119 yards in the first quarter. (That Klint Kubiak guy is a pretty good OC)
Seahawks RBs in that game:
• Zach Charbonnet: 5 carries, 45 yards, 1 TD
• George Holani: 5 carries, 49 yards, 1 TD
• Damien Martinez: 11 carries, 50 yards
David Njoku was Top-15 in targets per-game (8.82) amongst ALL pass-catchers last season – averaging more targets than Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, & Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
• JSN with Shane Waldron: 93 targets, 63 receptions, 628 yards
• JSN without Shane Waldron: 137 targets, 100 receptions, 1,130 yards
• Rome Odunze with Shane Waldron: 101 targets, 54 receptions, 734 yards
• Rome Odunze without Shane Waldron: **pending**
How Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette compared in 2024:
• Target share/game: Legette (18.7% vs. 14.8%)
• YPRR: Coker (1.67 vs. 1.15)
• Man YPRR: Coker (2.24 vs. 1.23)
• Zone YPRR: Coker (1.09 vs. 0.94)
• Espn receiver score: Coker (55 vs. 29)
PPR points per game through four pro seasons (all time):
1. Odell Beckham Jr: 20.96
2. Justin Jefferson: 19.59
3. Ja’Marr Chase: 19.56
…
8. CeeDee Lamb: 17.5
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown: 17.3
Bijan Robinson averaged an absurd 26.5 ppg in weeks 16-18 last year with Michael Penix as the starting QB.
Jaylen Warren since entering the NFL:
• RB6 — yards per rush
• RB4 — success rate
• RB1 — avoided tackle rate
• RB7 — yards per route run
• RB3 — first downs per route run
Jalen McMillan heads to injured reserve. He’ll miss at minimum four games, per league rules with IR, but a source said he could be out until after the Week 9 bye. Big news for the other Bucs WRs.
Cold Water:
Braelon Allen in 2024:
• 3.63 Yards per Carry
• 1.1% Explosive Rate
• 2.3 Yards after contact per attempt
Zach Charbonnet has not seen more than 10 touches in a single game Kenneth Walker has started (& finished) once in his entire 33-game career.
Kenneth Walker’s injury locations:
• 2021 foot/ankle
• 2022 foot/ankle
• 2024 foot/ankle
• 2025 foot/ankle
EPA/Play since 2022:
• Daniel Jones: -0.002
• Anthony Richardson: -0.04
Daniel Jones record vs teams .500 or higher
• 2019: 0-7
• 2020: 0-6
• 2021: 3-4
• 2022: 2-6
• 2023: 0-4
• 2024: 1-6
Of 55 QBs who had 175+ attempts last year, Anthony Richardson ranks dead last in accuracy, completion rate, and 50/55 in TD:INT ratio. He doesn’t fare much better against exclusively early-career QBs, ranking dead last in accuracy (and very low elsewhere) over the last 25 years there as well.
Games with 0 offensive TDs since 2015:
• 30 - NYJ
• …
• ………
• 19 - NYG
• 18 - CHI, CAR
49ers RB room behind a healthy CMC:
• Guerendo: Shoulder Injury
• Jordan James: Finger Surgery
• Patrick Taylor: Dislocated Shoulder
• Ameer Abdullah: Ribs, IR
• Corey Kiner: High Ankle Sprain
Mini Draft Guide - Camaron - Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks are simple. Draft an early mobile QB or get lucky late. That's pretty much it. Early round QBs that have some mobility (you know who these guys are) are consistently able to return value on their ADP's Expected PPG. The guys that aren't don't. But let's start by setting our expectations.
Unlike with the other positions we've talked about so far, your goal at QB is not to beat ADP. A QB being drafted at pick 120 might have an expected PPG of 16.8 and if he ends up beating that ADP by 2.0 PPG you might think that's a successful pick, but at the end of the day he's still only averaging 18.8 PPG which is only a mid tier QB2. We're aiming for 20.0+ PPG and if they're being drafted in the first four rounds then they better get to 21+ PPG where the truly high end QB1s finish.
Expected PPG
A Quarterback’s Expected PPG is calculated based on a polynomial line of best fit with an equation of = 0.0002*(ADP)^2 - 0.0848*(ADP) + 24.156. This R-squared value isn't great at only 0.3747, but we expected that with how much variance there is at QB in the NFL.
Early Round
Early round QBs (ADP < 48) are reliable but even more so if they're mobile. Over the last five seasons (we added 2020 this week so we'd have more data) there have been 26 quarterbacks drafted in the first four rounds. Of the 26, 18 were successfully able to reach the 21+ PPG threshold that we are aiming for. Of those seven that failed to hit 21+ PPG, 6 were immobile pocket passer type QBs with the only exception being 2023 Justin Fields. Immobile pocket passer QBs like Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes have been able to reach 21+ PPG from this area of the draft before, but due to their poor hit rate we prefer to avoid them. We do not expect all four of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels to score 21+ PPG, but we have no reason to doubt each of them individually.
Middle Rounds
Over the last five years, twenty-one QBs have been picked between picks 49 and 84. Ten of these QBs have finished above 20 PPG and eleven have finished below it. If I'm being honest, finding a trend among the hits/misses is difficult here. Experience, defensive PPG allowed, and the ADP of the QB's top receiving option have all proven to be almost completely uncorrelated. Of the five mobile QBs in this range, two have been massive hits, and three have been busts. My only insider knowledge here is that understand that if you are picking a QB in this range, you are basically flipping a coin and hoping that it comes up heads.
Late Rounds
Late round QBs are any QB picked after the first seven rounds of your average 12 team league (ADP > 84). The average starting roster size in most leagues is seven picks, and your average opponents will likely fill out all seven of their starting spots before thinking about their bench. We know this is wrong, so we're hoping to exploit that. Lastly there are the late round quarterbacks. These players almost never work out as consistent fantasy options. Of the 56 Quarterbacks drafted from pick 85-200 since 2020 only 8 have been able to reach 20+ PPG. And only 12 have been able to reach 19.2 PPG (low end QB1). There are a couple trends that we can see among the hits, however it is important to understand that if you choose to take a shot at the late round QB strategy, you are likely going to be streaming your QB off of waivers. The number one trend we have found among late-round QBs that hit 20+ PPG is that their OCs are awesome (well-duh). Of the eight QBs to hit 20+ PPG, 6 of their OCs were hired as an NFL Head Coach within the next few seasons. The only exceptions to this are Kliff Kingsbury with Jayden Daniels (was interviewed for the Saints and Bears openings) and Luke Getsy with Justin Fields (was interviewed for the Broncos HC job in 2022). It's easier said than done to find the next Kevin O'Connell or Liam Cohen, but a few guys like Seahawks Klint Kubiak, Cardinals Drew Petzing, and Vikings JJ McCarthy could be candidates for the Giants job next year.
This is all to say that QB ADP has gotten so much better that it used to be. If you're playing in an 8 team league where 15+ starting QBs are available on waivers then feel free to wait until late and get the fantasy gems that always appear on the waiver wire. But if you're in a competitive 12/14 team league where only Tyler Shough is going to be available on waivers week 1, then you don't want to be stuck holding out hope that Tua or Stafford finally reach their pocket passer ceiling.
Our favorites:
Jayden Daniels - Early + mobile = safe high upside.
Jalen Hurts - Early + mobile = safe high upside.
Kyler Murray - Drew Petzing has already had HC interviews.
Drake Maye - Josh McDaniels is a former offensive HC (Kingsbury did it last year).
Sam Darnold - Klint Kubiak is one of the best OC’s in the NFL.
JJ McCarthy - Wes Phillips will be a top three candidate if McCarthy hits his ceiling like all Vikings QBs seem to be doing under O’Connell.
Michael Penix Jr. - Zac Robinson could be the next former McVay disciple to become a HC.
The Fun Stuff:
Tyson Bagent is the first Bears quarterback to receive a contract extension since ... Jay Cutler in January 2014.
Bengals will face Joe Flacco in the opener. This sentence was also true in 2008.
Need a way to figure out your draft order? These guys seem to have a pretty great one.
The trail of dead bodies from Omarion Hampton's second run against the Rams.
Rashawn Slater beat Justin Herbert's ass so bad at chess last year that Herbert went and learned for a year just to be able to avenge his loss and is now known as the "chess guy" on the team.
…or maybe there’s another reason he got into chess?
Jason Kelce with the take of the century on the Browns QB situation.
Stop what you’re doing and watch the best highlight of the preseason so far.
What would you do if you were this commish?
We share a lot of stats like this, but don’t be like this guy.
I guess Ashton Jeanty can do it against NFL players too.
Bryce Young has been working on his timing.
Browns RB John Kelly, Jr. did someone’s grandma dirty here.
Big men on both teams cracking open Miller Lites on the field after practice like they did in the 70s.
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