The 'Cold Water' Edition

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Welcome back!

The news/headlines were sparse this week, but we still got a couple gems for you. Oddly enough, though, the cold water section was longer than usual. Also, a quick note that I’ll be out of commission for next week, but you can expect the next newsletter the week after.

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Now let’s get to it!

News & Notes:

N’Keal Harry has requested to be traded.

The Dallas Cowboys will be featured in this year’s “Hard Knocks”. PSA to make your dynasty trades for Cowboys players before the episodes air.

BeerSheets are coming!

Analysis & Hype:

Really, really liked this Twitter thread on finding/chasing this year’s DK Metcalf.

Laviska Shenault earned a target on 19.8% of his routes in 2020. That’s a higher % than Chark even in 2019 (19.2%) Marvin Jones has exceeded 19% only once in his career.

"From the voluntary workouts and the team’s mandatory minicamp, Mecole Hardman, a third-year player, appears to be in position to have a breakout season, as he is expected to have the role previously held by Sammy Watkins."

If you’re looking for a deep sleeper dart throw, Zach Pascal could be worth a look:
-6’2” 219 lbs
-70+ Tgts, 600+ RecYds, & 5 TDs each of the past 2 seasons
-On a team without a target hog WR
-IND used 2nd round tender on him

Great Tee Higgins thread on getting him with the Chase discount.

TBH, I’m not really sure how much you can do with this information, but it’s pretty interesting nonetheless: These charts measured how well QBs performed after taking a hit.

Second-year WRs Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are reportedly slated to be the starting WRs for the Raiders.

Jared Goff is reportedly teaching Amon-Ra St. Brown things Cooper Kupp did with Rams.

Broncos beat believe Javonte Williams will lead the Broncos in rushing attempts this season.

I usually don’t include a lot of these types of quotes, but last year I was convinced Zeke suddenly looked like he was wearing lead boots out there, so here it is — RB coach: Ezekiel Elliott looking “quicker” and “more elusive.”

Eagles beat believes Dallas Goedert will be "featured" in head coach Nick Sirianni's offense this season.

"Despite sporadic use, [JK] Dobbins still finished with 925 total yards and nine touchdowns and he averaged more than 6 yards per touch. The Ravens believe he’s capable of more and would like to get him more involved in the passing game."

"Jaylen Waddle is a freak. This young man has incredible game speed. Waddle can also stop on a dime with that speed. People undersold him as a route runner coming out of Alabama... Soon, Waddle will be in the same type of discussion as Tyreek Hill."

Really interesting post on /r/fantasyfootball: “I looked at historical sleepers and busts to see how many to expect, common causes, and what value they bring. TLDR in 2020 hitting on a sleeper increased your odds of a championship by 2/3rds, a bust drops it by 1/3”

Another thread on /r/fantasyfootball: Who are some players being slept on due to over-hyped rookie or free agent teammates?

Cold Water:

Chase Edmonds has *1* career carry inside the 5-yard line. James Conner inside the five-yard line since entering the NFL (PFF): PFF rushing grade: 77.3 (1st among 38 qualified RBs) TD conversion rate: 55% (4th) 1st down or TD rate: 62% (1st).

Laviska Shenault had more carries (18) than receptions on targets traveling 7 or more yards downfield (17) last year.

Jerry Jeudy did not have a red zone catch last year. 0/7 on end zone targets. DeSean Hamilton had more red zone targets last season and Courtland Sutton was not even available.

In regards to D’Andre Swift: The Lions aren’t currently favored in any of their 17 games. Since 2000, only eight RBs have finished as an RB1 playing for a team with 0-3 wins. None finished higher than RB7.

N’Keal Harry has been open on just 25.5% of his targets against Single Coverage. 99th out of 100 qualifiers.

“Here are the combined totals of the Chiefs WR2-4 last year (Watkins, Hardman, Robinson):
176 targets
123 receptions
1447 yards
9 TD
AKA 59/41/482/3 average per player.
The only person gone is Watkins. Tell me again why we should even care who the Chiefs WR2 even is?”

[Kadarius] Toney needs refinement as a route runner before he can be trusted... I expect the Giants to bring Toney along slowly. He should be the starting punt returner from Day 1…”

“Evaluators Question If Cowboys RB [Ezekiel Elliot] 'More of a 2nd-Tier Guy”

The Fun Stuff:

Jerry Jeudy running some unbelievable routes.

Tom Brady is a warlock.

Quick reminder of how ridiculously good the 2014 WR class was.

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