The Caleb Williams Burn Book Edition

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter! Sorry we missed your morning “just got to work” pooping on company time window, East Coast fans, but hopefully we find you in time for the “running out the clock before lunch” session.

If you’re looking for an escape from the issues in the world today and would rather binge all the incredible fantasy football analysis out there, then you have come to the right place. And if once a week isn’t enough for you, then check out our premium Discord for round-the-clock news and specific advice for your fantasy leagues from almost 200 other members.

One last note: the FF Newsletter does not yet have a Blue Sky account, but Camaron has started sharing posts on there that will end up in the weekly newsletter if you want a sneak peek each week!

Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Running Backs with 10+ PPG as a Rusher and 8+ PPG as a Receiver this Season:
• Alvin Kamara
• Kenneth Walker III

De’Von Achane is now 2nd among all RBs in receptions this season.

Lamar Jackson has the most fantasy points from strictly passing production this season.

Since becoming the starting QB, Drake Maye ranks 1st in QB rush yards, 5th in big time throws and has the most turnover-worthy-plays.

Drake Maye is averaging 10.8 yards per scramble. He has 10 scrambles of 12+ yards in five starts. That’s more than Daniels and Nix all year.

De'Von Achane's 70% snap rate in Week 10 was the highest of his career in a game that Raheem Mostert played.

Puka Nacua Target per route run rate:
• 28% - 2023
• 32% - 2024

1st Round Rookie Wide Receivers to post 16+ PPG:
• Justin Jefferson
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Mike Evans
• Odell Beckham Jr
• Malik Nabers

1st Read Rate Leaders for Week 10:
1. Puka Nacua - 47.8%
2. Davante Adams - 43.5%
3. Will Dissly - 41.7%

Will Dissly had the fourth highest target share of Week 10 at 33.3%.

Khalil Shakir yards per route run in career.
• 2022 season: 1.14
• 2023 season: 1.84
• 2024 season: 2.40

Combined carries and targets this season:
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 128
• David Montgomery: 128

Alvin Kamara has been targeted on 15 of 57 passes over the last 2 weeks. A 26% target share.

CeeDee Lamb managed 8.4 fantasy points on a team that threw for 66 yards.

George Pickens in three games with Russell Wilson at QB = 3.21 yards per route run.

George Pickens stat lines in three games with Russ (after averaging 60.5 yards per game and scoring zero TDs with Fields):
• 5-111-1
• 4-74-0
• 5-91-0

Russell Wilson is currently just two touchdowns away from having the most touchdowns in a season for a Steelers QB since Ben Roethlisberger retired. He has played only three games.

3 RBs have 800+ rush yards this season:
• Derrick Henry
• Saquon Barkley
• Chuba Hubbard

It’s been 351 days since the last time Lamar Jackson WASN’T a QB1 on the week.

Lamar Jackson, 2024:
• Pass EPA: 112.8 (#1)
• Passing yds: 2,669 (#2)
• Pass yds/attempt: 9.3 (#1)
• Passer rating: 123.2 (#1)
• TD-Int rate: 24-2 (#1)
• Rush EPA: -3.1 (51st, among QBs)

Bengals RB touches in two games with Zack Moss (neck) out:
1. Chase Brown: 54
2. Everyone else: 0

There have been 8 different 50+ point PPR games since Ja'Marr Chase entered the NFL. Chase has 3 of them.
1. Ja'Marr Chase WK17 2021 (55.6)
2. Ja'Marr Chase WK10 2024 (55.4)
3. Joe Mixon WK9 2022 (55.1)
4. Jonathan Taylor Wk11 2021 (53.4)
5. Ja'Marr Chase WK5 2023 (52.2)
6. Gabe Davis DIV2021 (52.1)
7. Amari Cooper WK16 2023 (51.5)
8. De'Von Achane WK3 2023 (51.3)

Rashod Bateman
• Weeks 1-8: 13.9% target share, 15.8 aDOT, 13.9% first-read share
• Weeks 9-10: 23.1% target share, 10.5 aDOT, 23.3% first-read share

Ja'Tavion Sanders ran a route on 89% of Carolina's drop backs.

In the five games that Tee Higgins has missed, Mike Gesicki has seen 4, 9, 8, 6, and 9 targets--an average of 7.2 per game--and has 312 total yards and two touchdowns.

Five easiest fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17) DST schedules in terms of fantasy points given up by offenses this season:
• Jaguars (NYJ, LV, TEN)
• Bengals (TEN, CLE, DEN)
• Colts (DEN, TEN, NYG)
• Packers (SEA, NO, MIN)
• Cardinals (NE, CAR, LAR)

Trey McBride is the TE3 in PPG and doesn't have a receiving TD on the season.

Audric Estime received 14 of 17 Broncos RB carries in Week 10.

T.J. Hockenson saw just one first-read target in his first game back. In Week 10, he tied Justin Jefferson with a team-high 22% first-read target share.

Prior to Harris leaving with an injury in the 4th quarter of Week 10, Pittsburgh’s backfield looked like:
• Snap Rate: 48% Harris, 42% Warren
• Rush Attempts: 14 Harris, 7 Warren
• Routes Run: 10 Warren, 7 Harris

Receivers who have a higher yard per route run rate than Jauan Jennings in 2024: A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson. That’s it.

In his first game back, Jauan Jennings led the 49ers in routes run, target, receptions, air yards and receiving yards. He ran a route on 40 of 41 drop backs and finished with a 32% target share.

Jake Bates of the Lions is the first kicker in NFL history to have a 55+ yard game-tying FG and a 50+ yard game-winning FG in the 4th quarter of the same game.

Cincinnati Bengals rookie WR Jermaine Burton ran 32 routes in Week 10. He had only run 32 routes in total through the initial nine weeks.

Mark Andrews registered a 94% route participation rate in Week 10. His previous high in 2024 was 78%.

Games with 50+ PPR fantasy points since 2021:
• Ja'Marr Chase: 3
• Rest of the NFL combined: 4

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Cold Water:

The Dolphins are one of three teams with a wide receiver target share below 50% this season. The other two are the Chiefs and Saints.

• Jaylen Waddle this season: 44 targets, 31 receptions, 367 yards, 1 TD
• Jonnu Smith this season: 44 targets, 33 receptions, 347 yards, 1 TD

The Bears haven't thrown a touchdown pass in America since October 6th.

ESPN Pass Block Win Rate for the lines for the four rookie QBs:
• DEN: 1st
• WAS: 3rd
• CHI: 14th
• NE: 32nd

Caleb Williams Total Offensive Yards: 2,021
Bears Punter Total Punt Yards: 2,153

Kyle Pitts has played around 50% of snaps over the last three games for Atlanta.

Sam Darnold and Mac Jones have played each other two times. In those games, the QBs have combined to throw for 663 yards, with 1 TD, 9 INT, 2 lost fumbles, and 7 sacks.

Dalton Kincaid:
• 36 receiving yards per game
• 8.1 fantasy points per game (TE21)
• Highest scoring week: 13.1 points (67th highest amongst TEs in 2024)

Rashee Rice is still the Chiefs leading WR in yards.

The Texans averaged 0.5 yards before contact per attempt Sunday Night and only broke two tackles on the ground the entire game.

Alvin Kamara let 12.6 PPR points fall through his hands.

Xavier Worthy has now fallen below 1.00 YPRR on the season and sits at 0.89.

Saquon Barkley has been tackled at the 1 or 2 yard line 10 different times this season, the most in the league. He has touched the ball 3 times after those plays for 1 TD.

Two completed passes for Aaron Rodgers on Sunday that traveled over 7 yards downfield.

Kansas City is allowing 20 fewer yards/game than next best team in RB scrimmage yards allowed.

Jordan Addison has a 0.167 TPRR and has just 32 TGTs in seven games. He's the WR39 in PPR/gm (11.0) and has scored ≤ 10.0 points in 5-of-7 games.

Catchable throw rates (of 38 qualifying QBs):
38. Anthony Richardson - 61%
37. Caleb Williams - 67%
36. Bryce Young - 68%

Will Levis now has more passing TDs than Caleb Williams over the last four weeks.

The Jets defense has allowed the highest EPA/play of any team in the league since they fired Robert Saleh.

Ja’Marr Chase has scored more fantasy points in two games against the Ravens (96.7) than the following players have through Week 9:
• Mike Evans (95.5)
• Tyreek Hill (88.2)
• A.J. Brown (85.4)
• Deebo Samuel (83.2)
• Davante Adams (82.4)

Ja’Marr Chase’s performance as a receiver on Thursday night vs. the Ravens would have been Daniel Jones’ best game (at QB) since 2022.

44 different tight ends have scored a receiving touchdown this year. Trey McBride is not one of them.

Waiver Weapons - Week Eleven:

Just realized our last 4 Waiver Weapons titles have said “Week 7”, nice editing Cam!

Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Another big week for the Tight End Waiver Weapons, Camaron’s selection has back to back weeks as a touchdown scorer and could be an important piece of your team moving forward. Chris’ selection seems to need more time than just one day to learn the new offense. On to Week 11!

Camaron’s Pick: Kayshon Boutte, WR, NE (4% rostered on Sleeper) - Two weeks of great picks has filled me with dumb confidence, so this week I’m picking a DEEP sleeper. Boutte is averaging a 19% target share over the last three games on the Patriots and is running more routes than anyone else on the offense. He’s played against the three worst possible matchups in a row for receivers and is now up against the Rams for Drake Mayes best matchup since week 7. I am personally starting Boutte in my home league.

Chris’ Pick: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, NO (30% rostered on Sleeper) - In six years playing with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and a little bit of Josh Allen, MVS had one game with two touchdowns. Last week, he put up two touchdowns and caught a separate 67-yard bomb from Derek Carr to emerge as the WR2 on the week. Sure, he probably won’t be a top-five receiver every week, but now that waivers have cleared you can grab him without blowing any FAAB and there are worse players to have on your roster/in your flex spot. With Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both on IR, there is room in the Saints offense for MVS to continue to connect with Carr, and they’ve already proven that they can produce together.

Trade Target Thursday:

If you’re in a Yahoo! league, your trade deadline is likely this Saturday, which makes now as good a time as any (and a better time than most) to get some deals done. I’ve had my eye on Nick Chubb, who has struggled since returning, but as a buyer, that’s to your benefit; that said, his woes can be attributed not only to getting back into the swing of things, but also to a tough slate - Baltimore, Cincinnati and the Chargers are all top-10 against the run.

I’m not saying Chubb will lead your team to the promised land on his own, but if you are looking for a guy who is a lead back on his NFL team and thus in line for strong volume, you can’t find a better value out there:

• Chubb is averaging 14 carries per game since returning, with the lowest volume of those three coming in his first game back. His 16 carries in Week 8 and 15 carries in Week 9 put him in the top-20 each of those weeks.

• Despite the tough sledding he’s faced so far, his schedule thins out a bit over the next few games; NO and DEN are both bottom-third teams against RBs for fantasy, and while Pittsburgh (who he faces twice in the next four weeks) ranks 10th best on the season, their last two games have offered hope to the tune of 18.8 points for Austin Ekeler and 145 yards on the ground for Tyrone Tracy.

Chubb is a fine addition to your RB room and likely worth starting rest-of-season on most rosters as you make your playoff push. You can probably get him for a steep discount on the heels of this string of poor recent performances, too; just don’t come off as too keen or the jig will be up. Good luck getting one last deal in before the deadline (or perhaps more!), Yahoo players, and to everyone else, know that we’re still here with you to keep pushing for a few more weeks.

The Fun Stuff:

Cam Bynum doing the Raygun "dance" after the INT.

S Jevon Holland in on the Dolphins Sack Celebration.

Calais Campbell has been teammates with Kurt Warner (born 1971) and Jaylen Wright (born 2003).

AI-generated post-game interviews from Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson after TNF were hilarious.

Luke Kuechly broke the Panthers Keep Pounding drum on Sunday.

Tua leading with his helmet after the INT.

“Our defense has to get a couple of takeaways.” - Dan Campbell

Caleb Williams got sacked 9 times by a team that had 16 on the season so far.

The Dallas Special.

Lions nation collectively giving their flight attendant a hard time for interrupting the final play (a clutch game-winning FG by Jake Bates) of SNF.

Saints interim HC Darren Rizzi said he clogged the toilet in the head coach’s locker room when he got to the stadium on Sunday.

Trey McBride third Hurdle of the Season.

"I'm not gonna go through the details of the play 'cause you guys wouldn't figure it out." - Doug Pederson

Xavier Legette found some German food he likes.

George Pickens continues to deliver the greatest highlights.

Mascots vs Kids had the GREATEST football play ever.

Jim Harbaugh cannot get enough Justin Herbert in his life.

Apparently Jordan Addison has Elon Musk in his contacts, despite not owning a Tesla. Another great clip of Tell Us with Metellus.

The Broncos QB room try to guess “things only girls should know the answer to.”

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