Sean McVay High School highlights.
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Welcome back!
This time last week you had no idea we’d be dropping Dontayvion Wicks stats on you, but here we are. We got a good list of analysis for you this week.
Let’s go.
Analysis & Hype:
Mark Andrews has missed all or most of four games over the last two seasons. Isaiah Likely in those games:
• 0-0-0 (Thursday night)
• 1-4-0
• 8-103-0
• 1-24-1
Trey McBride played 100% of the snaps (61/61), ran 100% of the routes (38/38), & tied for the team lead in targets (7) in WK11.
Rookie Wide Receivers to post 16+ PPG:
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Odell Beckham Jr
• Justin Jefferson
• Mike Evans
• Michael Thomas
• Tank Dell
Packers wide receivers this season:
• Romeo Doubs: 1.37 yards per route run
• Christian Watson: 1.28 yards per route run
• Dontayvion Wicks: 2.03 yards per route run
• Jayden Reed: 1.93 yards per route run
Justin Watson Ivy League Career Rankings:
• No. 1 in 100-Yard Games (19)
• No. 1 in Consecutive Games with a Receiving TD (10)
• No. 1 in Consecutive Games with a Reception (40)
• No. 2 in Receiving Yards
• No. 3 in Receptions
• No. 3 in Receiving TDs
Mark Andrews only ran four routes in Week 11. BAL Week 11 first-read target data:
• 39% — Odell Beckham Jr.
• 23% — Zay Flowers
• 15% — Rashod Bateman
C.J. Stroud is on pace to throw for 5,035 yards this season.
Calvin Ridley in 3 games with Zay Jones this season:
• 8 catches, 101 yards, 1 TD, 24.1 FP
• 7 catches, 122 yards, 20.6 FP
• 7 catches, 102 yards, 2 TD, 31.1 FP
In 7 games without Jones, Ridley has under 15 fantasy points, 1 total TD and just 1 game over 40 receiving yards.
Mike Evans has 88 career receiving touchdowns, tied for 15th all time.
Most career WR1 games (2022/23 rookie classes)
6- Chris Olave
5- G Wilson, Nacua
4- Pickens, Dotson, Watson
3- Dell, London
2- Flowers, Reed, Doubs
1- Downs, Addison, Burks, W Robinson, Shakir, M Wilson
The Jets have allowed just 2 WR TDs this season.
• Stefon Diggs in Week 1
• Khalil Shakir in Week 11
Russell Wilson has the best red zone passer rating in the NFL (118.5) AND the best PFF red zone grade in the NFL (91.6).
QBs with more TD passes than Russell Wilson through Week 11:
• Josh Allen
• Tua Tagovailoa
• <end of list>
Jameson Williams played a career high in snaps last week.
Brock Purdy season ranks
• Pass Rating: 115.1 (1st)
• Completion Rate: 70.2% (1st)
• TD/Att: 6.5% (1st)
• Yards/Att: 9.7 (1st)
Brock Purdy now has four career games with 3+ TD passes and a passer rating of 140.0 or higher, the most of any quarterback in NFL history in his first two seasons.
Sam LaPorta targets
• in games one of Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery has missed / left early: 6, 11, 4, 11, 7, 10
• in games both have played in full: 5, 5, 5, 5
Notable Giants QB's Pass TD in first 2 career starts
• Tommy DeVito - 5 (franchise record)
• Daniel Jones - 3
• Danny Kanell - 3
• Phil Simms - 2
• Eli Manning - 1
Last four weeks with Dawson Knox sidelined:
• Stefon Diggs: 22-217-1 on 32 targets
• Dalton Kincaid: 26-243-2 on 32 targets
Charbonnet's box score doesn't necessarily tell the full story this week; he lost 7 on a pitch play inside the 5-yard line that made his YPC numbers look at lot worse than they would have been without that egregious play call (3.1 vs 3.9).
Jaylen Warren has produced 368 total yards over the past three games.
Brandon Aiyuk is average 3.43 yards per route run in 2023. Here are some WRs who have averaged over 3.00 yards per route run in one of the past 10 seasons:
• 3.21 — Tyreek Hill (2022)
• 3.14 — Julio Jones (2016)
• 3.12 — Cooper Kupp (2021)
• 3.08 — Julio Jones (2017)
• 3.04 — Julio Jones (2015)
(Before Week 11,) Michael Pittman has more targets than Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Only Stefon Diggs and Ja’Marr Chase have more targets on the season.
Cold Water:
21% of Patrick Mahomes’ incompletions this season have been drops.
Fewest second half points scored in the NFL over last 4 weeks:
• Chiefs - 0
• Jets - 9
• Patriots - 16
• Colts - 17
• Rams - 21
• Raiders - 23
• Panthers - 29
The last time the Chiefs scored a 2nd half point was October 22.
Career games with 2+ TD passes.
• Kenny Pickett: 1
• Tommy DeVito: 1
315 QBs have 500 pass attempts since the merger. Only one has thrown a touchdown on fewer than 2% of his attempts: Kenny Pickett (1.9%)
Kenny Pickett passing TDs: 6.
Dallas Cowboys Def/Special Team TDs: Also 6.
DaRon Bland (Cowboys CB) has the same number of touchdowns on receptions this season as Kyle Pitts - the 4th overall pick in 2021 - has in his career.
With four pick-sixes, DaRon Bland has caught more touchdowns this season than any player on the Browns, Colts, Falcons, Jets, Rams, Saints and Steelers (before SNF/MNF).
Marquise Brown with Joshua Dobbs: 11.25 PPG
Marquise Brown with Kyler Murray: 2.5 PPG
Jordan Love passer rating when targeting:
• Jayden Reed (116.9)
• Dontayvion Wicks (107.6)
• Romeo Doubs (97.2)
…
• Christian Watson (45.5)
Gabe Davis in week 11:
• 100% route participation
• 0 targets
Allen Lazard has 20 catches and 1 TD in 10 games with the Jets. On a 4-year, 44 million dollar contract.
UConn legend Tim Boyle is now an NFL starting quarterback. College stats:
• 2013 - 5 Games, 59/133, 621 Yards, 0 TDs, 8 INTs.
• 2014 - 9 Games, 43/82, 335 Yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs.
• 2015 - 5 Games, 31/60, 281 Yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs.
Evan Engram has seen 74 targets this season. That's 2nd-most among all tight ends, and 23rd-most among all NFL players. Engram somehow has zero targets inside the 10-yard line.
Lions WR routes run in Donovan Peoples-Jones' first game yesterday. On 38 Jared Goff drop backs:
• Amon-Ra St. Brown 37
• Josh Reynolds 27
• Jameson Williams 25
• Kalif Raymond 12
• DPJ 2
Daniel Jones threw 160 passes this season:
• 909 yards 2 TD 6 INT
Tyrod Taylor & Tommy DeVito have thrown 167 passes this season.
• 1,083 yards 8 TD 3 INT
Daniel Jones ran the ball 40 times this season
• 206 yards 1 TD
Taylor & DeVito have run the ball 38 times this season
• 175 yards & 1 TD
The Jets went 0-for-11 on third down against the Bills. Their rate for the season is now an almost unbelievable 22.9%, by far the worst in the NFL & on pace to be worst in NFL history. The Giants (30.9%) are second worst.
Touchdown Leaderboard:
1. Christian McCaffrey: 14
2. Raheem Mostert: 13
3. Gus Edwards: 10
T4. Tyreek Hill: 9
T4. New York Jets offense: 9
Evan Engram has an NFL-high 71 targets without a TD this season. Nobody else is even at 50.
Adam Thielen has more catches than Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins combined.
Alex Erickson, a 31-year-old veteran WR who hadn't caught a pass since Week 12 of 2021, ran 90% of routes for the Chargers in Week 11. He finished with 1 reception for 12 yards on 1 target.
The lowest rate of runs to result in a 1st down or TD (min. 50 carries):
• Dameon Pierce 11.0%
• Alexander Mattison 14.2%
• Austin Ekeler 14.7%
• Aaron Jones 15.2%
• Breece Hall 15.4%
• Jerome Ford 15.4%
• Josh Jacobs 15.5%
• Devin Singletary 15.8%
• Rachaad White 17.0%
• Javonte Williams 17.2%
The Fun Stuff:
Justin Tucker's dad, having some fun on Thursday Night.
Fuck it, Sean McVay High School highlights. (Can I say fuck?)
I knew Josh Dobbs looked familiar.
Jake Browning is performance art.
How many CDs and Lambs does it take to make a CeeDee Lamb?
Steelers’ quest for the AFC North title.
DaRon Bland just got his FOURTH pick-6 this season. DPOY Candidate.
There were three sets of brothers on the field for the Bears-Lions game.
Kayvon Thibodeaux proposal sack celebration.
CJ Stroud’s pregame routine.
Tommy Devito TD celebration.
Jalen Carter tried to intercept a spike.
Block Khalil Mack? Jayden Reed can do that too.
DK Metcalf has been learning sign language to talk shit better.
Jets fan story time… “very realistic scenario.”
Stephen A. Smith knows about more than just football.
The New Jersey Department of Analytics have confirmed that Zach Wilson is a “Taylor Ham eating bastard” and is indeed not Italian.
Texas A&M fielded a team full of walk-ons, and they walked right off.
Waiver Weapons - Week Twelve:
Week 11 had some ups and downs with the waiver weapons. Michael Wilson ended up being declared out an hour and half before kickoff. Those of you in the Newsletter Discord were notified as soon as it was announced, and were recommended you start Rondale Moore (who put up a great WR25 finish) instead. Rico Dowdle unfortunately didn’t get the game script we predicted, but Jayden Reed had back to back great games and finished as the WR11; he is now the WR35 in PPR leagues.
Camaron’s Pick: Gardner Minshew, QB, IND (18% rostered on Sleeper) - It has been a minute since I picked a QB, and so far this season it’s gone well for me. With the NFL having an unusually high number of injuries to QBs this season, many Joe Burrow owners will be looking for a starter this week. This week the Colts are playing against the Buccaneers who have only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns on the season and 24 passing touchdowns. The Colts are also due for some regression, as their current passing/rushing touchdown ratio is 47% where the NFL average is closer to 60%.
Chris’ Pick: Jameson Williams, WR, DET (37% rostered on Sleeper) - I’ll acknowledge straightaway that 37% is a decently high roster rate for this section; I’ve generally tried to stay in the 20-30% range. However… when an opportunity like this comes up, I feel like I’d be doing the 2/3 of you who can grab him (more on ESPN or Yahoo where he is only 15%/22% rostered, respectively) a disservice. Williams has seen his snap share increase over the past three games from 40% to 52% and then again to 65%; as noted above, his snap count in Week 11 was a career high, and he finished as WR26 in PPR on the back of it. Drops were a bit of an issue for him earlier in the season, but seem to have subsided as he’s gotten back into the swing of things; if the positive trend in his utilization continues, he might be a strong producer for your team down the stretch + into the playoffs.
Will’s Pick: Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF (25% rostered on Sleeper) - This is a pick for deeper leagues. The sophomore WR has seen a steep rise in snap sahre over the past four weeks, and was WR9 last week with 20.5 points. I wouldn’t recommend starting him unless you’re in a pinch, but in deeper leagues, he might be worth a stash to see if the increase in snaps and targets continue to rise.
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