Ready to Fall for Mike Williams Again

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Welcome back!

If you’re drafting soon, we put together a full set of Redraft, Rookie, and Dynasty rankings on our Patreon page. I hunted down Coop to build these rankings because he’s a mad scientist and the way he breaks down positional opportunity to build his rankings is something else. He’s always thinking about weird stuff I don’t understand like which guy is playing the split end, flanker, who’s out on 2 WR sets, while I’m saying “Coop, just tell me who to draft in the 5th.”

Also, a quick shoutout to the folks on the Discord. Been getting some good links shared in there lately which have been making it to the newsletter, so we all have them to thank for some of the links this week.

Analysis & Hype:

Mike Williams is expected to play the "X" receiver spot in new OC Joe Lombardi's offense. It's the Michael Thomas spot in the offense Lombardi, the former QBs coach of the Saints, is bringing over from New Orleans. Daniel Popper of The Athletic believes "that should mean a lot of targets" for Williams.’

Evan Silva on why he gave Mike Williams a big bump in his rankings. (Video)

Listen, I was going to put this in the “Fun Stuff” section, but I’d be lying if I said this doesn’t get me hyped: T.J. Hockenson apparently won the Tight End University championship belt. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

This meme was surprisingly informative regarding Ryan Tannehill as a value in redraft.

"[Raheem] Mostert is the crown jewel of the group. If he’s healthy in 2021, he’ll almost certainly be the 49ers’ leading runner. And considering how much the 49ers run the ball, a healthy Mostert likely would be among the league leaders at his position."

Beat sees Damien Harris as the Patriots' No. 1 running back "and it's pretty decisive."

"[Zack] Moss was the more impressive RB down the stretch and looked comfortable in his reads and physicality after his toe injury. He has underrated receiving skills, he’s their best runner between the tackles, showed a punishing rushing style... and is the Bills’ preferred GL back.”

On Justin Fields: “At least a quarter of the league believe he was the best QB available. Better than the guy who went No. 1.”

Bengals beat believers Joe Mixon could play 80% of the snaps, which is something only five running backs have been able to do in the last four years.

A friendly reminder that Justin Herbert is going to be playing behind an upgraded offensive line after breaking rookie records last year.

Since the start of 2018, a total of 70 RBs have gotten at least 150 carries. Among this group, J.K. Dobbins ranks...
* 2nd in EPA per carry
* 2nd in yards per carry
* 3rd in 1st downs per carry
* 4th in success rate

"Through minicamp, it’s clear that [Mecole] Hardman has made sizable improvements, whether it’s his route running, his consistency when catching the ball or his overall demeanor on the practice fields."

D'Andre Swift barely played the 1st month of his rookie year, missed 3 games, and finished with 57 targets. Joe Mixon's career high in targets? 55”

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown played 11 games together last year (including playoffs):
Evans
* 48/786/7
* 77 targets; 19.1% share
* 15.3 fantasy points per game
Godwin
* 51/683/6
* 78 targets; 19.3% TS
* 14.1 FPG
Brown
* 53/542/6
* 74 targets; 18.3% TS
* 13.0 FPG

“Sam Darnold was atrocious last year, but he could be a good thing for D.J. Moore. Darnold has historically targeted the intermediate (10-19) area 3 to 5% more than Bridgewater. Moore out targeted Anderson 42 to 29 on intermediate throws in 2020 and boasted a 13.7 ADOT vs. 9.7.”

Interesting thread on /r/fantasyfootball: “Mo Alie-Cox will be a Top 5 TE this year”

I thought this was an interesting model: Win Rate Added. Creator doesn’t claim it tells the full story, but it’s interesting to digest.

(With Chart) “Narrative: Russell Wilson doesn't use his tight ends Reality: Russ has been middle of the pack or better in tight end usage and will target the position heavily with a good player there. This is absolutely a Gerald Everett tweet.”

Brandon Aiyuk puts himself in some pretty good company. “Aiyuk in the 4 games everyone’s worried about w/ Kittle + Deebo: -11.9 ppr ppg, 47.5 ypg R1 rookies ‘09-‘19 w/ 40-55 ypg and > 10 ppr ppg:” (Chart)

Been a lot of buzz that Antonio Gibson has made a big leap from year 1 to year 2.

“Most drops since 2019 (including playoffs, PFF)
D.K. Metcalf 20
Michael Gallup 20
Diontae Johnson 18
Tyreek Hill 18
Stefon Diggs 17
Mike Evans 16
If you don't hold drops against DK, Gallup, Hill, Diggs and Evans in fantasy football land (you shouldn't), don't do so for Johnson”

This chart shows QB accuracy by removing pressure, play action, RPOs, and motion. Only in-pocket throws from a clean pocket per.

For those of you who buy in on the shower narrative: “Robby Anderson is playing in Carolina for his college coach Matt Rhule and is the only player on the team to have played with new quarterback Sam Darnold. The offensive pass game coordinator/WR coach Frisman Jackson was also with him at Temple.”

Article: RB3s with RB1 Potential

A look at some guys to cash out on in dynasty leagues.

"Some expect Davis to step into John Brown’s role from last season, but all of the Bills’ actions in the offseason were not of a team confident that Davis was ready to step into an enormous role...As it stands now in redraft, I’d target [Emanuel] Sanders ahead of Davis."

Twitter thread: “Name 3 players with league-winning upside who are underrated by ADP”

“Both Darnell Mooney and Stefon Diggs were drafted in the 5th round and have a very similar breakout age and college dominator. Mooney has superior speed, college YPR and college target share. I’m not saying Mooney is Diggs but I’m in for the ride with this guy in dynasty.”

/r/fantasyfootball thread: Sell me on a player from the Rounds 6 to 8 range.

Cold Water:

Chris Herndon “struggled to pick up the playbook” at Jets minicamp and lost first-team reps to Tyler Kroft & Ryan Griffin.

Najee Harris was already stepping into a bad offensive line situation. But recently, the Steelers officially released David DeCastro due to injury. This could get ugly.

No team targeted their running backs at a higher rate than the Patriots last year, and Damien Harris finished with 7 targets in 10 games.

The Fun Stuff:

Wide Receivers when they get a first down.

Find someone that looks at you the way George Kittle looks at Cole Kmet.

Travis Kelce is a national treasure.

Just in case you didn’t realize you wanted to see every 10+ yard run by Patriots RB Damien Harris during the 2020 season.

This conversation between running back David Montgomery and head coach Matt Nagy.

JJ What.

Big Ben already in mid-season form.

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