Ravens Fans, Look Away

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

Countless months of planning, staring at your roster, and dreaming about what could be. And all it takes is one week for those dreams to come crashing down. Congrats to everyone who locked in a Week 1 W. For the rest, now we claw our way back.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Tight ends who ran more than 30 routes in Week 1:
• Colby Parkinson 42
• Mark Andrews 38
• Theo Johnson 37
• Isaiah Likely 35
• Trey McBride 34
• Greg Dulcich 33
• Brock Bowers 31

The only TEs with a +25% Target Share and a +25% Air Yards Share in Week 1:
• Isaiah Likely
• Trey McBride
• Brock Bowers

Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were on the field together for 21 plays in the first half. Last season the most they were on the field together for an entire game was 16. The most in 2022 was 27 plays

Brian Thomas Jr. was the only rookie wide receiver to post 10+ PPR points and 2.0+ Yards per Team Pass Attempt in Week 1.

Brian Thomas Jr. had the highest EPA per route of any rookie WR in Week 1 since 2013 (the first year EPA data was available).

Among 43 RBs with > 5 rushes, Bucky Irving ranked:
• #1 in explosive rate (56%)
• #2 in YPC (6.9)

Jeff Wilson in Week one:
• Led the Dolphins in yards per carry
• Averaged 3.6 yards after contact (6th best among all RBs with 5+ carries in week 1)
• Second highest rate of missed tackles forced per carry

The Dolphins had a 100% pressure rate in the 4th quarter of week one.

Week 1 snap rates:
• 100% - Andrei Iosivas
• 96% - Kyle Pitts
• 95% - Jonathan Taylor
• 95% - Tucker Kraft
• 94% - Elijah Moore

Tucker Kraft out-snapped Luke Musgrave 64-17, ran 30 routes to Musgrave’s 8, & out-produced him 2/37 to 0/0.

Highest % of Snaps Run from a WR Spot, Week 1 (min 50% route part.):
• Pat Freiermuth - 84%
• Hayden Hurst - 83%
• Travis Kelce - 80%
• Mark Andrews - 78%
• Kyle Pitts - 76%

Route Participation for Rams WRs:
• 92% Demarcus Robinson
• 65% Tyler Johnson
• Under 10% - Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington

Rhamondre Stevenson had 139 rushing yards after contact. He had 120 total rushing yards.

Target shares among rookie WRs:
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 9.6%
• Malik Nabers: 18.4%
• Rome Odunze: 13.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr.: 21.1%
• Xavier Worthy: 11.1%
• Xavier Legette: 24.1% (led team)
• Keon Coleman: 21.7% (led team)
• Ladd McConkey: 28% (led team)
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.3%
• Adonai Mitchell: 26.3%

Adonai Mitchell was three better throws away from having a much better NFL debut. Here’s a video.

Xavier Worthy is the first player in NFL history with a 20+ yard rush TD and a 20+ yard receiving TD in his NFL debut.

WRs with a rush TD of 20+ yds & a rec TD of 30+ yds in a game in the last 20 seasons
• KC Xavier Worthy 2024 vs BAL
• KC Tyreek Hill 2020 at MIA
• CLE Odell Beckham Jr. 2020 at DAL
• PHI DeSean Jackson 2010 vs ATL
• PHI DeSean Jackson 2009 at WAS

Most yards per carry in 2023-24 seasons (min. 12 rush attempts):
1. Jayden Reed (12.7)
2. Keaton Mitchell (8.4)

Josh Jacobs had 2 rushes for 10+ yards on 16 attempts last night (12.5%). He had 9 rushes of 10+ yards on 233 attempts last season (3.9%).

Players to have 270+ pass yards and 120+ rush yards in a game in NFL history
• Lamar Jackson in Week 1, 2024
• Lamar Jackson in 2019 Divisional Round
• Lamar Jackson in Week 2, 2019

Kellen Moore used motion at a 66% rate, the Eagles’ highest mark since 2020 and well above their 35% rate from 2023. Against the Packers in Week 1:
• Jalen Hurts with motion: 15-of-21, 212 yards, 10.1 YPA, 2 TDs
• Jalen Hurts without motion: 5-of-13, 66 yards, 5.1 YPA, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Raiders Week 1 RB Usage
• Alexander Mattison: 59% snaps, 5 carries, 22 routes, 6 targets (62 yds, TD)
• Zamir White: 39% snaps, 13 carries, 9 routes, 2 targets (46 yds)

De'Von Achane had 101 yards after the catch vs. Jacksonville this past Sunday

After only having had five career games with a target share above 10% coming into SNF, Jameson Williams in the first game of his third NFL season:
• 32% target share
• 68% air yardage share
• 5-121-1 receiving

Red zone opportunity (rush + target) leaders at RB so far:
9 — Saquon Barkley
[…]
5 — James Conner, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne
4 — Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara
3 — De’Von Achane, James Cook, Rhamondre Stevenson, Justice Hill, Devin Singletary

RBs with the most snaps in the slot or out wide in Week 1 (PFF)
14 — De'Von Achane
[…]
8 — Bijan Robinson, D'Andre Swift, Austin Ekeler

Caleb Williams' 55.7 passer rating is the 11th-worst debut among all QBs picked first overall since 1970. The list of performances worse than his includes: John Elway (0.0), Terry Bradshaw (19.3), Matthew Stafford (27.4), Troy Aikman (40.2) and Eli Manning (45.1).

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Cold Water:

NFL tight ends combined for just 1,099 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns in Week 1 this season. Those are the lowest single-week totals over the past five years of action.

Deshaun Watson future dead cap hits:
• 2024: $200.7M
• 2025: $172.8M
• 2026: $99.8M

The bottom eight teams in pre-snap motion rate all lost in Week 1.

Daniel Jones has thrown three pick-sixes and only two TD's since signing his 4-year, $160M deal.

Tonight marked the first game in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s NFL career with:
• Snap rate above 75%
• And less than 10% of Detroit’s receiving yards

Week 1 NFL passing touchdowns:
• 2019 : 61
• 2020: 52
• 2021: 61
• 2022: 51
• 2023: 37
• 2024: 35

Jaleel McLaughlin out-touched Javonte Williams 15 to 9 on Sunday.

Bo Nix averaged 3.3 yards per attempt on 42 passes today. That is tied for the 6th-lowest YPA in any game with at least 40 pass attempts since the NFL merger.

Bo Nix on throws over 10 air yards: 2-for-12 for 42 yards and 2 picks.

Lamar Jackson against the Chiefs:
• 4-12
• 75 average Quarterback Rating
Lamar Jackson against everyone else:
• 54-12
• 102 average QBR

Mark Andrews career PPR fantasy points against the Chiefs:
• 12/9/2018: 0.0
• 9/22/2019: 4.5
• 9/28/2020: 5.2
• 9/19/2021: 10.7
• 9/5/2024: 3.4

Ravens yards per route run in Week 1:
• Isaiah Likely 3.17
• Rashod Bateman 1.18
• Zay Flowers 0.77
• Mark Andrews 0.37

Zay Flowers only had 37 yards on 6 receptions but it’s important to realize he lost another 9 yards and 5 receptions because of Ronnie Stanley lining up wrong.

Justin Tucker has only made 2 of his last 7 field goal attempts of 50+ yards. 11 of his last 21.

Derrick Henry had five carries on the first drive and scored a touchdown. Baltimore only gave him another three carries the entire half.

Xavier Worthy has more regular season TDs in his career as Skyy Moore.

Week 1 air yards:
• 112 — Collins
• 105 — Dell
• 9 — Diggs

Christian Kirk was third among Jaguars WRs in snaps and only played 3 of 12 plays with 2 or fewer WRs on the field.

Plays to Malik Nabers: +4.1 EPA.
All other Giants plays: -20.7 EPA.

Tonight marked the first game in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s NFL career with:
• Snap rate above 75%
• Less than 10% of Detroit’s receiving yards

There are only 2 QBs in modern NFL history that have attempted over 25 passes in their debut and threw for less than 100 yards:
• Desmond Ridder
• Caleb Williams

“If we’d just punted on 1st & 10 every time, we might’ve won the game” - Titans HC Brian Callahan

In Week 1, among 78 qualifying WRs, Marvin Harrison Jr. ranked:
• 68th in separation
• 72nd in route win rate

Trade Target Thursday:

This year, instead of our “Waiver Weapons” section, the team will be bringing you one guy each week that we’re looking to buy low on. We may eventually expand to include sell-high candidates as well, but figured buy candidates would be relevant to more people since any given random player is statistically more likely to be off your teams than on them. Let us know what you think in the comments!

This week’s Trade Target is Josh Jacobs, who checks the boxes we’re looking for in a quality RB starter, but (luckily for us) wasn’t terribly productive fantasy-wise in Week 1 + is now tagged as questionable after logging a limited practice on Wednesday. We know he’s:

• a proven talent (he led the league in scrimmage yards in 2022)

• getting high-value Red Zone touches (tied for second among RBs in Week 1)

• efficient (averaged 5.25 YPC against the Eagles, who boast PFF’s #3 ranked defensive line)

• not facing much competition for work (AJ Dillon is out for the season and MarShawn Lloyd is also banged up)

With Malik Willis taking over for the injured JLove, you can either take the “FUD” (fear, uncertainty and doubt) approach + try to convince your league mate that teams will stack the box against the Packers for weeks to come, or the “wait and see” approach + hope that his value drops further before you buy. If opting for the latter, though, be warned that higher impending volume (you have to imagine they will hand Jacobs the ball more rather than run their offense through Malik Willis…) might offset any efficiency lost due to teams covering the run more aggressively.

The Fun Stuff:

Hjalte Froholdt with the block of the year.

Will Levis reaction to his game losing interception.

Auburn RB commit Alvin Henderson put up over 100 fantasy points without a single reception - 435 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. His team lost, 80-78.

This kid at Tyreek Hill’s camp just couldn’t take the layup answer, huh…

Chargers social media team coming in hot with a little #throwbackthursday magic

The Steelers are both the only team in the AFC North without a touchdown this season and the only team with a win.

Anthony Richardson broke the passing chart.

They found Deshaun Watson’s burner on Twitter and some of this is just hilarious.

Third and goal, 93 yards to gain… what play are you dialing up?

That's Scorigami!! It's the 1085th unique final score in NFL history.

When you sign a deal for almost a quarter of a billion dollars, some of your boys might start pocket watching

Rolling into the second* weekend of the NFL season like Raiders rookie Dylan Laube.

Jason Kelce’s tits are struggling.

OK Derek Carr, talk your shit, you earned it

AJ Brown maxed out at 21.05 MPH here. His fastest top speed since his rookie year.

“Yeah, but why didn’t Dalton Kincaid have more targets?”

Korean call of Xavier Worthy’s first NFL Touchdown.

The Ravens decided to block Chris Jones with Justice Hill 1X1 on the last two plays. It worked…

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