Puka Doncic Setting Records
Welcome back!
4-0 teams entering week 5 like…
We got a good one for you this week. Let’s get to it.
Analysis & Hype:
Josh Allen in his last two games against Vic Fangio coached defenses: 49/65, 679 yards, 6 TD, 33 first downs, 62.3% success rate, .58 EPA/dropback. 7 rushes, 50 yards, 3 TD. Bills 2-0 with 96 combined points.
The Bills are now the best 3-1 team ever according to DVOA.
James Cook played 75% of snaps inside 10-yard line and handled 100% of rushing attempts.
Justin Fields on Sunday:
• 4 Passing TDs
• Passed for over 300 yards for the first time in his career
• Set a franchise record for most straight completions to start a game
• Lost
Zach Wilson is the only opposing QB to have more completions, more passing yards, more TD passes and fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes in a Mahomes start, college or pro (out of 127 total starts, including postseason).
Broncos RB Utilization after Javonte Williams injury:
Samaje Perine:
• 56% snaps
• 39% attempts
• 29% route participation
• 5 fantasy points
Jaleel McLaughlin
• 38% snaps
• 46% attempts
• 43% route participation
• 10 fantasy points
It's a small sample, but Jaleel McLaughlin had a 71% success rate this week (per Next Gen Stats' model), while Samaje Perine was at 33%.
Most yards per route run, Weeks 1-4 only, 2007-2023
• Brandon Aiyuk (2023 49ers) 4.9
• Randy Moss (2007 Patriots) 4.6
Puka Nacua is currently outpacing the two best receiving yard seasons in NFL history through 4 games.
('23) Puka Nacua - 501 Rec Yds
('21) Cooper Kupp - 431
('12) Calvin Johnson - 423
Rams’ rookie WR Puka Nacua has 39 receptions and surpassed Anquan Boldin (30 receptions in 2003) for the most receptions ever by a player in his first four NFL games. Nacua also surpassed Reggie Bush (34 receptions in 2006) for the most receptions by a player in his first five NFL games. Nacua also has 501 receiving yards and surpassed Boldin (464 yards in 2003) for the most receiving yards ever by a player in his first four NFL games.
Top WRs vs the Steelers this year:
Week 1: Brandon Aiyuk 8 rec. 129 yds, 2 TD
Week 2: Amari Cooper 7 rec. 90 yds
Week 3: Davante Adams 13 rec. 172 yds, 2 TD
Week 4: Nico Collins 6 rec. 116 yds, TD
Week 5: Zay Flowers???
Top WRs vs the Colts this year:
Week 1: Calvin Ridley 8 rec. 101 yds, 1 TD
Week 2: Nico Collins 7 rec. 146 yds, 1 TD
Week 3: Zay Flowers 8 rec. 48 yds
Week 4: Puka Nacua 9 rec. 163 yds, 1 TD
Week 5: DeAndre Hopkins???
Romeo Doubs is the highest graded Packers offensive player this season based on PFF analysis.
Romeo Doubs has the 2nd highest PFF Receiving grade among the 2022 WR class.
De'Von Achane in Week 4:
• 66% snaps
• 42% attempts
• 68% route participation
• 15% target share
Raheem Mostert:
• 41% snaps
• 37% attempts
• 37% routes
• 15% targets
De’Von Achane could rush for 0 yards on his next 30 attempts & he’d still be averaging over 5.0+ YPC.
De’Von Achane:
• is currently averaging the most yards per carry (11.4) in the entire NFL
• has more total TD’s (6) than any RB taken in the most recent NFL Draft
• has the sixth most rushing yards (309) in the league (despite having nearly half the carries of every RB in the Top-10)
• is the fastest player recorded yet this season at 21.93 MPH.
Achane has 6.39 rushing yards over expectation per carry. Next three closest?
• Breece Hall: 3.24
• Tyjae Spears: 2.47
• Bijan Robinson: 2.32
Aaron Rodgers told NBC’s Melissa Stark that his plan is to return and play this season.
Rookie Quarterbacks with 1200+ Passing Yards in the first four games of the season:
• Cam Newton
• Andrew Luck
• CJ Stroud
Steelers RBs this season, running behind PFF's 27th-ranked run-blocking o-line:
• Najee Harris: 49 atts, 7.08 avg box def (65th percentile), 4.29 ypc (57th percentile)
• Jaylen Warren: 24 atts, 6.71 avg box def (18th percentile), 3.38 ypc (18th percentile)
The way people talk about Najee Harris, you'd probably never expect him to be...
• 2nd in breakaway run rate
• 13th in evaded tackles
• 14th in juke rate
Yards after contact per rush leaders (min. 40 attempts):
• 4.04 — Christian McCaffrey
• 3.75 — Isiah Pacheco
• 3.68 — Jerome Ford
• 3.53 — Najee Harris
• 3.47 — Bijan Robinson
• 3.33 — Kenneth Walker
• 3.29 — James Cook
• 3.27 — Khalil Herbert
Lowest rates:
• 1.75 — Rhamondre Stevenson
• 1.98 — Josh Jacobs
• 2.09 — Miles Sanders
• 2.27 — Rachaad White
• 2.30 — Dameon Pierce
The Jags have faced two teams who rank in the bottom 5 in man coverage rate this year (entering Week 4). Christian Kirk saw a 9.4% and 15% target share in those games. They've faced two teams that rank in the top 5 in man coverage rate this year. Kirk's target shares in those games: 34.1% and 40.0%.
Running Backs with a Higher Carry% and Target Share than Jahmyr Gibbs:
• CMC
• Bijan Robinson
• Saquon Barkley
• Josh Jacobs
• Miles Sanders
• Kyren Williams
• [End of List]
Yards per route run in non garbage time, 2023:
1. Tyreek Hill, 5.1
2. Davante Adams, 3.4
3. George Pickens, 3.3
4. Mike Evans, 3.2
5. Keenan Allen, 3.0
6. Justin Jefferson, 2.9
7. Chris Olave, 2.9
8. Ceedee Lamb, 2.9
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown, 2.8
10. Deebo Samuel, 2.5
Rashee Rice is third amongst all qualifying receivers in targets per route run at 32%, behind only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams.
Saints Week 4 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
• Alvin Kamara - 25 (14 targets!)
• Kendre Miller - 2
Texans Week 4 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
• Dameon Pierce - 26
• Devin Singletary - 8
• Mike Boone - 1
David Montgomery had 113 yards after contact on Thursday night.
Absolutely awesome breakdown of Montgomery/Gibbs split from none other than Austin Ekeler (video)
Excellent thread on /R/DynastyFF: “2023 Dynasty Rookie Stock Watch - End of 1st Quarter Rankings”
Cold Water:
Mike Evans in 11 12 career match ups against Marshon Lattimore:
• 7-147-1
• 5-55-0
• 4-86-0
• 4-64-0
• 3-61-0 (ejected for fighting)
• 2-48-1
• 1-14-0 (injured after just 17 snaps)
• 1-13-0 (suspended one game for decking Lattimore)
• 1-3-1
• 1-2-1
• 0-0-0
• 3-40-0 (last week; injured, left in second quarter)
The Denver Broncos now have the worst defense ever tracked by DVOA through 4 games.
The Giants are 11-93 since the infamous boat photo was taken.
Lowest catchable target rate, according to Fantasy Points Data
• 57% — Kyle Pitts
• 58% — Jonathan Mingo
• 59% — Drake London
• 63% — Jahan Dotson, Darius Slayton, Amari Cooper
• 65% — Tee Higgins
• 68% — Jordan Addison
• 70% — Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Over the last three weeks, Jonnu Smith has scored 32.9 PPR points. Over the last three weeks, Kyle Pitts has scored 16.3 PPR points.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba through 4 games:
• 20 targets
• 12 receptions
• 62 receiving yards
• 0 touchdowns
Denver Broncos receiving yards leaders:
1. Marvin Mims (242)
2. Courtland Sutton (216)
3. Jerry Jeudy (158)
Denver Broncos target leaders:
1. Courtland Sutton (28)
2. Jerry Jeudy (17)
3. Javonte Williams (14)
4. Samaje Perine (13)
5. Marvin Mims (11)
The Bengals now are dead last in the league in offensive touchdowns scored this year.
Jack Del Rio (Commanders DC) play calling in overtime…
Najee Harris had a season-high 71 rushing yards today, but he was outscored in PPR formats by Jaylen Warren 11.5 to 11.3. Harris has yet to finish a game with more PPR points than Warren this season.
Reminder that Dalvin Cook is:
• NFL's 4th-worst RB in Rush Yards over Expectation
• 4th-worst RB in Success Rate
• Dead last in yards per attempt
• PFF's No. 52 graded RB among 57 qualifiers
Kyren Williams — “Elite role. Meh talent.”
Among 58 RBs this year with at least 15 rushes:
• 42nd in explosive run rate
• 44th in MTF/attempt
• 46th in yards after contact/attempt
Joe Burrow since being made the highest paid player in the NFL:
• Lower passer rating (69.1) than Zach Wilson and Desmond Ridder.
• Less passing yards (728) than Joshua Dobbs and Justin Fields.
• Lower completion percentage (57.6%) than every QB besides Jordan Love and Anthony Richardson.
• Fewest passing TD’s (2) of any starting QB.
Kenny Pickett threw 63% of his first down passes behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate of any QB this week. He averaged 0.5 air yds, the fewest of any QB this week. Results:
• -0.45 EPA/att
• 11% success
• 1.9 YPA
• Zero first down att gained over 5 yards.
Worst QBs in the league by success rate:
32. Ryan Tannehill - 33.85%
33. Zach Wilson - 33.33%
34. Kenny Pickett - 32.14%
Calvin Ridley's target shares by week:
• Week 1: 34.4%
• Week 2: 19.5%
• Week 3: 17.5%
• Week 4: 6.7%
Saints RB Alvin Kamara had 13 catches for 33 yards. That's the fewest receiving yards by a player with at least 13 catches in a game ever, breaking the previous record of 71 yards.
The Fun Stuff:
Anthony Richardson 42 yard jump pass on a flick while in the arms of Aaron Donald.
Sean Payton doing the coaching equivalent of sitting up in your gaming chair.
Justin Tucker, trap god.
This week’s episode of “Baker Mayfield gets really excited about football”
Too bad the Bears can’t scam their way to a championship 100 years later.
D’Shawn Jamison saw his chance to lay out Kirk Cousins and took it.
Daniel Brunskill fair catching the spike.
For those of you looking for inspiration on how to deal with the Kyle Pitts dilemma.
DJ Reed wanted to tell Mahomes his car’s warranty might be expired.
Never give up on your dreams: kicker edition.
Fuck it, Bijan Robinson Toy Story highlights
Waiver Weapons - Week Four:
As a reminder, Waiver Weapons is a new segment we’re trying out where the three of us each share a player that is on most leagues’ waiver wires who we think you could start that week, or are interesting stashes.
Week 4 Recap: Another tough week for the team, Luke Musgrave got injured early in the game, Richardson being surprisingly healthy made Downs a bad play, and Matt Canada hasn’t been fired yet so Calvin Austin was not able to produce. But with bye weeks starting this week, we know a surprising number of us will be turning to the waivers for a spot start!
Chris’ pick: Calvin Austin, WR, PIT (9% rostered on Sleeper) - As noted above, Matt Canada hasn’t been fired yet, but the Steelers will probably fall behind early and be passing a lot to catch up. Kenny Pickett (yep, the guy from the Cold Water section) might not play this week, but I honestly think that should be considered a positive note at this point. I mainly looked for a WR - the hole you’re most likely looking to fill this week [pause] with TB, LA, SEA and CLE on bye - who was facing an average-or-worse defense (BAL is 16th vs. WR), a stronger offense than their own team, and of course someone who is unowned in most leagues after waivers clear for the week; we should probably call this section “free agent weapons,” but I digress.
Camaron’s pick: Sam Howell, QB, WAS (30% rostered on Sleeper) - This week we’re looking to target the passing attack that is playing against the Bears terrible secondary. And while any of the receiving options like Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and Jahan Dotson are great spot starts I would prefer to have the guy throwing them all the ball in Sam Howell. So far what we’ve seen of Howell is bad pocket presence, staring down receivers, and an inability to run an NFL level offense consistency. But against the worst defense in the league, those red flags look more like green lights.
Will’s pick: Can I pick Anthony Richardson? No? Okay, Marvin Mims, WR, DEN (44% rostered on Sleeper) I’m cheating here since 44% isn’t abundantly available, but mims leads the Broncos in receiving yards (242) while only getting a small share of teams targets. Feels like the usage has to increase from here and he could be a valuable player going forward.