Patrick Mahomes, Elite WR
Ok, we're done calling every player an elite wide receiver...
Welcome back!
One of our writers, Camaron, has finished his first draft of the 2023 FF Newsletter’s redraft draft guide, and it will be releasing Friday. If you are interested in checking out how we use all of these analytics for projects, sign up for the discord via Patreon.
Now let’s get to the headlines!
Analysis & Hype:
Dameon Pierce looking like clear No. 1 back in Houston:
• Rested Week 1 preseason
• 67% of snaps in Week 2 with starters
• 58% route participation
• 67% of long-down-distance snaps
Keenan Allen was WR3 from Wk10-Wk18 last season (in PPR)
• He averaged 18.8 FPPG
• The last time he didn’t AVG 16+ FPPG in a season was in 2016 (when an injury ruined his season)
Keenan is the cheapest win now or redraft WR1, coming in at WR2/3 prices. Insane value at WR21 (47 overall) despite 2017-2021 stats like:
• 26%+ target share
• Average of 102 receptions
• 136+ targets
• Over 1,100 yards in 4/5 years
The Chargers first 4 opponents ranks in pass defense DVOA in 2022:
• MIA - 25th
• TEN - 28th
• MIN - 26th
• LV - 31st
Jeff Wilson played 8 full games (including playoffs) with the Dolphins last season. In that span, he logged:
• 60% of the snaps in 5/8 games
• 3.5 targets/game (Mostert averaged 2.8)
• 10+ fantasy points in 6/8
• 7 carries inside the 10 yard line (Mostert had 4)
Highest RB Fantasy Points per Game in 2022:
• Austin Ekeler - 21.9
• Christian McCaffrey - 21.0
• James Conner when Kyler is out - 19.6
• Josh Jacobs - 19.3
• Derrick Henry - 18.9
Chiefs WR snaps on Patrick Mahomes 26 preseason snaps:
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 20
• Skyy Moore - 17
• Rashee Rice - 11
• Justin Watson - 11
• Richie James - 6
• Justyn Ross - 2
Bills snap counts on the 16 plays in their second preseason game where Josh Allen worked with the first-team offense:
• Gabe Davis - 16
• James Cook - 15
• Stefon Diggs - 13
• Dalton Kincaid - 12
• Deonte Harty - 8
• Trent Sheffield - 6
• Khalil Shakir and Latavius Murray - 2
Dalton Kincaid's alignment so far this offseason: WR: 13, Inline: 12, Backfield: 1.
George Kittle put up 85/1053/5 in 14 games with Jimmy G at QB. Deebo Samuel put up 77/1405/6 & scored 339 fantasy points with Jimmy G at QB. Thinking Davante Adams (who averaged almost 20 PPG with Derek Carr last year) is going to fall off a cliff with Jimmy G at QB is absurd.
Najee Harris in 2022
• Total: 0.24 Missed Tackles Forced per Touch, 2.2% Explosive Play Rate - 314 Touches
• Only 1st/2nd Down, 4+ yards to go, max 7 box defenders: 0.25 MTF/TCH, 2.8% EXP/Play - 192 Touches
Jaylen Warren in 2022
• Total: 0.29 MTF/Touch, 1.9% Explosive Play Rate - 105 Touches
• Only 1st/2nd Down, 4+ yards to go, max 7 box defenders: 0.27 MTF/TCH, 1.9% EXP/Play - 55 Touches
Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris could be the next Zeke and Pollard.
Allen Robinson was in a route on 100% of the Steelers' passing plays with the starters in Week 2 of the preseason. He did the same thing in Week 1 and appears locked into significant playing time on a team that will use 11 personnel often.
Derek Carr told his brother David to make sure that he drafts Juwan Johnson in fantasy this year
Darren Waller's usage in Week 2’s preseason game:
• 80% route rate
• 44% target share
Travis Kelce by Year
• 2016: TE1
• 2017: TE1
• 2018: TE1
• 2019: TE1
• 2020: TE1
• 2021: TE2 (Shoutout to Mark Andrews)
• 2022: TE1
Mark Andrews has the HIGHEST Target Share for a Third, Fourth, and Fifth Year Tight End EVER. He joins Travis Kelce as the ONLY Tight Ends with a 20+ PPG Season in the Past Two Years
Second Year Tight Ends with a 25%+ Target Rate on 12.0+ aDOT
• Kyle Pitts
Second Year Tight Ends with a sub 60% Catchable Target Rate
• Kyle Pitts
“We’ve never seen such a talented player have such abysmal Quarterback play… don’t fade historic profiles”
Packers route rates with QB Jordan Love this preseason:
• Romeo Doubs - 100%
• Christian Watson - 94.7%
• Luke Musgrave - 89.5%
• Jayden Reed - 63.2%
Luke Musgrave: 89% route participation with 38% target share in Week 2 with the starters.
There have been 24 Second Year Wide Receivers to post 16+ PPG; they averaged a 25.7% Target Rate and 2.35 Yards per Route Run that year. Chris Olave posted a 27.6% Target Rate and 2.42 Yards per Route Run as a rookie.
Chris Olave put up a 2.25 yards per route run as a rookie. And every WR to do that finished as a Top 7 WR in their second year
Among 48 QBs with 20+ preseason dropbacks, no one is throwing it deeper than rookie Aidan O'Connell - he has 11.0 air yards/att (ranks #1) and still has completed 72% of his 30 att for 8.4 YPA. Out of 48 QBs he ranks:
• #1 in EPA/att
• #2 in success %
• #1 in first down %
• #1 in TD %
• #1 in 3rd down %
David Montgomery is taking over Jamaal Williams’ role that had:
• #1 Goal Line Carries
• #1 Red Zone Carries
Lions were #2 in Expected RB Points in 2022, and Jahmyr Gibbs has never had more than 35% of his teams carries.
Lowest Rate of Targeting RBs in 2022:
• Lamar Jackson 10.9%
• Jalen Hurts 12.2%
• Tua Tagovailoa 14.0%
• Kirk Cousins 14.1%
• Geno Smith 14.2%
Highest Rate of Targeting RBs in 2022:
• Baker Mayfield - 29%
• Daniel Jones - 27%
• Jameis Winston - 26%
• Justin Herbert - 25%
• Mac Jones - 23%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is being drafted higher than any of the 2022 rookie wide receivers were this time last year; his ADP of 57.4 outranks the 2022 ADP of:
• Drake London - 68.6
• Treylon Burks - 87.4
• Chris Olave - 88.2
• Garrett Wilson - 112.4
• Jahan Dotson - 138
Running Backs with a 14%+ Target Share in their 2nd and 3rd Seasons:
• Christian McCaffrey
• Alvin Kamara
• Arian Foster
• Reggie Bush
• Ray Rice
• Tarik Cohen
• D'Andre Swift
Sam Howell had 7 RB targets on 17 pass attempts.
Roschon Johnson has totaled 1 yard before contact on 19 carries this preseason. After contact?
• 75 yards (4th)
• 98.7% of yards (4th)
• 0.32 missed tackles forced per run (4th)
PFF Highest-graded WR in NFL preseason so far: Packers’ WR Romeo Doubs - 89.9
Travis Etienne has 9 carries inside the 5-yard line last year. Two were TDs, two were plays where he could have done better. The other five are in this Twitter thread.
Adam Thielen has quietly been playing "big slot" for the Panthers in pre-season so far (12 snaps in the slot to 4 out wide). It's been DJ Chark and Jonathan Mingo out wide with the starters.
Amon-Ra St Brown in 2022:
• 32% Target Share/Route Run
• Top 10 Easiest WR schedule
• Finished as the WR9 despite being tackled on the 1yd line 7 times!
Raiders rookie QB Aidan O'Connell tonight: 11/18 passing, 163 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 127.8 passer rating. Overall through two weeks of preseason: 26/36, 304 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.
Passing touchdowns in 2022:
• KC - 41
• BUF/CIN - 35
• SEA/SF/MIN/MIA - 30
…
• NYJ - 15
• PIT - 12
Cold Water:
The Broncos starting offense with Russell Wilson this preseason...
• 5 Drives
• 10 points
• 3.2 yards per play
Rondale Moore played 42.8% of his snaps out wide last year. That number is down to 21.1% this preseason. Doesn't look like Moore will play much in 2-WR sets in new OC Drew Petzing's offense.
Last year only Pickett, Mac Jones, and Mike White had a worse completion rate over expected than Deshaun Watson from week 13-18. Watson was 20th out of 24 qualifying QBs in success rate.
Luke Musgrave is skyrocketing up draft boards off of his preseason performance of three catches for 21-scoreless yards in two games.
According to Stephen A Smith on First Take, Bills’ WR Stefon Diggs does not want to be in Buffalo.
Dolphins snaps with the 1st team today:
- No De'Von Achane with the starters
- No Cedrick Wilson with the starters
Every single Bryce Young dropback. That O-Line is going to get him killed…
The Fun Stuff:
Mahomes is a dual threat QB
Deep dive analysis on Zero-RB’s effectiveness. (Better as a backup strategy than a planned one).
NFL Player Betting lines in a super nice readable google sheet.
Deuce Vaughn will be RB2 in Dallas by the regular season.
The last time the Ravens lost a preseason game they finished 5-11.
Kendre Miller pass pro breakdown.
Brandin Cooks is a licensed pilot and took Micah Parsons and Stephon Gilmore on a plane ride over Seattle before yesterday’s preseason game?!
Anthony Richardson freakish arm.
Tyreek Hill doesn’t watch film.
Jakeem Grant next to Dawand Jones is amazing.
Just kidding… here’s the original.
(Tik Tok warning) Ravens Commanders scuffle shuffle.
ADP Price Check
You all liked last week’s price check segment so much we brought it back for another week. This week we have a tight end that you’re probably tired of reading about in our newsletter, but tough. We’re doing it anyway.
Dalton Kincaid is the Bills 1st round rookie Tight End that everyone should be drafting. Last season the Bills were desperate for a #2 option on their team. Gabe Davis put up a respectable 17% target share, yet couldn’t catch those targets enough to be relevant to the team. The Bills couldn’t find someone in free agency to fill the WR2 role they needed, so they looked to the draft. But by the time they were on the clock, all of the best Wide Receivers were taken, so what did they do? They drafted a tight end who performed at an elite level in college, and plan on using him in the Travis Kelce role.
Kincaid has already shown great usage in the preseason with the starters and will build on that quickly. If we predict Kincaid to reach a 15% target share, and just perform with the same levels of efficiency as the average 2022 Bills player, then Kincaid is projected to have 59 catches, 768 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. That’s 173.5 PPR fantasy points, or last year’s TE6. Kincaid is going as the TE13 on Sleeper, and even later on other platforms. Draft him with confidence this year. Before you say anything, yes, Tight Ends are notorious for coming along slowly. Kincaid, however, is entering a plum situation with elite talent. Given his current redraft rank, he’s a low risk, high reward prospect.