Our Title Guy Is Off This Week

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Welcome back for another week of newsletter-y goodness!

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The aforementioned “title guy” is also our intro guy, so there’s not much else to say here; without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

The Cardinals rushing offense post Week 10 (Kyler's return):
• 5.3 yards per attempt (1st)
• 0.11 EPA/Att (1st)
• 15.2% Boom Rate (1st)
• 23.8% Broken Tackle Rate (1st)

Jaylen Waddle was the WR20 per-game last season with just four TDs, and went 8-142-1 on nine targets in the game Hill missed.

Justin Jefferson's 17-game pace in his four games post-injury without Kirk: 128-2,023-8

Despite the fact that Travis Etienne averaged 15.1 PPG (RB5) last season - more than Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor - he’s currently being drafted as RB10, available in the fourth round.

Saquon Barkley has run the ball a grand total of 19 times in his entire six-year career in the 4th Q with a lead of 8 points or more. PHI RBs have received 109 carries up 8 or more points in the 4th over just the last two years alone.

Fun fact: David Njoku led all tight ends in YAC (8th overall in the league).

TEs with the most 10+ yard receptions in 2023:
• George Kittle, Evan Engram and TJ Hockenson (40)
• Travis Kelce (39)
• Jake Ferguson (36)

Prior to his ACL injury in 2023, TJ Hockenson was having his most dominant season yet. Despite missing the last two games of the season, Hock finished the year with:
• 127 targets (2nd)
• 95 receptions (2nd)
• 960 yards (4th)
• 219 fantasy points

2023 Jonnu Smith among Tight Ends:
• YAC - 8th
• Broken Tackles - 6th
• 10+ Yard Plays - 12th

Only two Rookie Running Backs have ever posted 17+ PPG on a sub 40% Carry%
• Alvin Kamara
• De’Von Achane

When Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow have been on the field together since 2021:
• Chase: 27% targets, 2.41 YPRR, 38% air yards
• Higgins: 23% targets, 1.90 YPRR, 35% air yards

Bijan Robinson vs Isiah Pacheco
• Odds to lead the league in rushing yds: Bijan +2200, Pacheco +1900
• Odds to go over 925.5 rushing yards: Bijan -118, Pacheco -112
• Odds to score over 6.5 TDs: Bijan -108, Pacheco -102
• ADP: Bijan 6.9, Pacheco 45.2

If we remove all of Kyren Williams' games where he played 80% or more of the Rams snaps (trying to account for Blake Corum being mixed in), he averaged:
• 21.1 half PPR points
• 19.6 carries
• 3.1 targets

In 2003, fourteen running backs eclipsed 1,200 rushing yards. Twenty years later, there was only one: Christian McCaffrey.

Davante Adams has posted 15+ PPG in 8 straight seasons. Stefon Diggs has posted 15+ PPG in 4 straight seasons. Mike Evans has posted 15+ PPG in 6 straight seasons. Keenan Allen has posted 15+ PPG in 7 straight seasons.

Stefon Diggs' catchable deep target rate:
• 2021: 60.7%
• 2022: 60.0%
• 2023: 33.3%

Most rushing TDs from outside the 10-yard line since 2021:
10 - Deebo Samuel, Derrick Henry
9 - Nick Chubb, Kenneth Walker
8 - Tony Pollard
7 - Jonathan Taylor, Raheem Mostert, Christian McCaffrey
6 - Josh Allen, Rashaad Penny, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, RB Travis Etienne

Most rushing TDs from the 1-yard line since 2021
22 - Jalen Hurts
[…]
14 - Jamaal Williams
12 - Joe Mixon
11 - Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott
10 - James Conner, Josh Jacobs
9 - Gus Edwards
8 - Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey

Quarterbacks with 27+ Passing TDs in the last 4 seasons:
4/4 - Allen, Mahomes
3/4 - Cousins
2/4 - Rodgers, Brady, Herbert, Prescott, Burrow, Goff

Best ever Pass TD/INT ratios among QBs with 4,000 Pass Yards in a single season
• 2018 Aaron Rodgers 25/2
• 2020 Aaron Rodgers 48/5
• 2021 Aaron Rodgers 37/4
• 2014 Aaron Rodgers 38/5
• 2011 Aaron Rodgers 45/6
• 2019 Aaron Rodgers 26/4

Many people call Josh Allen a "turnover machine". He has a career 71 INTs in his first 6 seasons. Here are some other "turnover machines" throughout their first 6 years:
• Peyton Manning - 110
• Dan Marino - 103
• John Elway - 96
• Brett Favre - 79
• Tom Brady - 66

Catchable throw rate on attempts 10+ yards downfield
• Tua Tagovailoa - 73.8%
• Jared Goff - 73.5%
• Brock Purdy - 73.3%
• Kirk Cousins - 71.8%
• Dak Prescott - 71.4%

Out of 120 qualified receivers, Garrett Wilson ranked 53rd in yard per route run while the other Jets receivers ranked 112th and 113th.

Nico Collins had 5 top 5 weekly finishes and 9 within the top 24 last year.

Jahmyr Gibbs:
• 316 Receiving Yards
• 62 Receptions
Ezekiel Elliott:
• 313 Receiving Yards
• 51 Receptions
• Would have been more if this 74-yard receiving TD weren’t called back on a hold away from the play

Yards per route run leaders when using motion:
1. Tyreek Hill
2. CeeDee Lamb
3. Chris Olave
4. DeAndre Hopkins

Ricky Pearsall scored a 9.91 out of 10.0 on his Relative Athletic Score, ranking 31st out of 3,402 WRs from 1987 to 2024.

Chris Godwin has had 125+ targets and 1,000+ yards in three straight season.

Josh Palmer when healthy, without Keenan Allen over the last two seasons:
• 2022: 17% target share, 14 PPR points per game
• 2023: 21% target share, 12.5 PPR points per game

Breece Hall and Javonte Williams will be 2 years away from their ACL tears in 2024. Since 2011 RBs after ACL tears improved year 2 post-op:
• Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt +17%
• Yards Created per Attempt +9%
• Receptions per Game +39%

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Cold Water:

Catchable throw rate on attempts 10+ yards downfield
• Baker Mayfield - 59.2%
• Bryce Young - 59.0%
• Joe Flacco - 58.0%
• Kyler Murray - 57.5%
• Will Levis - 56.7%

Alexander Mattison had 9 rushes inside the 5 yard line last yr the result? -7 yards & 0 TDs. He's the first RB in at least 25 years to have more than 6 attempts inside the 5 but score 0 TDs and actually lose at least 2 yards in total.

In 2023, 58% of all TDs were passing TDs. Five teams posted a rate above 70%: MIN, TB, DEN, GB, and KC. Over the past five seasons, 10 of 12 teams to post a rate above 70% finished with fewer passing TDs the following year. That group’s total dropped by 8.7 passing TDs, on average.

During Kliff Kingsbury's tenure at the helm in Arizona, RB target share ranked:
• 11th lowest
• 12th lowest
• 12th lowest

TE Spike Weeks (15+ PPR points) over the past two seasons:
McBride - 5
Andrews - 6
Kincaid - 1 (One Season)
Kyle Pitts - 1

Jerome Ford last year when playing 50% of snaps:
• 12.3 Points per Game
• 3.9 Yards per Carry

Players with the Lowest EPA/Rush Attempt in 2023 (minimum 99 designed runs):
• Miles Sanders
• Joshua Kelley
• Dameon Pierce
• Saquon Barkley

Davante Adams pros and cons:
• Chance at 30% Targe Share
• Elite Route Runner
• Points per Game have fallen in three straight seasons
• Only 4 top 16 finishes in 2023
• One of the worst QB rooms in the league

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The Fun Stuff:

Giants QB Interviews behind the scenes:
• Caleb Williams
• Drake Maye
• Jayden Daniels

Puka Nacua 🤝 Al Michaels

Brandon Aiyuk, that’s not your film room!

Every Tank Dell rookie season target

Will Levis blooper reel

Every Deebo Samuel TD run from outside the 10-yard line since 2021.

Jaguars DE Josh Allen is changing his name to Joshua Hines-Allen.

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