Offseason's Greatest Hits
LET’S GOOO!!!
The season is here and we’re doing something different today. I went back through all the links from the entire offseason (including this past week) and put together a recap of the offseason’s best headlines before kickoff. This should help refresh your memory on some of the best hype/analysis that some of us may have either forgotten or missed entirely. In some cases, a lot of the buzz may have died down and been replaced with a new flavor of the week. This could be a good chance to target some of these guys in trades or on the wire. Hope you enjoy it!
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Good luck this season!
-Will
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Analysis & Hype:
“Before injuring his shoulder in Week 11 last year, Kyler Murray had the most fantasy points of a QB through 10 weeks ... *of all time*. And he did that with 9 games, not 10.”
Since 2014, there have been 9 instances in college ball of a player hitting 200 receiving yards in the 1st half. DeVonta Smith has 3 of them.
Merrill Reese on DeVonta Smith: “In 50 years, I’ve seen a lot of wide receivers and I’ve seen great ones like Harold Carmichal, who’s going into the Hall of Fame, and my partner in the booth, Mike Quick, who went to five Pro Bowls. So I’ve seen great receivers,” Reese said. “But I’ve never seen a receiver that makes my jaw drop the way that he does.”
“I don’t think I’ve seen Devonta Smith get touched off the line one time all night. Being 170 doesn’t matter if DBs can’t even get a hand on you anyway.”
“Jalen Hurts averaged 11.5 rushing attempts per game in his four starts. That’s more than any other QB. The upside is there.”
“Clyde Edwards-Helaire put up 1100 scrimmage yards in 12.5 games as a rookie in a notoriously complex Andy Reid offense behind an atrocious OL.”
Fantastic Clyde Edwards-Helaire thread on Twitter.
“Been saying that #Chiefs could have their best OL they have had since Mahomes has been there…”
“If you're not convinced T.J. Hockenson is about to join the elites at TE ... Hockenson last season scored the 7th most PPR points by a 2nd-year TE over the past 10 years. Ahead of him: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Aaron Hernandez, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce”
"Hockenson might be having the best summer of anyone in Allen Park, and has been Jared Goff’s No. 1 target in the passing game.... has been the best target in camp, and it’s not close."
There are only 3 WR’s in the history of the NFL who are at least 6’4” & scored 10+ TD’s as a rookie: ⁃ Randy Moss ⁃ Mike Evans ⁃ Chase Claypool.
These historical comps for Chase Claypool & Tee Higgins.
A friendly reminder that Justin Herbert is going to be playing behind an upgraded offensive line after breaking rookie records last year.
Keenan Allen targets in 11 non-injury-shortened games with Justin Herbert: 19, 19, 13, 12, 11, 11, 11, 11, 10, 10, 7.
Nick Chubb missed 4 games and never surpassed a 62% snap share in 2020, but still finished as an RB1.
Jonathan Taylor’s 2020 season was remarkable. In NFL history, there have only been 14 instances of a player having: -At least 1,100 rushing yards -At least 5 yards per carry -At least 10 rushing touchdowns -At least 35 receptions. Names included on that list: Jonathan Taylor, Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, Saquon Barkley, Ladanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, Ahman Green, Clinton Portis, Priest Holmes. Taylor did it as a rookie.
"[Jonathan] Taylor has also been an active and able receiver, catching a team-leading six passes in 11-on-11 work through the past two practices."
The Jaguars really liked Dolphins Rookie WR Jaylen Waddle. At one point they forgot to blur out their draft board, showing Waddle with the same grade as Trevor Lawrence.
This one is nuts: Jaylen Waddle generated a perfect passer rating when targeted (158.3) in 2 of his 3 college seasons.
Kurt Warner on Trey Lance: “[If] he gets better from a consistency standpoint, maybe he’s the best quarterback we have in this draft.”
“Most yards per rush among RBs with 300+ carries since 2018: 1. Nick Chubb (5.23) 2. Gus Edwards (5.2)”
Bruce Arians: “Antonio Brown is playing at a speed he was at 4-5 years ago.”
This puts Najee Harris in nice company: “Top-5 RBs in missed tackles forced per reception over the past six college classes from my charting: 1. Najee Harris (0.58) 2. Alvin Kamara (0.53) 3. Christian McCaffrey (0.45) 4. Zack Moss (0.44) 5. Kareem Hunt (0.42)” Ignores Zack Moss
Running Backs to earn an elite 90.0+ overall PFF grade in 2020: Derrick Henry - 92.4 and Damien Harris - 90.3
Really, really liked this Twitter thread on finding/chasing this year’s DK Metcalf.
PFF Grade on throws past 1st read since 2019: (min. 60 attempts) 1st - Justin Fields - 90.6 2nd - Zach Wilson - 90.1 3rd - Trey Lance - 87.2 ... 7th - Trevor Lawrence - 78.6 8th - Mac Jones - 75.7
Joe Mixon led the NFL in touches pre-injury. The Bengals didn’t add a real replacement for Gio Bernard. "I don't want Joe (Mixon) to leave the field, and I think he's up for that challenge." Hope springs eternal.
List of the number of times players received 10+ targets in a game in 2020.
Video and Twitter thread breaking down why D'Andre Swift has “League winning” and “Exceptionally rare” upside.
“Jamaal Williams had 6 carries inside-the-5 last year and and scored once. D’Andre Swift had 11 carries inside-the-5 and scored 6 TDs. D’Andre Swift is the goal-line back.”
“In Mark Andrews' 2020 ‘down year,’ he averaged 2.00 yards per route run - top 6 among 48 qualified tight ends - played a career-high 58% of offensive snaps, and afterwards earned a top-3 TE contract from one of smartest orgs in the league. I like betting on the Ravens bet here.”
Most receiving TDs of 20+ yards in college football since 2019: Bengals Rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase with 14. And Chase didn't even play last season.
“Ja'Marr Chase went 84-1780-20 at 19 years old for LSU. I refuse to believe he suddenly forgot how to catch the football.”
Ryan Fitzpatrick Is working with speed this year. 40 times: Curtis Samuel 4.31 Terry McLaurin 4.33 Antonio Gibson 4.39 Dyami Brown 4.44 Logan Thomas 4.61
“It sounds like Logan Thomas caught about 7 touchdowns from Fitz today. He could be about to have a massive season”
Antonio Gibson gained positive yardage on 96.2% of his carries last season, the highest rate since 2012 .f
Sam Darnold's 2020 vs 2021 — 2020: Adam Gase Frank Gore, Jamison Crowder, Braxton Berrios, Breshad Perriman 2021: Joe Brady, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr.
If you don’t want to go overpay for Brandon Aiyuk, don’t read this Twitter thread.
Jaguars beat writer: "I asked somebody in the #Jaguars building: Who is the player that the coaches are buzzing about? The answer was Laviska Shenault"
"[Laviska] Shenault's skill set is among the rarest in the NFL, as he has the short-area quickness, change of direction and balance of a much smaller player. He combines all of this with his size and strength to win at every level of the field as a pass-catcher."
Comprehensive Twitter thread explaining why Kyle Pitts is a true Unicorn.
"[Raheem] Mostert is the crown jewel of the group. If he’s healthy in 2021, he’ll almost certainly be the 49ers’ leading runner. And considering how much the 49ers run the ball, a healthy Mostert likely would be among the league leaders at his position."
In case you’re in the mood for an overly dramatic, scorching take on Javonte Williams: "He's the best RB in the Draft. He has the ability to be a 1000y rusher & receiver like @CMC_22. He's as physical as Nick Chubb, as gifted as Alvin Kamara on 3rd down and as patient as LeVeon Bell. He is the MF truth."
Broncos scout comps Javonte Williams to Nick Chubb and Zeke. “I think he’s the number 1 running back [in the class].”
Javonte Williams forced the most missed tackles in college football last season with 76. It becomes even more impressive when you consider he was splitting time and did it on only 157 attempts.
The Elijah Moore hype reached face-melting temperatures this offseason:
• "This isn’t written lightly: The Jets might have someone really, really special."
• “Jets have been waiting two decades for WR prospect like Elijah Moore”
• “Rookie wide receiver Elijah Moore was the most impressive player — offense or defense, any age — whenever he was on the field.”
• “Elijah Moore does this every day. As promising as I’ve seen a rookie wideout”
• “I’ve seen enough early reports + the college tape… I’m ready to go from 0 to 100 and leap to hall of fame comparisons. Elijah Moore is going to be Antonio Brown. Let’s ride.”
• "It’s getting exhausting writing about [Elijah] Moore because what else is there to say? He’s making plays in the slot and split wide. He’s getting open deep and short. He’s virtually uncoverable near the goal line. Every day he does something else that makes you turn your head."
This Ryan Tannehill vs. Patrick Mahomes graphic boggles the mind.
Steelers WR breakdown in Diontae Johnson's healthy games last season:
• Diontae Johnson: 26% target share, 17.8 fantasy points per game
• JuJu Smith-Schuster: 21% target share, 16.1 fantasy points per game
• Chase Claypool: 17% target share,12.4 fantasy points per game
Joe Burrow was on pace for a league-leading 658 attempts last year. As a rookie. Without Ja'Marr Chase.
Bengals OC notes that WR Tee Higgins has gotten "markedly more explosive."
You won’t see too many DJ Moore over AJ Brown takes for Dynasty these days, but here’s a well-thought-out thread on just that.
“Theme of 2021: Jerry Jeudy torching DBs.” was a pretty good summary after a few weeks of every Broncos beat writer talking about how often Jeudy was snatching DBs souls.
"Ask anyone around the Raiders facilities & they'll tell you how excited they are for Bryan Edwards... He's been on a mission. He's not only been creating separation on his routes, but is also using his physicality to go up over defensive backs and catch tightly contested passes"
Since 2018, Robert Woods has:
• more receptions than Amari Cooper and Alvin Kamara
• more receiving yards than Adam Thielen and Allen Robinson
• more targets than Mike Evans and Michael Thomas
• higher catch % than Julio Jones and Tyreek Hill
And now he has Matt Stafford throwing the ball to him.
Chargers OC Joe Lombardi on Mike Williams: “As much as this offense will resemble New Orleans, he plays the ‘X’ and the ball has always kind of found the ‘X’ receiver in this offense… I see a big role for him. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on nice numbers coming from him on the stat sheet, that’s for sure.”
Hype for the entire Chargers passing game: “I told you guys, best passing offense in the league. We’re going to throw this shit down the field.” - Brandon Staley
“In NFL history only two players have ever rushed for over 3,000 yards, scored over 35 touchdowns and averaged over five yards per carry in their first four seasons. One is the legendary Jim Brown... The other? Aaron Jones.”
Emmanuel Sanders talking about Marquez Callaway in 2020 will get you jazzed. (Video)
PFFs highest-graded WRs this preseason:
Marquez Callaway - 95.4
Jakobi Meyers - 91.3
Corey Davis - 90.2
(Graph) — Looks great for David Montgomery and Mike Davis: “How often RBs broke tackles as pass-catchers in 2020
(Graph) “2020 Rushing TDs Over Expected: Kamara +4.5 Dobbins +3.7 Chubb +3.4 Gibson + 3.4 --- Zeke -5.6” “Ezekiel Elliott had nearly 12 expected rushing TDs last year *without Dak*. Fantasy’s biggest positive regression candidate.”
“Corey Davis receives each of Zach Wilson’s first 4 NFL throws. Some trust clearly built between the rookie and his WR1.”
“Tua Tagovailoa just exhibited off-balance, late-developing play arm whip on a laser to Hunter Long. Different dude out there right now than what we saw as a rookie.”
“Ravens OC Greg Roman spoke glowingly of Sammy Watkins, who is back with Roman after playing under him in 2015. “He’s one of the best receivers in the NFL, period,” Roman said. Watkins has been the Ravens’ best WR in first 3 days of training camp.”
Great article from this week: Scott Barrett’s 96 stats
Quick look at the teams who allowed the most top-12 games a year ago to help with week 1 lineup decisions.
Deep Sleepers & Dynasty Stashes:
The Chiefs are reportedly using more multiple-TE sets this summer, and fifth-round rookie TE Noah Gray has been a standout at minicamp. Travis Kelce says Noah Gray is ‘years ahead of being a rookie’
“It’s really hard not to hype the camp Donovan Peoples-Jones is having. It really is. Trying to maintain perspective but he shows up multiple times per day.
“I have a hunch Marquez Valdes-Scantling is going to have a monster season, for him at least. I’m talking 1,000 yards and eight TDs. His hands have looked much more reliable during camp than they have in seasons past, and I think he’ll be far more than just the deep-ball threat”
On Chargers 23 year old former XFL TE Donald Parham Jr.: “The 6-foot-8 second-year tight end has been a favorite target of quarterback Justin Herbert in training camp” He’s also “made strides as a blocker and that could lead to more snaps this season.”
"Rookie tight ends don't always make an immediate impact, but [Kylen] Granson has been the Colts' most impressive tight end so far. …Granson looks like he could be a playmaker."
The Fun Stuff:
Me just before Week 1 vs. me in Week 17.
“Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s at the Kentucky Derby to arrest Tom Brady.”
Tyreek Hill trolling the NFL.
Wide Receivers when they get a first down.
Oh, okay Justin Herbert.
Fantasy mangers 1 week into the preseason.
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