Nick Chubb is Back to Win Championships
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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!
It only took 4 seasons for D’Andre Swift truthers to feel that sweet, sweet vindication. 48 Months of pain was worth it.
Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
Only George Kittle and Brock Bowers have scored more PPR points than Kyle Pitts among all TEs since Week 5.
2024 Fantasy point per route run leaders:
• 0.76 - A.J. Brown
• 0.74 - Rashee Rice
• 0.66 - Nico Collins
• 0.64 - Josh Downs (without Anthony Richardson on the field)
• 0.63 - Justin Jefferson
Four players currently have 70+ targets this season:
• Garrett Wilson (84)
• Malik Nabers (73)
• CeeDee Lamb (72)
• Wan'Dale Robinson (72)
Caleb Williams is 39-of-60 for 402 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT in the 4th quarter.
Yards per route vs. press man coverage.
1. A.J. Brown (6.5)
2. Ladd McConkey (5.3)
3. Justin Jefferson (4.5)
4. CeeDee Lamb (4.2)
5. Malik Nabers (3.9)
RBs to rush for 50+ yards against the Ravens this year:
• Nick Chubb
Missed tackles per touch leaders:
• 36% - James Conner
• 32% - Ken Walker
• 28% - Bucky Irving
De’Von Achane 17 game pace receiving only: 113-1105-11, 17 PPG on receiving alone.
De’Von Achane is the RB1 in PPG (26.4 PPG) in games Tua Tagovailoa has played in this season.
D’Andre Swift has scored 18+ fantasy points in 4-consecutive games.
Only one Receiver is averaging over 4 yards per route run and 3 YAC Over Expected: AJ Brown.
Aaron Jones saw 100% of Minnesota's running back rushes against the Rams. That's only the second time he's seen every running back attempt in his backfield in his career.
Noah Gray has the second-highest catch rate -- 94.4% -- among qualified NFL pass catchers (152 players).
Bo Nix is 4th in expected PPG (20.5) amongst QB’s this season.
Bo Nix is also one of four rookies since 1970 with 8+ pass TDs and 4+ rushing TDs through his first 8 career games, joining Dak Prescott, RGIII and Cam Newton.
Evan Engram last year with Christian Kirk:
• 7.5 targets per game
Without Kirk:
• 10.2 targets per game
Jared Goff has the highest Comp Pct (83.0%) and Pass Rating (146.5) in a 5-game span in NFL history.
Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir in reg season last two years:
• 83 targets
• 75 catches
Garrett Wilson in two games with Davante Adams:
• 14.7 fantasy points per game
• 99% routes
• 27% targets
• 56% air yards
Highest yards per route run average among rookies in Weeks 1-8 since at least 2006 via PFF:
1. Justin Jefferson (3.1)
2. Ja’Marr Chase (3.0)
3. Brian Thomas Jr. (2.7)
Jayden Daniels' ranks among rookies in Weeks 1-8 since at least 2000 via TruMediaSports:
• 72% completion rate (1st)
• 0.25 EPA per dropback (1st)
• 8.4 yards per attempt (1st)
• 8.0 net yards per attempt (1st)
NFL RedZone week 8: 71 total TD’s - - Most this season!
Keon Coleman now ranks 5th in receiving yards over expected this season (+136), per NextGenStats.
Buccanneers passing attack without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in Week 8:
Cade Otton: 29.1 points, 88% routes, 22% targets.
Trey McBride has a 17-game pace of 100+ receptions & 1,000+ yards.
Detroit currently has 52 points, and 55 net passing yards. The last team to put up 50+ points with less than 100 passing yards was the Bears....in 1955.
UDFA WRs with an 80+ PFF Receiving Score:
• Doug Baldwin
• Jalen Coker
Najee Harris is 6th in the NFL in rushing yards.
Most yards per pass attempt this season (min. 35): Malik Willis (9.7). Most yards per carry this season (min. 15): Malik Willis (8.6).
Joe Mixon finishes in games this season (PPR): RB2, RB35 (injured), RB2, RB4, RB6.
Keon Coleman now ranks 5th in receiving yards over expected this season (+136).
Cold Water:
Xavier Worthy has accumulated -134 receiving yards over expected this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Cedric Tillman now has more WR1 games this season than these WRs:
Diggs, McLaurin, D Smith, Pickens, Cooper, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Adams, Tyreek, Pittman, Waddle, Dell.
106 different WRs have 4+ receptions in a game this year. Jordan Addison is not one of them.
The NFL record for most games in a season by a team with 70 or fewer rushing yards and 180 or more rushing yards allowed is 6. The 2024 Dallas Cowboys have done it 4 times in 7 games.
Anthony Richardson’s 31.3 completion % was the second-lowest by any player in a single game with 30+ pass attempts over the last 10 seasons, per NFL Pro. The only player worse was Josh Allen (30.0%), which was also this season and also on the road against the Texans.
The Ravens defense has 8 dropped interceptions on the season, no other defense has more than 5.
Chiefs against RB runs this season...
• 72.3% success (1st)
• 3.0 YPC (1st)
• 16.0% 1D/TD% (3rd)
• 5.0% 10+ yard runs (2nd)
• 0.80 YPC before contact (2nd)
• 2.17 YPC after contact (1st)
Kyler Murray EPA per dropback:
• Unpressured: 0.14 (23rd)
• Pressured: 0.16 (1st)
Traded WRs this week in PPR PPG:
Amari Cooper: WR42
DeAndre Hopkins: WR69
Davante Adams: WR104
1 whole minute of Anthony Richardson getting no help from his receivers against the Texans. (14.32 dropped fantasy points).
1st Round Quarterbacks to Pass for LESS than 6.0 Adjusted Yards per Attempt in their Second Season:
• Sam Bradford
• Blaine Gabbert
• Dwayne Haskins
• Josh Rosen
• Brandon Weeden
• Christian Ponder
• Vince Young
• Matt Leinart
• Anthony Richardson
Alexander Mattison against the Chiefs:
• 14 carries
• 15 yards
• Long rush: 5 yards
Xavier Worthy has accumulated -134 receiving yards over expected this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Deshaun Watson has never thrown for over 300 yards in any of his 19 games as a Brown. Jameis Winston and Joe Flacco have hit that mark 6 times in 7 combined starts for Cleveland.
Kyler Murray's fantasy production (PPG) has gone down every single season after a Call of Duty game was released.
Tyrone Tracy has as many 100+ yard rushing games as Javonte Williams does in four seasons of NFL play.
Waiver Weapons - Week Seven:
Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Last week Camaron and Chris had the right process with positive usage from Shepard and Wilson (that should have been a touchdown), but not the right results. Sometimes in fantasy you can do everything right and get the wrong result (CMC owners unite). It’s better to be lucky than good.
Camaron’s Pick: Taysom Hill, TE, NOS (23% rostered on Sleeper) - Taysom Hill is a running back with a Tight End label and there is no better matchup for running backs than the Carolina Panthers. Derek Carr is projected to be back which should improve the offense, and Taysom Hill will take advantage in the red zone. Don’t over think it, that type of volume is impossible at TE.
Chris’ Pick: Joe Flacco, QB, IND (19% rostered on Sleeper) - Yes, I am back with another quarterback pick. In the three games he has played this season (one of which where he only played 80% of snaps after Richardson got injured), Flacco has thrown seven touchdowns against just one interception. Two of those matchups came against tough defenses (PIT and TEN), which bodes well for Flacco’s rest-of-season outlook (the one knock here is that he has a tough schedule - fourth worst for a QB from Weeks 9-17 per FantasyPros). Flacco has talented WRs in Downs and Pittman, an RB who draws a lot of attention in Taylor, one of the better O-lines in the league, and is a proven commodity in his own right - a lot to like here!
Trade Target Thursday:
This week, we’re swinging to the opposite end of the value spectrum and looking to grab a guy who may not even be rostered in your league (in which case, consider this an addendum to my Waiver Weapon and grab him over Flacco - he just didn’t qualify because he is a bit over 33% rostered): Bo Nix.
Much has been made of the quarterbacks who went 1-2-3 in this year’s draft - Williams, Daniels, and Maye. Their counterparts drafted slightly later in the first round - Penix, McCarthy and Nix - have received much less fanfare, on the other hand. In the cases of the first two, I get it (from a redraft perspective), but Bo Nix has been criminally underrated relative to his performance:
Through Week 8, he is the QB9 on the season, and that includes a few stinkers over his slow start to the season (which you’d expect of a rookie finding his feet). On a PPG basis over the last four weeks, he is the QB4 behind only Lamar, Baker and Hurts.
Part of that is undoubtedly his talent translating to the NFL, but part of it is system-driven - he is fourth among QBs in expected PPG this season. It would be an understatement to say that Sean Payton knows how to position a (relatively) short white guy for success at the QB position, so this is probably not a fluke either.
His arm is impressive, but so are his legs - he has the fourth most rushing yards among all QBs (a bit lower on a per-game basis considering Hurts had his bye + Fields and Richardson only played six games, but still) and is tied with Daniels for the third-most rushing TDs among QBs (of course Jalen “grab my ass bro” Hurts is number 1).
Nix also has the fifth-easiest QB schedule over the rest of the season; if your league’s playoffs start Week 14, he does have a bye (as do five other teams - playoffs shouldn’t start then…), but he is poised to come out ripping in the playoffs against IND (10th best matchup for QBs), LAC (7th worst - not that great, actually, but he did just hang 20+ on them in Week 6) and CIN (4th best).
The best part, though, is that you can move down to Bo Nix and pick up another piece along the way; better still, if he is available as an FA in your league, you can pick him up and trade your starting QB away outright. I plan to take this approach in one league where I am desperate for WRs (note to self: never start RB-RB-RB in a league that has three WR slots) and have Lamar as my starter. It seems like a big downgrade on paper, but if Nix keeps playing like he has, I would rather have Nix and Tyreek in my starting lineup than Lamar and either of Worthy or Jeudy.
The Fun Stuff:
NFL teams go through a combined 80,000 Uncrustables every season. The Denver Broncos lead the league and it’s not close. There is actually a decent correlation between uncrustables consumed and defense.
Sometimes players purposefully line up their jerseys just right. Sometimes, it’s a happy accident the way it works out.
Lore-accurate Justin Herbert.
Pickens from the top rope.
Please enjoy this footage of Xavier Legette as he pronounces the word “asparagus.”
“Dalvin’s getting ready for this one…I guess.”
LASIK.com throwing shade at the NFL refs wasn’t on our 2024 season bingo card.
Josh Allen is inventing new ways to get 1st downs.
Logan Cooke with the punt of the year.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a real romantic guy!
Bijan with a sassy ass touchdown.
Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson during the Hail Mary.
Jayden Daniels trains in virtual reality so that everything seems slower on the field. Pretty cool.
“We grind, we scrap. We fight, no cap. We walk in your trap, take over your trap." - Kirko Chains is back.
“Christian, please get back on the field! My fantasy team needs you!”
Keon Coleman with a contender for WR block of the year.
Jordan Mason:
• RB3- National Wiener Schnitzel Day
• RB8- National Double Cheeseburger Day
• RB4- National Biscotti Day
• RB25- American Business Women Day
• RB32- Transfer Money to your Daughter Day
• RB28- National Handbag Day
• RB30- International Female Chef Day
Al Michaels with a legendary stat line.
Massacre of the Innocents, by Peter Paul Rubens, 1611-12.
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