Next Year, Just Draft Ja’Marr Chase
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You made the playoffs in at least one of your fantasy leagues - congratulations! - and are looking for insights to get you to the promised land.
You didn’t make the playoffs, but clicked this email anyway because you’re a creature of habit + currently are killing time at work.
You are a fantasy genius and don’t need our help whatsoever, but really enjoy our Fun Stuff section. This week’s a great one!
The headline grabbed your attention; if this is you, you’re in for a treat, as we have six Ja’Marr Chase tweets in a row.
No matter why you’re here, we appreciate you; as the nights get shorter and teams get eliminated, our readership tends to decline, but you’re still rocking with us and we love you for it. As we’ve done in the past, we’ll wrap up with the Week 17 edition, but make sure to check out (and subscribe to!) our premium Discord for riveting discussion, round-the-clock news all offseason long, and smart dynasty moves to make while your league mates have their guards down.
Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
Jordan Addison over the last 4 weeks:
• Target Share: Jordan Addison: 29%
• First-Read Target Share (per FantasyPtsData): Addison: 36%
Highest big-time throw rate this season (PFF):
1. Anthony Richardson (7.4%)
Ja'Marr Chase's Triple Crown pursuit:
• Leads by 6 receptions
• Leads by 149 yards
• Leads by 6 TDs
Only Ja'Marr Chase (15) has more end zone targets than Demarcus Robinson (12) this season.
These are Ja’Marr Chase’s stats this year if you just isolated his four biggest games:
• 41 catches
• 752 yards
• 9 touchdowns
With 14 catches, 177 yards, and 2 scores, Ja'Marr Chase is the first receiver with a 10+, 175+, 2+ game since Ja'Marr Chase did it in Week 10 against the Ravens, who was the first receiver to do it since Ja'Marr Chase did it in Week 5 against the Ravens.
Ja’Marr Chase, who is only 24 years old, just had his fifth career game with at least 10 catches, 175 yards and two touchdowns. No one else has more such games in their entire NFL career.
Ja'Marr Chase is up to 317.4 fantasy points this season. Only Lamar Jackson (321.4) has more. No other wide receiver has more than 235.2.
First-read target shares (per FantasyPtsData) in Week 14:
• Tyreek Hill: 34%
• Jaylen Waddle: 34%
• De'Von Achane: 16%
• Jonnu Smith: 9%
De’Von Achane is the only player in the NFL with 200+ combined carries and targets who has not fumbled or dropped a ball this season.
Yards per route vs. zone coverage:
1. Nico Collins (4.01)
2. Puka Nacua (3.20)
3. Ja'Marr Chase (2.99)
4. Jauan Jennings (2.84)
In the 6 games he's played without Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings has averaged 22.25 PPR points per game.
Most completions since Week 8 (QB/WR Duos):
• Nix & Sutton: 42
• Stafford & Kupp: 40
• Burrow & Chase: 40
• Stafford & Nacua: 38
In games where Puka Nacua plays more than half of the offensive snaps, he’s averaging 23.7 PPG. No Second Year Wide Receiver has ever posted that high.
Most receiving yards in first 25 career games:
• Odell Beckham, Jr.: 2,625
• Puka Nacua: 2,194
• Justin Jefferson: 2,175
• Ja’Marr Chase: 2,157
Amari Cooper targets with the Bills:
• Weeks 7-13: 13
• Week 14: 14
Most passing TD, last two years:
• Jared Goff 55
• Baker Mayfield 55
• Lamar Jackson 53
• Jordan Love 53
• Josh Allen 49
New York Jets rookie RBs in Week 14:
Snap rate
• 56% - Braelon Allen
• 52% - Isaiah Davis
Rush attempts
• 11 - Allen
• 10 - Davis
Routes run
• 21 - Allen
• 19 - Davis
Las Vegas Raiders RB Sincere McCormick in Week 14:
• 60% snap rate
• 15 of 16 RB rush attempts
• 78 rushing yards, 60 gained after initial contact
Brian Thomas Jr. with his 7th game of 76+ yards despite playing on a 3-10 team.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba now has 65+ receiving yards in six consecutive games. He never surpassed 63 yards in a game as a rookie.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the WR5 overall in fantasy football this season.
Rams vs. Bills is the first game in NFL history to have over 850 combined yards with 0 turnovers and 0 sacks. Flawless offense.
Kendre Miller has 84 rushing yards this year.
• 79 of them have come after contact.
• Averaging 4.00+ YAC/attempt.
Tyrone Tracy in Week 14:
• 83% snap rate (career-high)
• 89% RB rush share (career-high)
• 73% route rate (career-high)
• 21% target share (career-high)
Top-three in first downs per route run:
• 0.17 — A.J. Brown
• 0.16 — Nico Collins
• 0.15 — Jonnu Smith
Last time A.J. Brown complained about his usage, he had six receptions for 153 yards and three TDs in his next game (ironically also against Pittsburgh).
Jayden Daniels EPA this year: 109.0
Bo Nix: 9.67
There had been just 15 games of 34.58 or more fantasy points all season prior to this week. This week’s best players:
• Josh Allen: 51.88
• Puka Nacua: 41.8
• Jordan Addison: 39.3
• Zach Charbonnet: 38.3
• Sam Darnold: 34.58
Josh Allen's 51.88 fantasy points in Week 14 are the most by a quarterback in a single game since at least 1950.
This season, Sam Darnold has:
• More Pass Yds (3,299) than Lamar Jackson (3,290)
• More Pass TDs (28) than Josh Allen (23)
• Fewer INTs (10) than Patrick Mahomes (11)
Cold Water:
The top 10 starting QBs in missed yardage:
1. CJ Stroud (718)
2. Patrick Mahomes (562)
3. Caleb Williams (545)
Anthony Richardson leads the league in % of total yards dropped. In second is Bryce Young.
Highest turnover-worthy play rate this season:
1. Anthony Richardson (4.7%)
Chiefs defense since Week 8:
• 32nd in pressure rate
• 29th in EPA per drop back
• 22nd in YPA allowed
An NFL QB has thrown 33 TD passes through 13 games in a season 26 times. Joe Burrow is one of three below nine wins, and the only one below six.
Deebo Samuel Yards Per Carry:
• 2021: 5.8
• 2022: 4.8
• 2023: 5.6
• 2024: 2.9
De’Von Achane Yards Per Carry:
• 2023: 7.8
• 2024: 3.9
Last year, De’Von Achane ranked first in rushing yards over expected per attempt for running backs with over 100 rushes. This year, Achane ranks last in this same category.
Kirk Cousins has thrown 0 TDs and 8 INTs during his last four games.
A.J. Brown hasn’t had double-digit targets in a game since Week 1.
Saquon Barkley has been tackled at the 1-yard line a league-high 11 times. 10 of those became a Jalen Hurts Rush TD, 0 became a Barkley one.
It has been over 6 quarters since Kyle Pitts’ last reception.
Trey McBride is now up to 106 targets without a receiving touchdown this season. NFL record for targets without a single receiving TD: 147 by Diontae Johnson in 2022.
Jonnu Smith caught 3 passes for 44 yards and a TD in overtime after zero catches in regulation.
Number of receivers with 1,000+ receiving yards through 13 weeks
• 2024: 2
• 2023: 9
• 2022: 4
• 2021: 4
• 2020: 6
Darnell Mooney has more receiving yards than Drake London this season.
Jordan Love has -27.6 EPA on dropbacks when blitzed this season. The only QB with fewer EPA is Deshaun Watson (-39.3).
Waiver Weapons - Week Fifteen:
Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Last week was the toughest waiver weapons week in history. With all of the byes and terrible matchups, it’s a miracle we were able to go 50/50. Grant Calcaterra was an incredible deep pull, and he may even be a playoff hero with Goedert likely to miss significant time. Now that the playoffs are here, the stakes have never been higher. Let’s get some waiver weapon wins for all of you.
Camaron’s Pick: Daniel Bellinger, TE, NYG (3% rostered on Sleeper) - There’s something fun about picking tight ends as waiver weapons. Bellinger has mostly been useless this season for fantasy. Yet, 7 of his 10 total targets on the season came last week against the Saints. The Giants want to use the tight end as the easy button in their offense, and with Theo Johnson out, Bellinger looks ready to step up.
Chris’ Pick: Sincere McCormick, RB, LV (38% rostered on Sleeper) - After averaging over five yards per carry for the last three weeks, Antonio Pierce has made it official: Sincere McCormick is the new RB1 in Las Vegas. Last year down the stretch, many of us rode Zamir White’s volume all the way to a championship, and I Sincerely (see what I did there?) believe McCormick could turn out the same way. The only things giving me pause are the caliber of this Raiders offense, who will probably be playing from behind a lot (not that they were playing lights out last season), and his matchup vs. Atlanta in Week 15; on the other side of that, though, he draws the Jags and Saints - two favorable tilts for RBs. If Mattison is healthy enough to play and you’re feeling cautious, you might want to hold him out, as we haven’t yet seen how they will split the backfield work; that said, he did get 15 of the Raiders’ 16 RB carries last week.
The Fun Stuff:
Despite missing Weeks 3-7, Cooper Kupp has traveled 2,366 yards in pre-snap motion this season. That’s over 300 more than any other receiver.
Considering this could happen, would you let your kids play football?
This fan’s Pro Bowl vote is one for the ages.
Xavier Legette on the StBrownPodcast talking about eating raccoon.
Community notes on Twitter: 1, Deebo Samuel: 0.
Tyreek Hill 2024 Rec TDs: 4, Tyreek Hill 2024 Babies: 5.
Quinyon Mitchell showed up in a “QUINYONAMO BAY” sweatshirt.
The Lions settle an all-time debate (although most of them are wrong, and the correct answer is drums).
Cam Bynum and Josh Metellus with the White Chicks dance. Now with bonus behind the scenes content.
Dave Canales has a mountain landscape doodled on his call sheet.
The hand up for eternity. The fall. I'm dying.
Rams DT Kobie Turner killed it on The Masked Singer.
Jets fans are identifying with Shailene Woodley.
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