“Name something you trust more than Kyle Shanahan. I'll start: Gas station sushi.”
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Welcome back!
We’ve entered what I consider to be the prime trading window for the season. Fantasy managers get impatient quick, and while they usually won’t care if their stud player has a bad week 1, you can be sure that many will start to feel skittish if those players have had back-to-back poor showings in the first two weeks. On the other hand, this may be the last chance to grab a player that appears to be on an upward trajectory before they solidify their value. Sometimes buying high is worth it before it’s too late. Hopefully this week’s list helps you spot some potential targets. Good luck!
-Will
Analysis & Hype:
“Rondale Moore led the team in targets despite only playing 46% of the snaps. Translation: every time Rondale is on the field, Kliff is dialing up plays that utilize him.” Additional note: Rondale Moore now leads the entire team in targets and receptions through the first two weeks, not just in week 2.
Most receiving yards all-time through a 21 year old WRs first two career games:
T1. Stefon Diggs - 216
T1. Desean Jackson - 216
3. Randy Moss - 184
4. Deandre Hopkins - 183
5. Rondale Moore - 182
Rondale Moore Week 1 ---> Week 2
Snap rate:
29% ---> 46%
Route rate:
38% ---> 57%
Target share:
15.6% ---> 22.2%
“Rondale Moore’s deep receiving TD stands out in the box score, but these two plays were even more impressive imo. His YAC ability.” (Video)
Rondale Moore is averaging 14.3 yards AFTER catch per reception this season 4.8 yards more than any other NFL player
Kyler Murray said he sent a video of Rondale Moore in 1-on-1 situations to GM Steve Keim around NFL Draft time.
“Through 2 weeks, WRs DOMINATING RBs with weekly scoring...
Week 1: 16 WRs, 7 RBs with 20+ fantasy points (PPR)
Week 2: 15 WRs, 5 RBs with 20+ points
Pass-heavy NFL and more teams switching from a bell cow to a committee approach Something to keep monitoring, it caught my eye”
Highest graded offensive rookie per PFF in Week 2 (min. 25 snaps):
1. DEN RB Javonte Williams - 81.9
2. WTF OT Samuel Cosmi - 77.1
3. KC IOL Trey Smith - 73.1
4. AZ WR Rondale Moore - 71.5
5. PIT TE Pat Freiermuth - 71.4
“Don’t forget, [Clyde Edwards-Helaire] suffered a Grade 1 high-ankle sprain in Week 2 of preseason (Aug. 20th) These can be played on but full recovery take 3-5 weeks if no setbacks occur. This week will be 5 weeks.”
“Just two games in...but Ty'Son Williams is second in the NFL in YPC at 6.5. ...Nick Chubb is #1 btw...because of course.”
“Watching the Ravens-Chiefs game back right now....all I can think about is how good this Chiefs running game would be if they drafted Ty'Son Williams instead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire If you re-watch the All-22 version, it's honestly not even close. And I'm a CEH truther” This could also be filed under Cold Water for CEH.
Damien Harris has 12 forced missed tackles on runs this season. 3rd most among all RBs.
These Derrick Henry stats are bonkers:
Most rushing yards this season:
1. Derrick Henry - 240
2. Derrick Henry after contact - 201
3. Joe Mixon - 196
4 .Lamar Jackson - 193
Games with 180+ rush yards and multiple rushing TDs in the last 4 seasons (including playoffs):
7 — Derrick Henry
6
5
4
3
2
1 — Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, Raheem Mostert, Jonathan Taylor
“At 3.3, Jonathan Taylor has the highest expected rush/rec TD total in the NFL. He also leads the league in carries inside the 5 yard line (6). He has yet to find the endzone. That will change soon. #RegressionAlert”
Jonathan Taylor leads the league with 12 red zone carries. He has 0 TDs.
“The Matthew Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp connection has been on fire to start the season. Stafford is 16-for-21 for 271 yards and 3 TD when targeting Kupp in just two games. Kupp had just 3 receiving TD in all of 2020.”
Since 2019, RB leaders in Yards After Contact per Rush:
1) D. Henry
2) T. Pollard
3) N. Chubb
20) Zeke (of 46)
Missed Tackles Forced per Rush:
1) N. Chubb
2) T. Pollard
32) Zeke (of 46)
Yards After Catch per Reception:
1) D. Cook
2) A. Ekeler
3) T. Pollard
29) Zeke (of 44)
Ezekiel Elliot vs. Tony Pollard 2021:
Touches:
Ezekiel Elliott - 18
Tony Pollard - 16
10+ yard plays:
Ezekiel Elliott - 2
Tony Pollard - 5
Carries of 1 yard or fewer:
Ezekiel Elliott - 6
Tony Pollard - 0
Tee Higgins is building on his excellent rookie season:
Target share:
19.1% in 2020 ==> 27.3% in 2021
Air yard share:
26.9% ==> 31.2%
Targets per route run:
21.8% ==> 26.3%
Yards per route run:
1.83 ==> 2.07
Chart visualizing team pass rate above/below expected.
Rookie WR/TE Utilization Heat Score. (Chart)
D'Andre Swift is tied for 1st in missed tackles forced on receptions with 7.
“After Monday's game, Dan Campbell mentioned that they may have to draw up more plays for [D’Andre] Swift in the receiving game.”
“Your BUY HIGH for this week at RB: D'Andre Swift. Swift has an incredibly high floor at RB & is currently leading all RBs in targets Green Bay runs plays at a snail's pace, and Swift still had 12 touches (4 tgts) and 11.8 Week 2 fantasy points even without a TD… has week-winning upside as well, and should be valued as a top-10 RB rest of season With how shallow RB is this year, the top 10-15 RBs are even more valuable right now due to scarcity, so go out and trade for him while you can after he put "only" 11.8 fantasy points in Week 2”
KJ Osborn through two weeks as MIN has shifted to more 3-WR sets sans Irv Smith: * 103-of-144 snaps (71%) * 78 routes on 87 Kirk Cousins dropbacks (89.6%) * 15 targets for an 18.2% share * 12-167-1 line
There are only two WRs who meet the following criteria after two games:
50+% air yard share
30+% target share
10+ average depth of target
Tyler Lockett and Brandin Cooks.
Brandin Cooks since Will Fuller was suspended/signed with Miami:
5-65-0
6-59-0
7-141-1
11-166-2
5-132-0
9-78-1
“Tyler Lockett: 95.8 PFF Grade vs single coverage this season 1st in the NFL”
“The NFL's receiving yards leader through games is Tyler Lockett (278), followed closely by Cooper Kupp (271). Just kidding it's actually Deebo Samuel, with 282 yards.”
Most receiving TDs among all the WRs selected in the 2019 draft:
1. A.J. Brown: 20
2. DK Metcalf: 18
3. Hollywood Brown: 17
Brown has scored 8 TDs in his last 8 regular-season games.
“No one has attempted more throws over 20 yards this season than gunslinger Teddy Bridgewater”
WR Leaders in Target Share:
1. Cooper Kupp (36%)
1. Deebo Samuel (36%)
3. Brandin Cooks (34%)
4. Diontae Johnson (31%)
5. DK Metcalf (30%)
5. Tyler Lockett (30%)
7. Marquise Brown (29%)
8. Tyreek Hill (28%)
9. CeeDee Lamb (28%)
10. Sterling Shepard (28%)
TE Leaders in Target Share:
1. Waller (27%)
2. Kelce (22%)
3. Hock (19%)**
4. Fant (19%)
5. Hooper (16%)
5. Njoku (16%)
7. Gronk (16%)
8. Doyle (16%)
9. Kittle (16%)
9. Andrews (16%)
WR Leaders in Yards Per Route Run:
1. Deebo Samuel (5.42)
2. Rondale Moore (4.82)
3. Cooper Kupp (4.59)
4. Tyler Lockett (4.48)
5. Quez Watkins (4.12)
6. Christian McCaffrey (3.35)
7. Brandin Cooks (3.23)
8. Marquise Brown (3.19)
9. David Njoku (3.13)
This chart visualizes the combined target share of each team's top three targeted players.
“One of my favorite developments this year is the Mike Williams breakout.
Here's where he ranks amongst all WRs through two weeks:
-T2nd in receptions
-3rd in targets
-6th in PPR points
If the volume keeps coming, he's going to smash.”
“Heard some people say they thought Mike Williams was a fluke last week. So not the case. Being used all over the field and Herbert is looking for him early and often. Big year here and more coming.”
Sometimes it’s worth paying attention to coachspeak and determining which headlines seem reasonable. From earlier this offseason: Chargers OC Joe Lombardi — former Saints assistant — says Mike Williams will play X receiver position manned by Michael Thomas in New Orleans. “I’d bet on nice numbers coming from him on the stat sheet, that’s for sure.”
“Maybe too early to say if Sam Darnold is #good now that he's away from Jets and in Carolina. But can always say that it's impossible to succeed with the NFL's worst head coach/play-caller, bottom-5 OL, bottom-5 weaponry, bottom-5 front office.”
“Through two weeks Cordarrelle Patterson, Tony Pollard, and James White are all top 10 RBs in PPR scoring. This is why I love fantasy football.”
“Not Calvin Ridley. Not Kyle Pitts. Not Matt Ryan. Not Mike Davis. It’s Cordarrelle Patterson that leads the Falcons in fantasy points through two games.”
“If you’re looking for a WR1 in Detroit, his name is Quintez Cephus. Back-to-back weeks with 6+ targets and a touchdown. He’s obviously not going to be Goff’s number one target (that’s Hockenson), but he’s worth an add if he’s available in your league.”
“Just like everyone had it figured for two weeks through the season — WR PPR Ranks”
1. Cooper Kupp
2. Tyler Lockett
3. Deebo Samuel
4. Adam Thielen
5. Amari Cooper
6. Mike Williams
7. Tyreek Hill
8. Marquise Brown
9. Sterling Shepard
10. DeAndre Hopkins
Air yards per game through Week 2:
1. Raiders (429)
2. Jaguars (409)
3. Bills (401)
4. Bucs (397)
---
28. Falcons (183)
29. Patriots (180)
30. Bears (172)
31. Saints (156)
32. 49ers (142)
“They're playing different sports.”
“I believe Tom Brady is now 14 TD passes away from throwing more TDs in his 40s than his 20s. Simply absurd.”
Jalen Hurts is the only QB in NFL history to have 1,000+ pass yards and 300+ rush yards in his 1st 5 career starts.
“Terry McLaurin is QB proof which is one of the biggest compliments you could give a WR.”
In Diontae Johnson's last 16 games where he played a full game, he has 183 targets.
Eagles CB Darius Slay says Deebo Samuel is like Anquan Boldin, only faster.
Threads from /r/fantasyfootball:
1. “With apologies to Mr. Gase: An analysis of how much head coaches affect fantasy points”
2. “Best underperforming running backs to get at a discount now”
Cold Water:
51 RBs have 10+ carries through 2 weeks.
Among them, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ranks:
* 51st in @PFF rushing grade
* 49th in Elusive Rating
* 50th in yards after contact per attempt
The highest off target throw rate in the NFL through two weeks of play since 2009:
1. Trevor Lawrence - 35%
2. Seneca Wallace - 34.5%
3. Tim Tebow - 34.4%
There have been 266 run plays inside the opponent's 20 yard line across the league this season. 12 teams have at least 10. The Jaguars are the only team with zero.
Adam Trautman wasn't targeted in Week 2.
“Bryan Edwards target share - Week 2
Total pass attempts: 37
Bryan Edwards targets: 3
3/37 = 8% target share.
That is very not good.”
“Don't let the 3 rushing touchdowns fool you... Nick Chubb only has 26 carries (13 per game) on the season He probably won't continue to score a TD every 9th carry.”
“If you are reading this post, you have more career receiving yards (0) than Kadarius Toney through 2 games (-2)”
The Fun Stuff:
“Going to spend the day watching a 12 year old roast the Jets on TikTok”
“I’ve been diagnosed w CEH. It’s where I have the RB1 on the top scoring offense in the NFL but don’t get any points. Side effects include losing my fucking shit.”
“Name something you trust more than Kyle Shanahan. I'll start: Gas station sushi.”
Week 2's perfect lineup = 257.8 pts
“Kenny Golladay was merely doing what we've dreamt of for years -- teeing off on Jason Garrett.”
Jamaal Williams — One of the funniest dudes in the NFL.
“It took 8 years, but I was right about Cordarrelle Patterson.”
Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch.
Gronk says that fellow Bucs TE Cam Brate recently asked him: “Do you ever watch film?” Gronk: “No I don’t. I just run by guys. If I’m feeling good, I’m feeling good.”
Ted Lasso speaking to everyone who’ve found that league they truly enjoy: “Winning is fun, but if you find a family along the way, you can’t lose.”
The Ravens feeling pure Joy.
Bill Belichick after Zach Wilson threw 4 INTs
“Kyler Murray
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Tom Brady
The league all of a sudden full of great young QBs that are going to dominate for the next decade.”
Courtland Sutton letting us all believe the limp talk then going 9-159.
"LAMAR! Do you want to go for this?"
In case you missed this Marshawn Lynch — I mean Damien Harris TD.
Who’s #44 on the 49ers? You kiddin’ me?
Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson beat himself in fantasy football. (video)
“Nothing good has ever come from hitting "Next 25" on the fantasy football add/drop page”
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