Minshew Misadventure
Welcome back!
Week 7 and that means the full brunt of bye week hell is upon us. Here’s to all of you completely unfazed by this because of 0-6 apathetic bliss.
It’s too early for victory lapping, but if you’re a member of our Patreon Discord you can see all of the takes we nailed with our draft guide this year. You can also get in on the FF conversation that happens there daily.
Now let’s get to the headlins.
Analysis & Hype:
Every Wide Receiver Averaging 22+ PPG is AT LEAST 29 Years Old:
• Tyreek Hill
• Keenan Allen
• Cooper Kupp
• Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill sits 186 yards shy of 1000 for the season...it's week 6.
Travis Kelce with 2.40 yards per route run at 34 years old. The second best of his career. The best was 2.50 yards per route run in 2020, when he had 1416 yards the best tight end season of all time.
Tua Tagovailoa is on pace for 5,315 passing yards and 40 passing TDs. He is currently:
• 1st in YPA
• 1st in passer rating
• 2nd in CPOE on deep throws
• 1st in highly accurate throw rate
Since returning from injury two weeks ago, Jaylen Waddle has commanded more than 30% of the targets and is the WR14 in PPG.
Michael Mayer for the Raiders in Week 6:
• 67% route participation
• 19% target share
• 27% targets per route
• 12.5 fantasy points
Over the last two games: Kupp + Nacua = 70% of Rams targets.
Puka Nacua in 2 games with Cooper Kupp:
• 98% of the snaps
• Earning 29% of the targets
• Running 100% of the routes
Jake Ferguson’s (Before MNF) per-route data through two seasons (212 routes):
• 24% target per route run rate
• 1.65 yards per route run
Dalton Schultz’s best rates as a Cowboy:
• 21.3% (2022)
• 1.48 (2021)
Broncos Thursday Night:
• Snaps: Jaleel McLaughlin 21, Javonte Williams 18, Samaje Perine 9
• Routes: McLaughlin 11, Javonte 5, Perine 5
• Opportunities: Javonte 10, McLaughlin 9, Perine 2
D.J. Moore's first-read target share by week:
• Week 1 - 13%
• Week 2 - 30%
• Week 3 - 38%
• Week 4 - 50%
• Week 5 - 50%
Tyson Bagent targeted D.J. Moore on 6 of his 14 pass attempts and didn't target Cole Kmet once.
With both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson sidelined, here's a look at the Bears RBBC:
• D'Onta Foreman: 63% snaps, 16 touches, 67 yards, 13 routes
• Darrynton Evans: 36% snaps, 10 touches, 34 yards, 8 routes
Atlanta has had more pass attempts than rush attempts in each of their last four games. They had more pass attempts than rush attempts just three times throughout the entire 2022 season.
Isiah Pacheco has the 6th best EPA/rush and 9th best situation adjusted yards per carry this season.
Isiah Pacheco, Weeks 1-3:
• 63.2% running back rush share per game
• 8.0% target share per game
• 11.1 PPR points per game
Isiah Pacheco, Weeks 4-6:
• 81.9% running back rush share per game
• 9.4% target share per game
• 18.0 PPR points per game
TDs through week 6:
• 11: Raheem Mostert🐬
• 10: Bengals, Saints, Falcons, Raiders
Three WRs have been targeted at a higher rate per route run than Rashee Rice this year:
• Tyreek Hill
• Cooper Kupp
• Brandon Aiyuk
Rice now plays the Chargers this week, who have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs
Zack Moss out-snapped Jonathan Taylor 37 to 32 this week. Last week, it was 49 to 10 in favor of Moss.
Cole Kmet:
• 18.2% Target Share
• 1.52 YPRR / 9.6 YPR
• 72.5 PFF Receiving Grade
• 11.2 PPG
C.J. Stroud this season (NFL Rank):
• 1,660 pass yards (4th)
• 7.8 yards per attempt (4th)
• 9-1 pass TD-INT ratio (2nd)
• 25 completions of 20+ yds (T-2nd)
• 3 giveaways (T-4th fewest)
The Browns defense is allowing 200 yards per game. The next closest team is 260.
The Steelers have the best passing performance against the Browns so far this season, and Kenny Pickett is the only QB to throw for 200 yards against them.
Last year, Alvin Kamara had 4 RB1 games in 15 games played. This year, he already has three RB1 games in his three games played.
Kyren Williams has four RB1 games through six weeks this year. Cam Akers had four RB1 games in three years with the Rams.
Since Week 2's sideline confrontation between AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts, Brown is fantasy's WR4 with 24.9 PPR points per game.
Sam LaPorta Rank amongst EVERY Rookie Tight Since 2006:
• 20.7% Target Share - 𝟭𝘀𝘁
• 1.60 YPTPA - 𝟮𝗻𝗱
• 77.8% Route Particpation - 𝟰𝘁𝗵
Best and worst QBs at allowing pressures to be converted into sacks:
• Patrick Mahomes 7% pressures turned into sacks
• Baker Mayfield 8%
• Josh Allen 12%
• Tua Tagovailoa 13%
• Justin Herbert 14%
[natural segue into cold water section…]
• Desmond Ridder 24%
• Deshaun Watson 25%
• Ryan Tannehill 27%
• Daniel Jones 31%
• Sam Howell 34%
Cold Water:
Devon Witherspoon vs Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Adam Thielen: 3 catches, 26 yards allowed. Seahawks play the Cardinals this week.
The Giants are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to have more rushing yards, more passing yards, fewer INT thrown, fewer fumbles lost & fewer missed FG than their opponent but still lose. Teams had been 134-0 in the Super Bowl era when doing all that in a game (reg+post).
Brian Robinson ran the ball 10 times for 31 yards today. He's failed to hit 50 rushing yards in three straight games, when he was at 59, 87, and 70 rushing yards across his first three games of the season.
James Cook has just 6 carries inside the 10 this year, 3 less than Latavius Murray.
Denver Broncos WR’s heading into week 6:
• Marvin Mims Jr. (5 games): 12 targets, 10 receptions, 246 yards, 1 TD
• Courtland Sutton (5 games): 31 targets , 21 receptions , 229 yards, 3 TD’s
• Jerry Jeudy (4 games): 24 targets, 17 receptions , 208 yards, 0 TD’s
Chiefs Pass Attack on TNF: 10 different players caught a pass. Rashee Rice tied for 5th in targets.
Patrick Mahomes has scored fewer than 20 standard fantasy points in three consecutive games. He's now failed to hit 20 points in 66.6% of his games this year. That rate was 41.1% last year.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Joe Mixon has played 20 games. He's touched the ball 382 times. He's had 40 carries from inside the 10-yard line, 2nd-most in NFL. Mixon has scored more than 18 half-PPR fantasy points just once. That was the 53-point game against Panthers.
Cincinnati wide receiver snap shares this week:
• Ja'Marr Chase: 92.5%
• Tyler Boyd: 88.7%
• Tee Higgins: 52.8%
Bijan Robinson saw a sub-50% running back rush share for a second straight week in Week 6.
Quentin Johnston on Monday night against the Cowboys:
• 2 targets
• 0 receptions
• 0.9 average yards of separation
Since the start of the 2022 season, DeVonta Smith ranks:
• 32nd in target per route run rate
• 32nd in yards per route run
Some WRs who rank ahead of DeVonta in both metrics during that time:
• Nico Collins
• Jakobi Meyers
• Tyler Lockett
• Mike Evans
• Drake London
• Chris Godwin
Devonta Smith has failed to score double-digit PPR points in three of his last four after scoring 17.7 and 23.1 in Weeks 1 and 2.
Jahan Dotson ran the second-most routes for Washington on Sunday and had just one fewer route run than Terry McLaurin. He saw one target and failed to catch it. He's yet to finish as a top-24 PPR wide receiver in weekly scoring this season.
The Fun Stuff:
How to avoid a blindside block penalty.
The Mike McDaniel mic’d up was gold.
Justin Pugh, straight off the couch.
Austin Ekeler started the Dallas defense last week. Against himself?!
The Saints had two QB1s in Week 6.
What if I told you the best tackle of the week took place on a baseball field?
Waiver Weapons - Week Seven:
If you thought you needed a waiver weapon last week, this week is going to be a rough one. The Byepocalypse has arrived with 6 teams on bye there’s going to be a lot of people scrounging for startable players. And with Lawrence, Fields, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, and Jimmy G all injured, the pickings are going to be that much harder. But don’t worry, the team that brought you Ridder (QB6) and Foreman (RB29) from last week is here to help your team out.
Camaron’s pick: Kenny Pickett, QB, PIT (22% rostered on Sleeper) - Fellow Anthony Richardson support group members, make sure to welcome the new comers to the group. Fields Fans, Lawrence Loyalists, and Stroud Supporters. But tell those Deshaun Watson Wastefuls to get lost. This week, we’re hitting the QB quiver (last alliteration I promise) again with Kenny Pickett from the Steelers. The offense for the Steelers has been bad this year, despite that Kenny Pickett’s fantasy points have been pretty average. He put up 18.5 points in their game against the Raiders which has been their only opponent inside the top half of fantasy QB matchups. And they get the Rams who are the 11th best matchup this week, while also coming off of a bye, and getting Diontae Johnson back. This is by no means a great option, however if your teams are looking like mine, you’ll be needing anything you can get.
Chris’ pick: Devin Singletary, RB, HOU (22% rostered on Sleeper) - Houston is on a bye in Week 7 (#byepocalypse), so this might not be the type of information you’re looking for here if you’re in a pinch, but we did tell you from the start that this section wasn’t just about one-week stands; for the right lady player, we’re willing to make a meaningful commitment. Singletary out-snapped Pierce 31 to 21 in Week 6, racking up 12 carries and two targets along the way (to Pierce’s 13 and zero, respectively). He managed to be efficient with his carries to the tune of 4.83 YPC (Pierce had 2.62) against New Orleans, the second-worst matchup for RBs; the stars all look to be aligned for a post-bye breakout, too, as Houston’s upcoming schedule is studded with green RB matchups (Carolina, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Denver between now and the fantasy playoffs). Plan ahead, grab him before he blows up against the Panthers, and thank me later.
Will’s pick: K.J. Osborn, WR, MIN (13% rostered on Sleeper) - I’m going for a deep league waiver pickup here. If you’re in 10 to 12 team leagues, you can probably find better options, but for 14 and 16 team leagues, this might be a great option in week 7. With Justin Jefferson out, Osborn is my favorite target as the Viking’s WR2, and is available in most leagues.