Michael Pittman Jr. Has Arrived
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Welcome back!
There was quite the list of busts last week. But that doesn’t mean there weren’t a lot of great headlines and analysis out there to be found.
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Now let’s get to it!
-Will
Analysis & Hype:
Michael Pittman Jr. is currently on pace for 95/1250/9. Only 4 other sophomore WRs have ever hit those 3 thresholds — Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green, and Odell Beckham Jr. Elite company if he keeps it up.
Michael Pittman Jr. had the most air yards in Week 8 with 197.
“Michael Pittman makes an amazing contested catch every single week. 57.1% contested catch rate on deep targets this year. Absolute star.”
Top three 2nd year WRs in receiving yards:
1. CeeDee Lamb - 609
2. Michael Pittman Jr - 594
3. Justin Jefferson - 563
“Over the last seven quarters with Mike White under center, [Michael] Carter has assembled a 17/162/0 receiving line on 22 targets. Those numbers are nothing short of CMC numbers.”
Players with 30+ forced missed tackles this season (PFF):
Najee Harris (38)
Derrick Henry (36)
Javonte Williams (33)
Nick Chubb (30)
Michael Carter (30)
Mike White is the first QB to have 400 Pass Yards and 3 Pass TD in their first career start since 1950.
“Ravens quietly ABOVE expectation in pass rate. Way different than previous years. Lamar Jackson currently 10th in PFF's throwing grades. Has a path to go absolutely nuclear rest of way.”
Since Week 5, Dan Arnold ranks at TE:
7th in target share (18.5%)
9th in rec yards share (19.2%)
14th in air yards share (14.9%)
9th in PPR FP/G (10.6)
Dan Arnold's Week 8 usage:
* 72% snaps
* 74% routes
* 10 targets (18.5% share)
“That's TE1 usage.”
Highest percentage of TE routes run lined up in the slot or out wide (min 100 routes):
Mike Gesicki - 91.0%
Kyle Pitts - 81.7%
Dan Arnold - 80.5% 👀
Travis Kelce - 76.8%
Mike Gesicki is the #1 scoring TE over the last 3 weeks in half PPR with 41.8 points.
Robert Saleh smiles when asked if Mike White will start against the Colts: “Yeah, he’s starting Thursday.”
“We have a new NFL leader in expected touchdowns”:
Darrell Henderson 7.1
Aaron Jones 6.9
Derrick Henry 6.8
Cooper Kupp 6.6
Jonathan Taylor 6.6"
“Darrell Henderson is quietly averaging 17.5 PPG in PPR leagues”
“Jonathan Taylor says he hasn’t missed a practice in the NFL, college or high school.
Among his gifted size/speed, his durability at that position is so unique.”
Jonathan Taylor is the second-leading receiver on the Colts behind Michael Pittman Jr.
“Deebo Samuel has caught 15-of-18 targets with 15+ air yards. That is ridiculous.” He’s also produced a 156.3 passer rating on throws of 20+ yards which ranks 1st in the NFL.
Deebo Samuel is the only player with 3 games of 150+ receiving yards.
“WRs that have put up at least two seasons of ≥2.75 YPRR vs Man coverage within their first three seasons in the NFL (min 20 targets vs Man)--
Mike Evans
Odell Beckham
Michael Thomas (3)
AJ Brown* (3)
Deebo Samuel*
Justin Jefferson*
* Michael Thomas did it his first three seasons. AJ Brown will join him this year.
Deebo will be two seasons if he does it this year. Jefferson will be as well.”
Highest-graded rookie QBs through the first 8 weeks of a season since 2006:
1 Robert Griffin III, WAS (2012): 84.6
2 Mac Jones, NE (2021): 84.0
3 Carson Wentz, PHI (2016): 83.4
4 Baker Mayfield, CLE (2018): 76.9
5 Joe Burrow, CIN (2020): 76.6
I guess it should be said that this isn’t exactly a spectacular company, though 😬
Mike Evans now has 69 career TD catches. That's more than twice as many TD Receptions than any other receiver in Bucs history.
Matthew Stafford over the last four games: 1254 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs.
Matthew Stafford this season:
2,477 YDS (2nd in NFL)
22 TD (2nd)
118.0 RTG (1st)
QBs rating on throws past 1st read per PFF:
1) Tom Brady (94.7)
2) Jalen Hurts (94.5)
3) Matthew Stafford (92.1)
4) Josh Allen (90.8)
5) Derek Carr (87.7)
…
28) Zach Wilson (55.3)
29) Teddy Bridgewater (52.2)
30) Baker Mayfield (51.3)
31) Trevor Lawrence (46.0)
32) Patrick Mahomes (30.9)
Patrick Mahomes being dead last is proof we’re living in a simulation.
Cooper Kupp is the first player in the Super Bowl era with 900 Rec yards and 10 Rec TDs through the first eight games. He is on pace for: 133 Rec — 1,963 Yds — 21 TDs.
In his four starts last year, Taysom Hill was the QB3, QB12, QB6 and QB11
Great chart showing actual vs expected fantasy points per game for WRs.
Threads on /r/fantasyfootball:
- Reddit Adjusted Trade Values Week 9 – Apparently Gods have Metatarsals
-What facts about this fantasy football season sound like bullshit but are surprisingly true?
Some insight into how round 1 of dynasty drafts would go right now per DLF ADP:
1. Ja’Marr Chase
2. Jonathan Taylor
3. Justin Jefferson
4. D’Andre Swift
5. Najee Harris
6. CeeDee Lamb
7. Dalvin Cook
8. Christian McCaffrey
9. DK Metcalf
10. AJ Brown
11. Kyle Pitts
12. Tyreek Hill
Teams’ points per drive since 2020.
Cold Water:
49% of the snaps for Nick Chubb and 39% for D'Ernest Johnson. Browns are sticking with the RBBC even without Kareem Hunt.
Javonte Williams is second-worst in stuff rate (0 yards or less) with 13%. Before people jump on me for not including the positive parts from the link, it’s because I’ve included blurbs about Javonte Williams’ exceptional missed tackle rate multiple times in recent weeks. This is just noting a possible weakness.
Potential Trade Targets:
“Tee Higgins is averaging more expected PPR points per game than Ja'Marr Chase this season (PFF). Higgins is *the* buy-low receiver to go get in fantasy football land.”
Bengals WR target shares over the last 4 weeks:
Tee Higgins - 24.5%
Ja'Marr Chase - 24.5%
Tyler Boyd - 16.5%
Toughest Schedules to Date
QB
Dak Prescott (-2.2)
Derek Carr (-2.0)
RB
Chris Carson (-3.9)
Dalvin Cook (-2.3)
Nick Chubb (-2.3)
WR
Raiders WRs (-2.9)
Dallas WRs (-2.7)
Diontae Johnson (-2.6)
Deebo Samuel (-2.6)
Chiefs WRs (-2.4)
TE
Robert Tonyan (-2.9)
Darren Waller (-1.5)"
“The Ryan Tannehill-to-A.J. Brown connection is coming on strong of late.
In Weeks 1-5: 38.5% completion percentage, 32.5 yards per game, 5.0 yards per attempt, 1 TD.
In Weeks 6-8: 83.3% completion percentage, 126.3 yards per game, 12.6 yards per attempt, 2 TD.”
Chase Claypool had a career-high 97% snaps and got manufactured touches Week 8.
NFL “Easiest” remaining Strength of Schedule:
1. Tennessee (.397)
2. NY Jet (.408)
3. Houston (.426)
4. Philly (.439)
5. Tampa Bay (.448)
NFL “Toughest” remaining Strength of Schedule:
1. Kansas City (.622)
2. Cleveland (.588)
3. LA Rams (.567)
4. Minnesota (.566)
5. Carolina (.565)
Van Jefferson’s route/db in last three weeks: 88%, 88%, 89% | weeks 1-5 it was 69%
“Not that we love the Browns passing attack but here are Jarvis Landry's target shares when Odell Beckham Jr. hasn't played over the last two seasons:
2020 Regular Season: 42%, 29%, 11%, 41%, 32%, 18%, 28%, 20%
2020 Post Season: 25%, 31%
2021: 24% (Week 1)”
D.J. Moore over the last 4 weeks:
4th in expected fantasy points per game
44th in actual fantasy points per game
Chuba Hubbard has the 3rd most scrimmage yards (510) among rookies this season.
Top-5 TEs in Week 9 Target Share
1. Dallas Goedert 44%
2. T.J. Hockenson 32%
3. Cole Kmet 22%
4. Kyle Pitts 22%
5. Pat Freiermuth 20%
Brandon Aiyuk's Week 8 usage:
* 88% snap rate (season high)
* 97% route rate (season high)
* 25% target share (season high)
"[Brandon Aiyuk] played his butt off today. He was great."
Kyle Shanahan said Brandon Aiyuk had his best game of the season in Week 8.
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The Fun Stuff:
“This is why you check your kid’s Halloween candy.”
“You drafted a great team. It is not your fault.”
Big Ben got the last laugh.
“When they find out you're not actually vaccinated”
“Zach Wilson watching Mike White from the suite like:”
Mike White: NFL top 100 #1.
Mike White foretold all of this in 2013.
This clip on Kevin White warms the heart.
Jameis Winston: Still a National treasure with just 1 ACL.
Dan Orlovsky with that self-deprecating humor perfection.
“I love the NFL
I love the NFL Draft
I love start of Free Agency
I love training camp
I love NFL Games
(the trade deadline sucks)”
“kadarius toney went through the entire obj career arc in the span of 5 weeks”
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