Malik Nabers - Air Yards Monster

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

Three weeks in and Saquon Barkely and Alvin Kamara are the top 2 RBs, Malik Nabers and Rashee Rice are the top 2 WRs, Dallas Goedert and Brock Bowers are the top 2 TEs, and Jayden Daniels and Sam Darnold are both top 4 QBs. Just like we drew it up, guys.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Brian Robinson leads the NFL in yards after contact per rush in 2024. 183 of 206 rushing yards have been earned after initial contact with a defender.

Malik Nabers through 3 games:
• 34% TPRR
• 35.2% Target Share
• 58.3% Air Yards Share

Malik Nabers has more total air yards (257) than the Kansas City Chiefs (248) and Washington Commanders (247) offenses.

Air yardage share leaders through three weeks:
• 57% — Malik Nabers
• 56% — Terry McLaurin
• 50% — Rashid Shaheed
• 50% — Calvin Ridley
• 49% — George Pickens
• 47% — Justin Jefferson
• 46% — DeVonta Smith
• 45% — Nico Collins
• 44% — Marvin Harrison Jr., Amari Cooper

Some context from a doctor of physical therapy on why CMC going to Germany for treatment may actually be a good thing.

Brandon Aubrey would be the:
• WR4
• TE1
• RB6
• QB16

Through 3 weeks, here are the only tight ends who are top 12 in both route participation and target share:
• Trey McBride
• George Kittle
• Dallas Goedert
• Zach Ertz
• Pat Freiermuth
• Hunter Henry

Jayden Daniels has had 2 NFL games where his team scored on every drive excluding kneel downs (three total starts). Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Patrick Mahomes combined have done this twice in their careers including playoffs (1,094 starts).

Josh Downs had a team-high first-read target rate (33%) in his first game of 2024.

Best RBs in missed tackles forced per touch this season (min. 25 touches, PFF):
1. Devin Singletary (41%)
2. Zach Charbonnet (36%)
3. Bucky Irving (33%)
4. Emanuel Wilson (32%)
5. James Conner (29%)

Red zone snap rate leaders at RB
• 100% — Rachaad White, Kyren Williams, Zach Charbonnet (W2+3)
• 94% — Jordan Mason
• 88% — Saquon Barkley
• 85% — Joe Mixon (W1+2)
• 83% — Zack Moss, James Conner
• 81% — Tony Pollard
• 80% — Kenneth Walker (W1)

Only three players have 300+ air yards over the last two weeks:
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Malik Nabers
• Rome Odunze

Through three weeks, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are both pacing to finish top-10 in PPG among rookie WRs going back to 1998.

Target per route run rate leaders at WR through three weeks:
34% - Rashee Rice
33% - Malik Nabers
29% - Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL End Zone Target leaders:
Diontae Johnson - 6
Marvin Harrison Jr., Trenton Irwin - 5
Courtland Sutton, Jalen Nailor, Malik Nabers, Nico Collins - 4

Malik Nabers is the only Rookie Wide Receiver since 2006 that has scored 65+ PPR in the first three weeks.

The Packers have 612 rushing yards so far this season. Per TruMedia, That’s the fourth most through three weeks of any team since 2000:
1. 2006 Falcons (675)
2. 2019 Ravens (650)
3. 2013 Eagles (627)
4. 2024 Packers (612)

Jauan Jennings’ 46.5 PPR points are the 9th most of any 49er *ever* and has only been bested four times by Jerry Rice and once by Terrell Owens.

Diontae Johnson's 122 receiving yards on Sunday is a career high. (37.8% target share).

Buccaneers running backs through 2.5 games this season:
• Rachaad White: 31 carries for 66 yards (2.1 YPC)
• Bucky Irving: 20 carries for 133 yards (6.7 YPC)

Nico Collins is pacing for 102 receptions & 1,915 yards through 3 games to start 2024.

Andy Dalton is the first QB in the NFL this season to throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs.

Caleb Williams missed some deep balls and still threw for 363 yards in his 3rd ever career game. This would be the most single game passing yards in Justin Fields’ entire career.

Devon Achane is the only second Year Running Back to ever post 23+ PPR in each of their first two games.

Through three weeks, there are 7 WRs averaging 16+ fantasy points per game - compared to 14 RBs.

The Jets scored their 9th offensive touchdown in Week 11 against Buffalo in 2023; they have 9 offensive touchdowns through 3 games in 2024.

Since the beginning of the 2023 season, top-10 fantasy finishes:
• Patrick Mahomes - 5 in 19 starts
• Kirk Cousins - 6 in 11 starts

For the dynasty folks in the audience: Sam Darnold is the same age as Joe Burrow and four years younger than Dak Prescott.

Best offensive lines in rush yards *before contact* per carry (PFF)
1. Ravens (2.3)
2. Colts (2.1)
3. Chargers (2.1)
4. Saints (1.9)
5. Packers (1.8)

---

Cold Water:

Worst offensive lines in rush yards *before contact* per carry (PFF)
28. Raiders (0.6)
29. Broncos (0.6)
30. Bears (0.5)
31. Buccaneers (0.3)
32. Jets (0.2)

Javonte Williams ranks amongst 59 qualifying RBs this season:
• YPC: 2.2 (55th)
• PFF Rush Grade: 43.4 (59th)
• Yards after Contact per Attempt: 2.0 (55th)
• Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt: -2.0 (57th)
• Success Rate: 20.8% (56th)
• Rush EPA per Attempt: (59th)

Worst RBs in missed tackles forced per touch this season (min. 25 touches, PFF):
36. Travis Etienne (11%)
37. Kyren Williams (9.5%)
38. D'Andre Swift (9%)
39. Ty Chandler (4%)
40. Gus Edwards (0%)

Patrick Mahomes is currently second-to-last among starting quarterbacks in his rate of throwing it 20+ air yards. He's last when looking at 15+ air yard throws.

Brock Bowers route rates
• Week 1: 78%
• Week 2: 65%
• Week 3: 60%

The Colts are giving up 250 rushing yards per game AND just lost Buckner. The Bears averaged only 2.3 yards per carry.

D’Andre Swift down to 1.8 YPC on 37 carries this season.

Mark Andrews only played 20 snaps (33%) on Sunday. He was targeted once.

Deshaun Watson leads the league in total dropbacks. Excluding Bryce Young, who has been benched, he is last in the league in:
• Total QBR
• Yards per attempt + yards per dropback
• Success rate
• Explosive play rate

First 18 starts for Bryce Young and Trevor Lawrence:
W-L record: Young 2-16, Lawrence 3-15
TD: Young 11, Lawrence 13
INT: Young 13, Lawrence 18
Comp%: Young 59.3%, Lawrence 59.5%

What do Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Caleb Williams, Will Levis, and Deshaun Watson all have in common? They all have a higher completion percentage than Trevor Lawrence through two weeks.

Waiver Weapons - Week Three:

Welcome to one of the sections of the newsletter we create in-house. Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player available in fewer than 33% of Sleeper fantasy leagues whom they believe you could start for the upcoming week (no kickers or defenses). Last week, Jake Ferguson was healthier than expected and kept Camaron’s pick, Luke Schoonmaker, off the field. Meanwhile, Chris’ pick, Sam Darnold, finished as the QB9, scoring his highest points of the season. Let’s aim for another strong week!

Camaron’s Pick: Josh Downs, WR, IND (31% rostered on Sleeper) - The Steelers have had a solid season, but they struggle against slot receivers, ranking among the worst in the league in yards allowed to the position. Josh Downs, one of the most promising second-year receivers, is poised to exploit this weakness and put up big numbers against their defense this week. Grab Downs now before he becomes a top waiver target next week.

Chris’ Pick: Tyrone Tracy, Jr., RB, NYG (10% rostered on Sleeper) - if you - like I - made the mistake of adhering to Zero RB amidst this year’s surprise “bellcow RB renaissance,” then you - like I - are probably scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for anyone to gamble on with two functional legs that knows which direction their opponent’s end zone is in. Not only does Tyrone Tracy fit those (admittedly not very stringent) criteria, but he showed positive signs of more involvement in the Giants offense last week vs. Cleveland; his snap share jumped from 21% to 31%, and he averaged 4.6 YPC (albeit on five carries) + caught 100% of his targets (albeit two targets). I wouldn’t start him if I didn’t have to (my hopes are NOT as high here as they were for Sam Darnold last week), but he’s currently slotted in as my RB2 in at least one league over Jaylen Wright, Isaac Guerendo, and an injured Jaylen Warren; fingers crossed I can get a trade through by Sunday… and remind me to never draft ZRB again.

Trade Target Thursday:

In the words of Migos and Drake, we walk it like we talk it around here.

Pardon the brief musical interlude, but I’m excited (or maybe nervous [or maybe both]) about grabbing my trade targets from each of the past two weeks in one fell swoop: Josh Jacobs and George Pickens are all mine in exchange for Bijan Robinson and Rashid Shaheed. Let me know what you think in the comments; so far (Week 3) it has worked out, however marginally, but that was a down week for all four players involved so it is still way too soon to judge. You came here for a new trade target, though - not me waxing poetic on those from weeks past - so let’s lock in.

This week’s Trade Target is Tee Higgins. As you might imagine, drafting a guy in the fifth round and then having him not play for the first two games isn’t exactly a recipe for success; I did a quick survey of my redraft leagues, and while one lady is 3-0 (I am scared of her team), most of the teams with Tee Higgins have a record of 1-2. If you’re in a position of relative strength, this is the perfect opportunity to simultaneously sell high on a guy who has been hot over the past few weeks to a team that’s teetering on the brink of desperation.

Higgins was targeted six times (~16% target share) in his return to action and played on 90% of snaps. Sure, he only caught three of them, but one (end zone) target was overthrown and the other two (one of which was also in the end zone) were against really tight coverage (props to Ben St-Juste). Defense is defense, but let’s assume Joe Burrow actually put the three-yard TD on him instead of over him - his 6.9 PPR points, which landed him at WR58 on the week, would instead be 14.2 (right around Garrett Wilson’s Week 3 performance at WR30).

You’re not chasing imaginary production, though; we want upside. Out of his last six games with more than 80% of snaps on the field, Tee Higgins was a top-10 WR in four. Let’s chalk Week 3 up to a little bit of rust that needed to be shaken off, go buy some Tee Higgins at a discount, and make some magic happen. I’d be thrilled to grab him for a D.J. Moore or Tony Pollard type of character, both of whom are showing in the same range on CBS Sports’ Week 4 trade value chart.

The Fun Stuff:

Will Levis continuing the run of the season.

Why does Trevor Lawrence look so bad? Pt.1

Apparently Jordan Love is only good during Toyotathon. The jury is out on Chevy Truck Month.

Jordan Mailata in the greatest mic’d up clip you might ever hear.

Travis Kelce had the Under.

The most fun 6 yard gain of the 2024 season.

This is exactly how you guys had your rankings drawn up too, right?

Caleb or Rome? Who gets to keep their first touchdown ball?

Dexter Lawrence called the coin toss: "Tails never fails. God Damn…"

Bijan with the Big Boy pass protection.

Why does Caleb Williams look so bad? Pt. 3…

Ben Johnson with the play of the year?

Garrett Wilson is the first 1st-round WR to catch a TD pass from Aaron Rodgers.

Guess the apples don’t fall far from the (Zac Taylor) tree.

Some days you’re doing the “sonning,” some days you’re getting “sonned” - that’s just how it goes.

Bucs rookies named (or rather, struggled to name) a bunch of items from the 90’s, and boy don’t I feel old.

Breece Hall and Aaron Rodgers twinning.

Jameis Winston is, once again, a national treasure.

You’ve heard of bulletin board material, but have you heard of phone lockscreen material?

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