Josh Dobbs is Gen-Z’s Ryan Fitzpatrick
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Who’s ready to make some desperation trades to squeak into the playoffs? Banners fly forever, peeps.
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Analysis & Hype:
Jahmyr Gibbs vs David Montgomery in Week 10:
• Snaps: 58% v 38%
• Attempts: 50% v 43%
• Inside five-yard line attempts: 50% v 50%
• Routes: 64% v 33%
• Targets: 16% v 0%
• Fantasy points: 26.2 v 17.6
Lions Chargers QB Total EPA
• Justin Herbert: 21.8
• Jared Goff: 14.6
Chargers in Justin Herbert's 59 career starts, including playoffs
• Points scored 1,502
• Points allowed 1,502
Noah Brown has 325 yards over the last two weeks.
Joshua Dobbs:
• Season-high in passing yards this week (268).
• Averaging more rushing YPG than Jalen Hurts (36.8).
• Has as many rushing TD’s as Lamar Jackson (5) this year.
QBs with more rushing yards than Joshua Dobbs (368) this season:
• Lamar Jackson (480)
• <end of list>
Jonathan Taylor snaps since Week 5:
W5: 16%
W6: 43%
W7: 49%
W8: 61%
W9: 75%
W10: 89%
Most receiving yard over the past three weeks:
• CeeDee Lamb (503)
• Noah Brown (382)
• Amari Cooper (326)
All 3 were Cowboys in 2021.
De'Von Achane currently has the highest PPR points per game of any player of all time. Second is Patrick Mahomes. Third is James Brim who played three games as a replacement player during the 1987 lockout. Fourth is Christian McCaffrey.
Just ONE Quarterback is supporting THREE 14+ PPG Wide Receivers this Season: CJ Stroud.
Trey McBride now up to 2.39 yards per route run, via PFF. That trails only Travis Kelce (2.43) at tight end. It's also 14th best among all 179 qualifying NFL pass-catchers.
Trey McBride over the past 3 weeks:
• 34.5% air yard share
• 31.5% target share
• 3.02 YPRR
Javonte Williams over the past 3 weeks:
• 18, 30, & 25 touches the past 3 games.
• 3+ receptions in all 3 games.
Kyler Murray’s KTC Value:
• During the season opener - QB18
• After playing just one game - QB11
Jaylen Warren vs. Najee Harris in 2023:
• EPA/Rush: Warren +0.02, Harris -0.10
• YPC: Warren 5.13, Harris 4.00
• Success Rate: Warren 43.7%, Harris 33.6%
• Explosive Play Rate: Warren 14.1%, Harris 6.8%
• Tackled for loss: Warren 11.3%, Harris 9.4%
Commanders QB Sam Howell is the only quarterback in NFL history to have all of the following stats through 11 games:
• 2900+ passing yards
• 200+ rushing yards
• 65+ completion percentage
Jordan Love: 84.3 PFF grade over the last two weeks; he ranks 6th out of 34 eligible QBs over that period
Russell Wilson 2023 NFL Ranks
• Pass TD: 3rd
• Pass TD/Att: 1st
• Pass TD/INT: 2nd
• Pass Rating: 4th
• 4th Qtr Comebacks: t-1st
• GW Drives: t-2nd
RB rush shares Week 10
100% — Devin Singletary, Joe Mixon
96% — Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor
87% — Saquon Barkley
84% — James Conner
83% — Rachaad White
79% — Austin Ekeler
77% — Breece Hall
76% — Kenneth Walker
75% — D’Onta Foreman
Zach Charbonnet has now outsnapped Kenneth Walker in each of the last three games; if not for the latter’s 64-yard touchdown reception, Charbonnet would also have outscored him in PPR over the same period.
Yards-after-Contact per attempt leaders this year at the RB Position:
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (2.3)
2. Christian McCaffrey (2.2)
2. Breece Hall (2.2)
4. David Montgomery (2.0)
5. Derrick Henry (1.9)
There are 33 qualified QBs this season. Only one has committed fewer than 5 turnovers. His name is Kenny Pickett (4).
Kenny Pickett:
• Career Wins 13
• Career Pass TD 13
• Career Interceptions 13
Players tackled at one-yard line and did not score TD on same drive in Week 10 (pre-MNF):
• Tony Pollard x2
• Austin Ekeler x3 (same drive)
• Justin Herbert x2 (same drive, did end up throwing TD)
• David Montgomery x2 (same drive)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Michael Pittman
• Michael Wilson
• Gardner Minshew
Keaton Mitchell among all RBs with 10+ carries this season:
• Yards per carry: 14.3 (1st)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.75 (1st)
Diontae Johnson is the only WR under the age of 30 who’s top-15 in PFF Receiving Grade, top-15 in Expected PPG, and top-20 in Actual PPG, but priced outside the Top-30 in dynasty.
Cold Water:
Yards-after-Contact basement dwellers (minimum 85 attempts)
31. Kenneth Walker (1.2)
31. Rachaad White (1.2)
31. D’Onta Foreman (1.2)
34. Josh Jacobs (1.2)
35. Alvin Kamara (1.0)
Bills offense thru week 10:
• 3rd in DVOA
• 1st in success rate
• 3rd in EPA/play
• 4th in QBR
• 3rd in yds/play
• 2nd in 3rd down conversion %
• 3rd in red zone efficiency
• Fired their OC Ken Dorsey
Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb have the same number of rushing touchdowns since Week 2.
Yards per touch this season:
Tony Pollard (4.4)
Ezekiel Elliott (4.5)
Christian Watson’s current 17 game pace 40 rec 668 rec yards 3 TDs -15 rush yards.
The Falcons have lost 3 straight games to:
• Will Levis in his 1st start
• Joshua Dobbs 5 days after he was traded
• Kyler Murray in his 1st game back from an ACL tear
Tom Brady lost 66 games in 20 years as the starter for the Patriots. The Patriots have lost 33 games since Brady left—half the amount Brady did in 20 years.
TD passes over the last two seasons:
• Retired NFL commentator Matt Ryan (14)
• Kenny Pickett (13)
TD passes this season:
• Justin Fields (11)
• Trevor Lawrence (9)
DK Metcalf and DeAndre Hopkins are leading the NFL in uncatchable targets in the red zone due to QB accuracy. Their Week 10 expected fantasy points were 19.3 and 17.7 respectively.
Calvin Ridley now ranks 78th in ESPN's open score.
The Texans now have more than twice as many explosive passing plays (66; 2nd) as the Panthers (30; dead last).
The Fun Stuff:
Joshua Dobbs made a TikTok of his own touchdown.
Jaylen Warren hitting a video game spin move.
David Montgomery hitting this juke like he’s prime AP.
Josh Dobbs arrived for his first home game... and he had to be shown where the locker room is.
The best camera angle to watch Kyler Murray highlights.
Shannon Sharpe and Chad Ochocinco were two of the hardest players in their prime.
Proposed new combine drill: 40-yard dance.
You just know he’s still riding the family phone plan too.
Lamar Jackson is a bully, and the Ravens coaching staff are enablers.
Waiver Weapons - Week Eleven:
Well, Week 10 was a rough week for the waiver weapons on our squads. Leonard Fournette didn’t play a snap (though Chris did say not to start him), Michael Wilson never connected on the deep throws (that dropped touchdown felt personal), and Cade Otton had his worst game since Week 6. But high spirits will move us forward, and with some important teams on bye again, some of us could use some waiver help.
Camaron’s Pick: Michael Wilson, WR, ARI (23% rostered on Sleeper) - Ctrl C + Ctrl V. Everything I said about Michael Wilson was true. Kyler looks great and connected easily with the rookie last week, and if Wilson had caught that one touchdown, we’d be looking somewhere else for a waiver weapon because Wilson would be too highly rostered. Despite the 6.4 PPR game last week, Wilson’s rostered rate actually went up from 20% to 23% as more people are recognizing the potential these weapons now have with Kyler back. Trust that the deep ball catch will come.
Chris’ Pick: Rico Dowdle, RB, DAL (18% rostered on Sleeper) - Rico Suave put up a mid-range RB2 performance in Week 10. Sure, a lot of his work came in “garbage time,” and sure, it was against the Giants, but I feel like there’s something here. RedZone cut to the Cowboys-Giants game a few times this Sunday (unfortunately), and I couldn’t help but notice how much more explosive Dowdle looked than Pollard. If you’re in a pinch this week, the Cowboys might find themselves in a similar game script against the also-awful Panthers; longer-term, Dowdy Doody might just manage to carve out a larger role in an otherwise-explosive Cowboys offense that’s still trying to find it’s feet in the ground game.
Will’s Pick: Jayden Reed, WR, GB (39% rostered on Sleeper) - Gotta be honest, here. This is 100% a pure gut call. I was surprised to see a 39% roster rate as he’s WR 42 on the season. The rookie taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft has quietly been having himself a good first season, including an 84 yard 19 fantasy point performance last week. I like picking up waiver options that have a chance to turn it up a notch for the rest of the season, and Jayden fits that mold.
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