Jordan Whittington Rookie Gold

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

Hope you’re ready to be irresponsibly hyped about Dontayvion Wicks and Rashee Rice this week. On the flip side, the cold-water section is a graveyard of aging WRs.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Last week we shared this stat but only included running backs that we projected to reach 300+ rush attempts instead of touches. Sorry about that.
91% of RBs with 300+ Touches over the last decade have finished Top-12 at the position. Here is the correct list of running backs we predict to get over 300 touches this season in our draft guide:
• Bijan Robinson
• Christian McCaffrey
• Jonathan Taylor
• Kyren Williams
• Breece Hall
• Saquon Barkley

Kyler Murray averaged more than 5 rushing fantasy points per game coming off an ACL tear last year, and the team just added Marvin Harrison Jr.

Tyreek Hill in two years with HC Mike McDaniel:
• 2023 - 376.4 Fantasy Points (9th best all time)
• 2022 - 347.2 Fantasy Points (23rd best all time)

Dontayvion Wicks leads all WRs this preseason with 65.00 Yards Per Route Run.

Tight Ends to Average a 20%+ Target Share in their first three seasons
• George Kittle
• Kyle Pitts

Since 2022, in the games Greg Dortch played 70% of the snaps w/ Kyler Murray, Dortch averaged 14 FP/Game.
• 4 of the 7 games he had a 20%+ target share.
• 3 of the 7 games he led the team in targets.

In seasons Gardner Minshew has played 14+ games...his WR1 stats:
• 2023 Michael Pittman- 109/156, 1,152 Rec Yds, 4 TD, WR13 finish
• 2019 DJ Chark- 73/118, 1,008 Rec Yds, 8 TD, WR17 finish

Jonathan Taylor led the NFL with 2.7 YAC/attempt last season.

Rashee Rice on three drives with Patrick Mahomes this preseason:
• 94% route participation
• 38% target share

Rookie WR’s with 75+ receptions & 900+ yards in the past decade:
• OBJ
• MT
• Jefferson
• ARSB
• Waddle
• Chase
• Garrett Wilson
• Puka
• Rashee Rice

There’s been Six Elite Wide Receiver Prospects to post a 9.00+ Relative Athletic Score (like Xavier Worthy did). They averaged 14.3 PPG in their respective rookie seasons.

The Chargers are averaging a preseason NFL-high 2.3 rush yards before contact per carry after ranking 28th (0.9) in 2023.

In games where Tank Dell played over 70% of snaps last year, he averaged 20.2 fantasy points.

Los Angeles Rams Round 7 rookie WR Jordan Whittington leads the NFL in preseason targets (17) and receptions (12).

Tyjae Spears as a Rookie:
• 7.0% Breakaway Run Rate (#5)
• 26.3% Juke Rate (#4)
• 4.58 Yards Created Per Touch (#5)

De'Von Achane ran an RB league-leading 34.2% of his routes from the slot last year.

De’Von Achane had as many 40-yard runs in his rookie year as Reggie Bush did in 11 seasons.

The record for most yards by a TE through three years is 2,900 (Kelce). Kyle Pitts has 2,000 playing hurt in a run first offense and with Desmond Ridder throwing him the ball.

Calvin Ridley had 52.2% of all JAX end zone targets last year. #1 in the NFL. Most since Dez Bryant in 2017. This is a Brian Thomas Jr. tweet (or maybe Christian Kirk/Gabe Davis - time will tell).

Drake Maye’s 14% designed rush rate and 11% scramble rate ranked second behind Jayden Daniels this preseason.

Twelve QB’s have posted 100+ rushing attempts in a collegiate season & gotten drafted Top-3 overall in the NFL Draft (since 2000). Except for Baker Mayfield & Trey Lance, every one (10/12; 83.3%) has posted at least one top-12 PPG fantasy finish in the NFL. This year there were three: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye.

Justin Jefferson without Kirk Cousins:
• 6 Games
• 58 Targets
• 38 Receptions (6.33/game)
• 561 Receiving Yards (93.5/game)
• 2 Rec TDs
• 17.7 PPG

Over the last 20 years, every QB that played at least 16 games and ran the ball 90+ times finished as a QB1 in fantasy football (except 2014 Colin Kaepernick).

11 personnel preseason usage:
1. Rams (98.5%)
2. Falcons (97%)
...
32. Bears (40.2%)

Raiders looking like the best fantasy football DST that should usually be available in the last two rounds:
• 7th in fantasy points last year
• Already dope Maxx Crosby-led d-line added Christian Wilkins
• Weeks 1-6: LAC, BAL (the notable exception), CAR, CLE, DEN, PIT

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Cold Water:

Joe Burrow has less than 1.5 rushing fantasy points per game in 2 of his past 3 seasons.

The NFL season kicks off in 17 days. The following players have missed most, if not all, of camp:
• Lamb, Chase, Aiyuk (holdout)
• Puka (knee)
• J Herbert (Foot)
• J Brooks (ACL)
• Chubb (ACL++)
• Kendre Miller (Hamstring)
• Ricky Pearsall (Hamstring, Shoulder)
• TJ Hockenson (ACL)
• Juwan Johnson (Foot)

285 WRs have a preseason receiving grade on PFF right now. Keenan Allen ranks 250th among those 285.

Dameon Pierce yards gained on his eight preseason carries: -1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3.

Dolphins RB usage on opening drive with Tua Tagovailoa
• Raheem Mostert: 82% snaps, 5 carries
• De'Von Achane: 18% snaps, 1 carry

Highest rate of incompletions due to inaccurate passes:
• 43.9% - Deshaun Watson
• 40.6% - Tyrod Taylor
• 38.8% - Trevor Siemian

Jahan Dotson was 94th among 102 qualifying WRs in yards per route run last season.

The Steelers played both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields at QB for the entirety of a preseason game (with a lot of other starters in) and only scored three points. They threw for a total of 139 yards combined.

Najee Harris has zero 40-yard runs in his NFL career.

Davante Adams finished #2 in the NFL in targets (175). Yet he was the WR17 in fantasy points per game (12.6).

Worst preseason offensive lines in
Rush yards before contact per carry:
• 31. Jaguars
• 32. Browns
Pressure rate allowed:
• 31. Jaguars
• 32. Browns

Over the final 13 games of the season, Stefon Diggs received 27% of Bills targets. He had fewer receiving yards than Khalil Shakir despite 59 more targets

The Fun Stuff:

Gardner Minshew has officially won the starting QB role.

Apparently Josh Allen is a dairy aficionado?

The Falcons released Kirk Cousins' birthday practice playlist.

“The behind the back wasn’t planned, I only did it cause Travis ran the wrong route & I was pissed off at him.” - Patrick Mahomes

Jim Harbaugh is apparently a weird dude, but the kind of weird that ya just gotta love.

DeAndre Hopkins is trapped

If high school Tyreek Hill competed in the 200m finals at the Olympics, it looks like he would have come in 3rd or 4th (hard to tell).

Trey Hendrickson with the sack?

In case you forgot who AJ Brown is.

It’s not often that Sauce Gardner is left speechless, but it seems like “Danny Dimes” has him at a loss for words.

At least one Raiders fan has a grasp on reality. Kid’s going places (just not the Super Bowl).

Mike McDaniel is fitting in just fine.

JT “The QB School” O’Sullivan (career passer rating: 69.9) is getting cooked by randos on X now.

Looks like Tim Walz might want to stick to politics; today’s game is not kind to the classics.

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