Jayden Daniels GOAT Debate

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

The bye weeks are now rolling in, and so are the injuries. Now is the time to make those league winning trades and waiver maneuvers. Some good nuggets below to help you with that this week.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

DK Metcalf is averaging a career-high in PPG (18.1) in 2024.

Only 3 tight ends have at least 4 receptions in 3 consecutive games their team has played this year.
• Brock Bowers
• Pat Freiermuth
• Erick All

Cincinnati Bengals rookie TE Erick All continues to be awesome with limited opportunities; among TEs with 35+ routes run:
• 32% target per route run rate (TE1)
• 13% first-down per route run rate (TE1)
• 2.16 yards per route run (TE3)

Washington has the 2nd best offense in terms of EPA/play in the first four weeks of a season since 1999.

Explosive Plays (15+ yards)
17 - Nico Collins
16 -
15 -
14 -
13 -
12 -
11 -
10 -
9 - Jayden Reed, Jauan Jennings, Malik Nabers

Nico Collins is currently on pace for 2,079 receiving yards

Chiefs RB touches after Carson Steele fumbled on the first drive:
• Kareem Hunt 16
• Samaje Perine 5
• Steele 1

Packers target shares with Dontayvion Wicks on the field the last two seasons (395 routes):
• Dontayvion Wicks: 24%
• Jayden Reed: 17%
• Romeo Doubs: 16%
• Tucker Kraft: 10%
• Christian Watson: 2%

Dontayvion Wicks is tied with Cooper Kupp for 1st in the NFL in expected fantasy pts per route run (XFP/RR) amongst all WRs this season (min. 50 routes)

Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 1 and 2: 32.0% and 33.3%. Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 3 and 4: 61.5% and 61.1%.

Caleb Williams passer rating by week this season:
• Week 1 - 55.7
• Week 2 - 51.0
• Week 3 - 80.8
• Week 4 - 106.6

Chase Brown's role is growing over the last three games:
• Snaps: 18%, 23%, 42%
• Attempts: 20%, 37%, 48%
• Routes: 12%, 12%, 34%

Jordan Whittington: full-time role in Week 4:
• 97% route participation
• 28% target share
• 26% air yards share

Jayden Reed’s statistics in his two games with Jordan Love behind center:
• Week 1: 4-138-1 receiving, 1-33-1 rushing
• Week 4: 7-139-1 receiving

Over the past 365 days, only eight WRs have scored more PPR points than Jayden Reed.

Diontae Johnson in two games with Andy Dalton:
• 23.8 fantasy points per game
• 91% routes
• 35% targets
• 55% air yards

Rachaad White had played 100% of Tampa Bay's red zone snap through three weeks. In Week 4, rookie Bucky Irving handled all five of Tampa's red zone rush attempts.

Rashid Shaheed target shares in first four games:
• 22%, 27%, 26%, 31%
Air yards:
• 47%, 46%, 51%, 52%

Derrick Henry came within 0.17 mph of Xavier Worthy's top speed on his 54-yard touchdown catch today while weighing an extra 82 pounds.

Alvin Kamara played through broken ribs on Sunday. He said not playing was never a consideration.

Rookie Wide Receivers with 90+ PPR points in their first four games:
• Puka Nacua
• Malik Nabers

Malik Nabers now has 35 receptions in his first 4 career games. Justin Jefferson has had one 4-game stretch in his career with 35+ receptions.

Most targets NFL season: Marvin Harrison, 205, 2002
Most receptions NFL season: Michael Thomas, 149, 2019
Malik Nabers 16-game pace (normalizing for additional game added since then): 208, 140

Brian Thomas Jr. first-read target rate by week:
• Week 1 - 25.0%
• Week 2 - 17.4%
• Week 3 - 22.4%
• Week 4 - 33.3%

Jayden Daniels leads all QBs in total EPA through Week 4.

Jayden Daniels has more scoring drives (23) than incomplete passes (19) through his first four NFL games.

Rush attempt per offensive snap rate (2023-24 data):
• 21.0% - Jayden Daniels
• 15.4% - Lamar Jackson
• 15.0% - Jalen Hurts
• 13.8% - Anthony Richardson
• 10.4% - Josh Allen
• 8.2% - Kyler Murray

Derrick Henry has the most rushing yards so far in 2024, as well as since the start of 2023, 2022, 2021, and so on - dating back to 2011.

Only 25% of Brock Purdy's passing yards have come from YAC so far this season.

Highest Pass Rating over first 25 career starts since merger
• Brock Purdy: 112.6
• Patrick Mahomes: 112.5
• Kurt Warner: 106.2

The past two games from scrimmage (could also be filed under Cold Water for Breece):
• Breece Hall 32-101-1
• Braelon Allen 23-114-0

Sam Darnold now had more passing touchdowns so far in 2024 (10) than he had in the 2020, 2021, 2022 or 2023 seasons.

Wan'Dale Robinson is on pace to catch 111 passes this season.

Rome Odunze's percentage of the Chicago Bears first-read targets by week:
• Week 1 - 10%
• Week 2 - 18%
• Week 3 - 27% (tied for the team-lead)

TJ Hockenson is expected to play within the next two weeks.

Ashton Jeanty (Boise State RB) is on pace to finish with over 2,500 rushing yards (NCAA season is only 12 games), score 39 touchdowns (Barry Sanders’ record was 37 in 1988), and have the highest PFF Rushing Grade, most Yards After Contact, and most Missed Tackles Forced since PFF started tracking CFB ten years ago.

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Cold Water:

Jared Goff (1) has more receiving touchdowns than Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, Brandon Aiyuk and Jaylen Waddle combined (0).

Jameson Williams weekly target shares:
1. 32.1%
2. 20.7%
3. 13.6%
4. 10.5%

Highest off-target rates on passes that traveled 10+ air yards in 2024:
• 57% - Tyler Huntley
• 40% - Bryce Young
• 38% - Caleb Williams

Per PFF, turnover-worthy plays through 4 weeks (pre-MNF):
• Jalen Hurts: 11
• Patrick Mahomes: 7
• Anthony Richardson: 7
• Kirk Cousins: 7
• Dak Prescott: 7

Fantasy points per game at QB over the past 365 days:
QB17 - Patrick Mahomes

Backup RBs averaging far more yards per carry than the starter this season (min. 15 carries):
• Tank Bigsby (8.2) vs. Travis Etienne (4.6)
• Chase Brown (6.3) vs. Zack Moss (3.9)
• Tyler Allgeier (6.1) vs. Bijan Robinson (4.1)
• Bucky Irving (5.8) vs. Rachaad White (2.8)
• Cordarrelle Patterson (5.8) vs. Najee Harris (3.4)
• Antonio Gibson (5.3) vs. Rhamondre Stevenson (4.1)
• Alexander Mattison (5.1) vs. Zamir White (3.1)
• Braelon Allen (4.8) vs. Breece Hall (3.1)

Fewest yards per carry among RBs with 30+ carries this season:
• Breece Hall (3.1)
• Zamir White (3.1)
• D'Andre Swift (3.0)
• Gus Edwards (3.0)
• Rachaad White (2.8)

Mark Andrews route participation the last two games: 35% and 45%.

Mark Andrews thru 4 weeks: 7 pass blocks
Andrews 2022 & 2023 combined: 8 pass blocks

2024 receiving fantasy points, standard scoring:
• Mark Andrews: 6.5
• Jared Goff: 6.7

Kyler Murray's opening 15 plays in 4 games this season:
• 22 of 27 for 290 yards - 5 TDs - 1 Sack
All other dropbacks:
• 56 of 88 for 530 yards - 1 TD - 1 INT - 9 Sacks

Bo Nix just beat Aaron Rodgers and the Jets with his second leading receiver being fullback Michael Burton, who had 3 yards.

Ray-Ray McCloud has 4 times as many targets as Kyle Pitts.

J.K. Dobbins:
• Weeks 1 & 2: 27 carries, 266 yards, 2 touchdowns, 140 rush yards over expected.
• Weeks 3 & 4: 29 carries, 76 yards, 0 touchdowns, -56 rush yards over expected.

Patrick Surtain II weekly victims list:
• DK Metcalf: 29 yards allowed
• George Pickens: 16 yards allowed
• Mike Evans: 8 yards allowed
• Garrett Wilson: 22 yards allowed
• Week 5: Jakobi Meyers…

Players who have more inside the 5-yard line carries than Bijan Robinson:
• Derek Carr
• Bucky Irving
• Khalil Herbert
• Daniel Jones
• Carson Steele

The Raiders have three WRs averaging more fantasy PPR points per game than Garrett Wilson this season.

Waiver Weapons - Week Five:

Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Camaron bounced back from his Week 3 pick with Josh Downs, who put up 22.2 PPR points. Meanwhile, Chris’ pick, Tyrone Tracy Jr., had a few opportunities to shine but just missed out on a key receiving touchdown. Now, with bye weeks starting, it’s time to turn to Waiver Weapons for help.

Camaron’s Pick: Antonio Gibson, RB, NE (30% rostered on Sleeper)
The New England Patriots' starting running back, Rhamondre Stevenson, began the season hot, racking up 200 total rushing yards in the first two games. However, since Week 2, he has yet to surpass 50 rushing yards in a game and has fumbled in every outing. On the other hand, Antonio Gibson is averaging more yards per carry and a higher target share per snap. While Gibson may not suddenly take the lead in rushing attempts, he has high upside, especially if Stevenson’s workload decreases. The Dolphins also present a favorable matchup on paper.

Chris’ Pick: Erick All, TE, CIN (2% rostered on Sleeper) - what do Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Evan Engram all have in common? Two things, actually: I drafted them all (with decently high picks, no less…), and they’ve all been out-produced by a rookie TE coming off an ACL tear over the last three weeks. For those of you who love to complain about “cherry-picked stats,” I left out Week 1 because Erick didn’t play (see: coming off an ACL tear). Tight end is a wasteland this year, but All represents a diamond in the rough; he’s finding opportunity while he’s on the field and cashing in on it, despite limited snaps (although he was on the field for 60% of snaps last week - his highest mark to-date). The efficiency is there - he ranks third in yards per route run among qualifying TEs - and Burrow clearly trusts him when he’s on the field - he ranks first in targets per route run among qualifying TEs. All that’s left is for Cincinnati to get him on the field more. You might want to take the Bengals’ approach and ease him into your offense, or if you’re in a tight spot (like the one I find myself in across several leagues - can’t believe I bought the Pitts hype AGAIN), you might just throw him to the wolves. Your call, but either way, he should be rostered in way more than 2% of leagues.

Trade Target Thursday:

Bye, bye, bye. Welcome to hell. If your roster looks like an *NSYNC lyric sheet, that means we’re getting to the meat of the fantasy season. Byes can be your friend when it comes to trades, though, at least if your league mates are susceptible to some common cognitive biases:

• Many fantasy players tend to devalue guys who are currently on bye, especially if they are in a tighter spot at other positions.

• I’ve also been able to pull off quite a few deals swapping out players who have a future bye for guys who had theirs already (without giving a discount).

The sweet spot for that second move is generally around Weeks 7-9 (the middle of bye season) and works best when selling late-bye players for early-bye players (so it’s less noticeable - shoutout to recency bias). We’ll have at least one of those deals on #TradeTargetThursday in the future, but for now, we’re focused on the first strategy.

Enter Jalen Hurts. Generally ranked as the QB3 heading into drafts, he’s been struggling to start the season. Hurts is QB9 through Week 4, and that’s anchored by a strong performance in Week 2 vs. the Falcons; over the last two weeks, he is actually the QB20. Spoiler alert: the fact that he isn’t playing this week will not help. Once he’s back from his week off, though, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should both also be back from their respective injuries (their absences are undoubtedly a contributing factor to his poor start). Two paths forward here:

• If the Hurts owner in your league already has a solid backup but is needy at another position (due to byes or otherwise), try to grab Hurts straight up at a discounted price. Bonus points if you can sell a guy like Jake Ferguson, who you quite possibly got off of waivers anyway.

• If the Hurts owner in your league does not have a backup, and you yourself may have happened into a second QB (remember when I told you guys to grab Sam Darnold a few weeks ago? Pepperidge Farm remembers), I’d package them (or your originally drafted QB) up with another player at a position where they’re needy and make a two-for-one deal.

It’s not often you have an opportunity to buy low on a QB who is surrounded by talent and eats goal-line work for breakfast, lunch and dinner (#tushpushbuffet), but such a moment is upon us. Best of luck in your pursuit.

P.S. - for the haters keeping score on my Bijan + Shaheed for Pickens + Jacobs deal at home, sorry to disappoint, but Week 4 was another win (albeit a slight one) for the Pickens and Jacobs side - 28.1 vs. 27.1 in PPR. If it’s any consolation, the trade has been a Pyrrhic victory so far, as that team still slid further into the loss column on the back of a Richardson injury + Pitts goose egg.

The Fun Stuff:

"I think my 10-yard split is faster than Christian's and Deebo's... I think... you guys can fact-check me." - Brock Purdy

Kenneth Walker took tumbling lessons.

“Simon says take a sip of Gatorade”.

“Ja’Marr, did you have baby oil on today?”

Me every single time I hear Phil Collins' In the Air Tonight.

Bears punter Tory Taylor hype video.

Rob Gronkowski, bullshit artist extraordinaire.

Meet Granny Dimes.

“Well, I just gave the game ball to somebody else - so I feel awful right now.” - Dan Campbell.

Joe Flacco is 8 days older than Anthony Richardson’s mom.

We’re not Bills fans, but this tugs at the heartstrings.

Kirk Cousins is catching up on the culture.

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