It’s Time to Dance
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Traveling for work to New York this week reminded me (Chris Smith) that it’s indeed the middle of December. The nights are getting shorter, the weather’s getting colder, and most importantly - the fantasy playoff fields are set. At this point, every quick FA pickup and smart lineup bet could make the difference, so we’re back for you like always with the best data and takes from around the Twittersphere. Just breathe, keep doing what you’ve been doing - winning games - and we’ll be hoisting trophies before you know it.
If you need help figuring out how to survive wildcard weekend, fret not, cause we’ve got you covered. In case you haven’t heard yet, the newsletter party keeps on rockin’ all week - not just Thursday mornings or whenever we decide to post on Twitter. If you’re looking for the greatest community of fantasy players that the internet has to offer, complete with advice and the fastest headlines around, then join our premium subscribers’ community on Discord via Patreon for just $5 a month. Here’s a taste of what we talked about this week:
Playoff matchup/seeding disputes
Tons of last minute panic start/sit decisions heading into Week 14’s games!
Chris teasing some off-season data analysis on the Patreon
Playoff qualifying Monday night stress (largely induced by Jalen Hurts)
Is Purdy + Lawrence buying low on Lamar?
Our members’ different holiday traditions (how cute)
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As always, let us know what stats helped you out in the comments, Reddit, or on Twitter @FFNewsletter! Onward to the news.
Analysis & Hype:
Matthew Stafford is the NFL’s only QB with more touchdowns (35) than combined interceptions + fumbles + sacks (27). +8 differential! Joe Burrow (-1) and Brock Purdy (-2) are the only other QBs even close.
Second year TEs with 50/500/5 + 80% snap share since 2012:
• George Kittle
• Tucker Kraft
• Brock Bowers
• Theo Johnson
Omarion Hampton vs. Kimani Vidal in Week 14:
• Rush Share: Hampton 48.1% | Vidal 51.9%
• Route Share: Hampton 17.1% | Vidal 56.1%
Players that have more WR1 games than Jameson Williams this season:
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Puka Nacua
De’Von Achane on the ground this season:
• 90.7 PFF run grade (1st)
• 4.10 yards after contact per attempt (1st)
• 42 missed tackles forced (8th)
• 35 runs of 10+ yards (1st)
• 20 runs of 15+ yards (1st)
TE PPR Points since Week 10:
1. Trey McBride
2. George Kittle
3. Brock Bowers
4. Harold Fannin
5. Colby Parkinson
Players with multiple overall WR1 weeks this season:
• Drake London
• Michael Wilson
Blake Corum in the 2025 season:
• 5.46 YPC (4th among 41 RBs w/ 100+ attempts)
• 44.6% 5+ yard run rate (2nd)
• 19.8% 10+ yard run rate (1st)
• 7.9% 15+ yard run rate (2nd)
• 57.4% success rate (2nd)
• 0.22 missed tackles forced/att (2nd)
Out of all running backs with 100 rushes, Blake Corum is 1st in EPA per rush this season.
Year 2 Wide Receivers in Yards per Route Run (minimum 150 routes run):
1. Adonai Mitchell
2. Marvin Harrison Jr.
3. Ryan Flournoy
4. Rome Odunze
5. Brian Thomas Jr.
Mahomes has accounted for 76% of KC’s yardage this season. Highest rate by any QB on any team.
Harold Fannin in 3 games with Shedeur Sanders as the starter:
• 0.26 targets per route (6th)
• 23.9% target share (4th)
• 2.43 yards per route (5th)
• 65.7 yards per game (4th)
Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 32.4 PPR points per game since Dan Campbell took over play-calling in Week 10.
There are 8 instances of an RB posting 36+ PPR points this season. Jahmyr Gibbs makes up 4 of those 8 instances... in his past 7 games.
Most TDs in NFL history in a player’s first 3 seasons:
• 47 - Barry Sanders
• 46 - Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers
• 45 - Jahmyr Gibbs, Earl Campbell
Highest RB YPC in NFL History (min. 500 Attempts):
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.56
2. Bo Jackson, 5.40
3. Jamaal Charles, 5.38
If Stefon Diggs averages 4-5 catches a game for ~75 yards to close things out, he can make an extra $1.5 to $2M.
Kyle Pitts led the Falcons on Sunday with a 34.5% target share. He’s seen shares of 25.0%, 25.8%, and 34.5% over the last three without Drake London.
Brandon Aubrey would currently rank as the QB22, RB12, WR7, and TE2 in fantasy football. He has more fantasy points (163.0) this season than:
• Justin Jefferson
• Saquon Barkley
• Ashton Jeanty
• Drake London
In his 3 NFL seasons, Brandon Aubrey has as many career 60-yard field goals (6-for-9, 66.7%) as every NFL kicker from 1960 to 2008 (6-for-82, 7.3%).
Cold Water:
Saquon Barkley inside the five-yard line:
• 8 carries
• 3 yards
• 0 TD
The Jets are currently averaging 146.5 passing yards per game, which would be the second-worst average in the NFL since 2012. In 2022 (with Justin Fields) the Bears averaged 130.5 yards per game.
Per Elias Sports Bureau, no player as far back as their data goes (1978) had ever committed two turnovers on one play before Jalen Hurts.
NFL Leaders in Uncatchable Expected Fantasy Points per Game (minimum 8 catchable fantasy points per game):
1. Malik Nabers
2. Emeka Egbuka
3. Davante Adams
4. Rome Odunze
5. Justin Jefferson
Tony Pollard scored 28.1 half PPR fantasy points in Week 14 and he had exactly 28.1 points in his previous five games combined.
Emeka Egbuka:
• Weeks 1-5: 20.5 PPR points per game (WR3)
• Week 6-14: 8.9 (WR47)
Patrick Mahomes against the Texans:
• -0.54 EPA per dropback (Worst start of his career)
• 42.4% completion percentage. (Worst of his career)
• 19.8 passer rating (Worst of his career)
The Steelers have won 3 games since WW2 where they were outrushed by 170+ yards:
• 2020 at Ravens (-217)
• 2025 at Ravens (-183)
• 2021 at Ravens (-170)
Justin Jefferson finished Week 14 with just two catches. That’s the second straight week where he’s had only two grabs. Jefferson had two (or fewer) catches in two total games in 2023 and 2024 combined.
Waiver Weapons
Each week, Camaron and Chris will each share a player that is rostered in < 33% of Sleeper fantasy leagues who we think you could start in a given week (No kickers or defenses). Just to be extra fun, we decide on these players post-waivers so that you can pick them up last minute. Only three weeks of waiver weapons left meaning it’s time to lock in. Last week Camaron’s pick n Vele was only able to produce 3 catches for 40 yards in a great matchup disappointing most fantasy managers. Chris’ pick Isaac Teslaa however was able to at least catch a touchdown giving those that started him a nice WR3 score. Teslaa and Vele are fine emergency fill-ins again this week if needed because of their route shares, but lets see if we can do a bit better.
Camaron’s Pick: Jalen Coker, WR, CAR (9% rostered on Sleeper) - Jalen Coker was an exciting year two prospect among most dynasty circles thanks to high target share at the end of last season. Then he suffered a quad strain in august that sidelined him for the first 7 weeks. Coker has slowly been climbing higher up in the target pecking order and now is set for a good matchup against the Saints slot corners. Coker has two WR2 seasons already and I think in a very important playoff matchup he could get you a third.
Chris’ Pick: Shedeur Sanders, QB, CLE (27% rostered on Sleeper) - the haters doubted me when I took Sanders 1.10 in a SF rookie draft earlier this year. They were praying on my downfall. Unfortunately, their prayers were answered, but while I missed the opportunity to start Sanders before my team was eliminated for entirely unrelated reasons, we’ve got a chance to roll him out in redraft this week. Fresh off a QB2 overall performance in Week 14, Shedeur gets to face a Chicago defense that’s given up the third-most passing touchdowns in the league. At this point, he’s just playing to prove himself and develop with nothing on the line, so look for plenty of deep shots - the Bears also give up the third most 20+ yard receptions in the NFL.
The Fun Stuff:
Cam Ward might as well have dunked on Delpit.
The battle for the NFC North has been foretold!
Fun facts about the return of Philip Rivers:
• With Daniel Jones on IR, he can get his number back.
• He is older than 12 current head coaches.
• In July, he signed a one-day ceremonial contract in order to retire a Charger.
• 9 of the Seahawks’ starters on defense weren’t yet in the league the last time Philip Rivers played. Nick Emmanwori was born the same year Rivers was drafted.
Jahmyr Gibbs made Bland faceplant…
The whole series is great, but this particular episode of “The Bills explain random stuff” is excellent.
The Giants tried, but half of this video is Jameis trying to pronounce oil.
Most receiving yards over the age of 40:
• Jerry Rice: 2509 yards
• Tom Brady: 6 yards
• Marcedes Lewis: 2 yards
• Everybody ever: 0 yards
• Brett Favre: -2 yards
• Aaron Rodgers: -9 yards (clip)
Chase Brown believes in you.
De’Von Achane with the run of the year
Impressive performance by these little KC fans.
George Pickens putting up a WR1 social media performance in a contract year to prove to teams he’s the complete package.
Isaac TeSlaa’s 8 career catches.
There’s more to the story with Crabtree and Sherm.
Joe Burrow, Pokémon guy.
DeVonta Smith has plans to be an action hero if it ever comes down to it. He also has a plan to start mixing fruits.
Let’s put Jameis Winston and Gronk on the Nickelodeon broadcast and just see what happens.
The last AFC title game without either Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady starting at QB was in 2010 season when Ben Roethlisberger beat Mark Sanchez. The last time the AFC title game didn’t include Mahomes, Brady, Roethlisberger, or Manning was 2003. Rich Gannon vs Steve McNair.
Just another day at the office, right Chuba Hubbard?
Chiefs WRs should spend less time dancing and more time catching the ball.
An incredible send off fitting of the playoffs. Thanks for riding with us - let’s knock ‘em dead, and we’ll see you back here next week.
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Great stuff as always