It’d be easier to list teams NOT in the hunt for Brandon Aiyuk
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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!
We got a full slate of preseason games to overreact to lined up this weekend. We can smell the headlines already.
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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
Biggest single-game PPR performances from 2023:
• QB: CJ Stroud (41.8 vs. TB)
• RB: De'Von Achane (51.3 vs. DEN)
• WR: Ja'Marr Chase (52.2 vs. ARZ)
• TE: Jake Ferguson (37.3 vs. GB)
DJ Moore hasn't had a target share below 27.6% since 2020.
Every single WR to declare-early & get drafted Top-10 in the past decade has put up 850+ receiving yards as a rookie. 2024 candidates:
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Malik Nabers
Eighty percent of top-100 overall rookie wide receivers since 2014 have exceeded ADP expected Points per Game. Top-100 overall rookie wide receivers right now:
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Malik Nabers
• Xavier Worthy
• Rome Odunze
• Ladd McConkey
Over the past four years, just two Quarterbacks have more 24+ PPG Seasons than Kyler Murray:
• Josh Allen
• Patrick Mahomes
Kyler Murray has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 11 of his last 18 games played.
CeeDee Lamb was on 39.4% of fantasy football teams in championship matchups in ESPN leagues in 2023. Dak Prescott was on 23.6% of teams.
Cole Kmet hasn't had a target share below 17.7% since 2020.
QBs to average more fantasy points per game than Justin Fields over the past two years:
• Josh Allen
• Jalen Hurts
• Patrick Mahomes
• Lamar Jackson
• Joe Burrow
Justin Fields has averaged 8.9 Rush PPG over the past two seasons.
Take all the TEs to finish top 5 in PPR over the last 20 years. That's 100 players. ALL of them had 90+ targets or 10+ TDs. Tight ends we at the FF Newsletter project to reach 90+ targets in our draft guide:
• Evan Engram
• Sam LaPorta
• Travis Kelce
• Trey McBride
• Dalton Kincaid
• Mark Andrews
• Kyle Pitts
• David Njoku
• Dallas Goedert
• George Kittle
• Jake Ferguson
George Kittle led all TE’s in YPRR (2.22) & PFF Receiving Grade (85.9) last year. Put up 1,000+ yards on just 90 targets. And had his lowest pass-block rate (7.0%) in his career.
Tyreek Hill’s 3.88 yards per route run last season was the highest mark ever among players who ran 100 routes in a season.
Tyreek Hill finished as a Top 5 WR in 60% of his games played last season. Next closest Top 5 WR finish rates: Lamb: 31%, Nacua: 25%, St. Brown: 20%, AJ Brown: 19%.
Last season, Tua Tagavailoa ranked:
• 1st in passing yards
• 5th in touchdowns
• 3rd in completion %
• 4th in Passer Rating
Cowboys rookie WR Ryan Flournoy (2.69) had the highest Yards Per Route Run among all 2024 NFL Draft receivers drafted in rounds 5-7. Last year’s highest was Puka Nacua (3.45).
Davante Adams over the last 6 years has averaged 10.6 targets per game. That's a pace of 180. In his two years with LV, he's had 175 and 180.
Over the past five years, 3 of the top-8 single-season avoided tackle rates belong to Josh Jacobs.
Nico Collins route run win rate in 2024:
• Vs Man - 94th percentile
• Vs Zone - 62nd
• Vs Press - 96th
Christian Watson's career percentage of Green Bay's receiving volume when on the field:
• Targets - 25.6% (18th among WRs)
• Air yards - 44% (7th)
• Red zone TGT - 39% (3rd)
• End zone TGT - 50% (1st)
When Jordan Love balled out in the last eight games of the season, here's how the WRs performed:
• Jayden Reed: 14.8 PPG (WR10) in 8/8 games
• Christian Watson: 13.6 PPG (WR15) in 3/8 games
• Dontayvion Wicks: 10.0 PPG (WR34) in 7/8 games
• Romeo Doubs: 7.6 PPG (WR49) in 8/8 games
45 Running Back Prospects have posted multiple 20+ PPG Collegiate Seasons and got drafted before Day Three. 27 (60%) went on to post an RB1 Season. Blake Corum is the only one to meet these criteria in the 2024 Draft Class.
Last year in the 1 game Brandon Aiyuk missed, Deebo Samuel was targeted 12 times, had 6 catches, 129 yards & a TD.
Deebo Samuel has run 182 routes with Brandon Aiyuk off the field since the team drafted Aiyuk. Samuel on those plays:
• 37.4% target rate per route run
• 73.5% catch rate
• 4.73 yards per route run
• 17.2 yards per catch
Only two WRs had 90+ PFF grades against man and zone last season: Brandon Aiyuk (90.4, 90.2) and Justin Jefferson (90.2, 90.6).
Players that have moved into the Top-100, from Pre-NFL Draft to now on Underdog:
• Keon Coleman - 137.5 to 76.6 overall (+60.9 spots)
• Ladd McConkey - 113.1 to 71.9 (+41.1)
• Joshua Palmer - 134.4 to 99.3 (+35.1)
• Jameson Williams - 100.9 to 83.4 (+17.5)
• Zamir White - 103.6 to 88.2 (+15.4)
The Eagles Top-2 RBs combined for 69 catches last year - which would've ranked Top-5 among starting RBs. It would also be the most receptions Saquon Barkley has had since his rookie year where he was the RB1.
Rico Dowdle ranked Top 10 in yards created per touch last season.
Tyjae Spears ran 75 fewer routes than Tony Pollard last year. He commanded:
• 1 more target
• a 32% better TPRR (targets per route run)
• 24% more yards
• a 56% better YPRR (yards per route run)
Caleb Williams is the only Quarterback to post 10.0+ average yards per attempt in each of their first three collegiate seasons.
In their Age 31 seasons, elite fantasy WRs have still managed ~102% of their career average production. 31 year old WRs in the NFL right now:
• Davante Adams
• Cooper Kupp
• Tyler Lockett
Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL on November 11th, 2023 at 20 years old. Todd Gurley tore his ACL on November 15th, 2014 at 20 years old. Here’s how many touches he had as a rookie in 2015.
• Week 1: 0 (inactive)
• Week 2: 0 (inactive)
• Week 3: 7
• Week 4: 21
• Week 5: 30
The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 25th in situation-neutral pace of play in 2023. Ranks for previous Kellen Moore offenses:
• 2019 - 1st
• 2020 - 1st
• 2021 - 1st
• 2022 - 1st
• 2023 - 4th
Garrett Wilson put up a 56.5% catch rate in 2023. Davante Adams put up the following catch rates in his last three seasons with Aaron Rodgers:
• 2022: 72.8%
• 2021: 77.2%
• 2020: 77.1%
If you gave Wilson a bump to 70% catch rate on last year's targets, he'd have 118 catches.
Najee Harris among 49 qualifying RBs last season:
• Explosive run rate: 10th
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 19th
• Yards after contact per attempt: 17th
The last time Curtis Samuel played with Bills OC Joe Brady (2020 in Carolina, as the WR3 behind Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, with Teddy Bridgewater at QB):
• 97 targets (6.5 per game)
• 77 receptions (5.1 per game)
• 851 yards (56.7 per game)
• 41 rushing attempts (2.73 per game)
TDs on passes of 10+ yards since 2021
• 54 - Josh Allen
[…]
[…keep going]
• 40 - Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow
• 37 - Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins
Cold Water:
Arthur Smith's rank in Pass Rate Over Expectation in the 5 years he's been OC or HC:
• 2019 Titans: 29th
• 2020 Titans: 30th
• 2021 Falcons: 13th
• 2022 Falcons: 31st
• 2023 Falcons: 32nd
Dalton Kincaid in games with Dawson Knox active:
• 59.8% route share (would rank TE25)
• 13.3% target share (TE20)
• 32.7 receiving YPG (TE19)
• 1.48 YPRR (TE18)
• 6.8 FPG (TE26)
Will Levis posted a 5.9% Big Time Throw Rate (6th best in the league) and a 4.5% Turnover Worthy Rate (third worst).
Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts both had over 40% of their team’s rush attempts inside the 5 yard line in 2023. Lamar Jackson had only 15%.
Kyle Pitts last year led the league amongst TEs in Unrealized Air Yards (479).
Lowest percentage of red zone touches (rush or reception) that went to the RB position in 2023:
• 47% - PHI
• 48% - BAL
• 52% - BUF
• 54% - ARI
• 59% - CHI
Only 2 of 69 Eagles passing touchdowns over the past three seasons have gone to the RB position.
The only round one WR’s in the past decade to play 25+ collegiate games & produce only one collegiate season above 500 receiving yards:
• Kelvin Benjamin
• Kadarius Toney
• Jameson Williams
• Brian Thomas Jr.
• Xavier Legette
Najee Harris is trending downward in volume:
• 2021: 18.1 ATT/G, 5.5 TGT/G
• 2022: 16.0 ATT/G, 3.1 TGT/G
• 2023: 15.0 ATT/G, 2.2 TGT/G
A lot’s being made of Zamir White’s late season run last year, but the defenses he faced over that four game stretch all ranked 21st or lower in run defense DVOA.
The Fun Stuff:
Malik Nabers and Kerby Joseph fist fight.
Luke Combs made the losers of his fantasy football league sing on stage at his concert.
If you ever want to guarantee at least a second-place finish in your league, you could always follow in the footsteps of the US Olympic Soccer team back in 1904.
Bijan Robinson Toy Story highlights. Yes they’re old, no we don’t care.
You didn’t have to do her that dirty, Shannon Sharpe.
Tyson “T Bag” Bagent continues to be an absolute beast.
Can someone tell George Kittle what the word “proprioception” means?
Coach Harbaugh clearly doesn’t skip leg day.
Next time you’re trying to make a trade, send your prospective partner this song. Hopefully they laugh so hard they accidentally hit accept.
At this point, Apple just needs to release a Siri voice done by Xavier Legette.
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