“If you’ve had sex 9 times since September 12th, you’ve scored more than Russell Wilson.”
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Welcome back!
We’re nearing the home-stretch, now, ladies and gents. Some of us can smell that championship trophy. Not me, of course. I drafted Javonte Williams and Kyle Pitts in most of my leagues. But I’m sure some of us are almost there!
Analysis & Hype:
Clutch Twitter thread: Best fantasy football schedules for the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17) based on the average rank of each position's opponents
Deshaun Watson finishes
2020: QB5
2019: QB5
2018: QB4
2017: QB1 (points per game, played 7)
“Now he's surrounded by the best supporting cast of his career. I understand the concerns about morality, but he likely returns to form as a dominant fantasy QB. Don't overthink this.”
Since 2011, only four rookie WRs have eclipsed an 80.0 PFF receiving grade and a 22% target share:
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr.
2014 - Mike Evans
2020 - Justin Jefferson
2021 - Ja'Marr Chase
2022 (so far):
Chris Olave (84.5 and 24%)
Garrett Wilson (81.8 and 23%)
Marquise Brown out-targetted DeAndre Hopkins in his first game back from injury.
Best Passer Rating since start of last season (min. 500 attempts)
Joe Burrow 105.4
Aaron Rodgers 103.8
Dak Prescott 102.1
Patrick Mahomes 101.2
Tua Tagovailoa 100.9
Trevor Lawrence ranks this month:
Comp pct 76.9% 1st
Pass Rating 116.1 2nd
Pass TD-INT 6-0 2nd
Christian Watson has the 3rd most PPR points among WRs since week 9 after only Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson.
Christian Watson's rank among rookie WRs (min 15 targets)
- 2.45 yards/route run (1st)
- 7.5 YAC/reception (1st)
- 80% catch rate (2nd)
- 6 TD (1st) - 138.8 passer rating when targeted (1st)
Christian Watson has more receiving TDs in his last three games than each of these WRs have all season:
Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb
Tyreek Hill
Tee Higgins
Mike Evans
D.K. Metcalf
First Read Targets per Game
1. DeAndre Hopkins (9.5)
2. Davante Adams (9.0)
3. Garrett Wilson in games w/out Zach Wilson (8.8)
4. Justin Jefferson (8.7)
4. Tyreek Hill (8.7)
6. Stefon Diggs (8.1)
“On a per-route basis... Garrett Wilson without Zach Wilson = AJ Brown/Tee Higgins level producer. As a rookie.
Wilson w Wilson - 20% target per route run rate - 1.64 yards per route run
Wilson w/o Wilson - 30% TPRR - 2.27 YPRR”
Christian McCaffrey Panthers RB1 Weeks 1-6:
670 total yards 3 TD
D'Onta Foreman Panthers RB1 Weeks 7-12:
551 total yards 4 TD
Chart with team pass rate over expectation.
Rachaad White operated as a bell-cow with Leonard Fournette out, playing 91% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps. He finished the day with 78% of the Bucs' running back rushes and an elite 21.4% target share.
TJ Hockenson has finished as a TE1 (top-12) in PPR formats in all four games played as a Viking so far this season.
Tua Tagovailoa’s latest rankings:
Pass Rating 1st
Pass TD/Att 1st
Yards/Att 1st
Yards/Comp 1st
Top QB Seasons by EPA/Play [Since 2012]
1. Tua Tagovailoa, 2022 (0.400)
2. Drew Brees, 2018 (0.368)
3. Patrick Mahomes, 2018 (0.363)
4. Aaron Rodgers, 2020 (0.362)
5. Aaron Rodgers, 2014 (0.348)
6. Peyton Manning, 2013 (0.346)
Austin Ekeler on pace for a jaw-dropping 123 catches. NFL record for a RB is 116, set by Christian McCaffrey in 2019.
Mike White: 149.3 passer rating in Week 12 Highest among all QBs.
Most TDs since start of last season:
32- Austin Ekeler
24- Joe Mixon
23- Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, James Conner
All-time NFL record for completion percentage in a season:
1. Drew Brees 2018 -- 74.4%
2. Drew Brees 2019 -- 74.3%
*3. Geno Smith 2022 -- 72.8%
4. Drew Brees 2017 -- 72.0%
*Through 11 games
The Cardinals didn't ease Marquise Brown back into action last week. 97% route participation 31% target share (1st) 73% slot work (Rondale Moore & Greg Dortch out) 11.8 ADOT
Last 10 Games w/ Dak Prescott
Dalton Schultz: 15.0 FPG (~WR16)
CeeDee Lamb: 13.5 FPG (~WR25)
Rhamondre Stevenson has hit a 22% target share or better in five straight games.
The current RB1 in fantasy ranks 22nd in rushing yards
The current QB6 in fantasy ranks 27th in passing yards
The current TE16 in fantasy has 31 total receiving yards
Jalen Hurts is the only QB in NFL history in his first 30 starts with:
6,500+ passing yds
1,500+ rushing yds
Twitter thread: “Rhamondre Stevenson’s upside as THE RB1 Overall next season?”
Something to keep an eye out in Dynasty. On top of a loaded incoming rookie class, The 2023 free agent RB class is absolutely stacked, including:
- Josh Jacobs
- Saquon Barkley
- Miles Sanders
- Tony Pollard
- David Montgomery
- Kareem Hunt
- Jamaal Williams
- Damien Harris
- Jeff Wilson, Jr.
- Devin Singletary
- Raheem Mostert
- Rashaad Penny
Cold Water:
The addition of Christian McCaffrey has been bad for Deebo Samuel's opportunities:
Deebo target shares pre-CMC: 23%, 24%, 29%, 29%, 30%, 25%
Post-CMC: 14%, 17%, 32%, 14%
CMC is battling for same low ADOT targets.
Dameon Pierce is averaging 1.07 yards per attempt over the last two weeks.
Trey McBride has run 150 routes this season. It's resulted in a pathetic 9 catches, 46 yards, 0 TDs. McBride's 0.30 yards per route run is dead last among all TEs with at least 80 routes.
Russell Wilson was QB33 in Week 12. There are 32 teams in the NFL.
The Fun Stuff:
“If you’ve had sex 9 times since September 12th, you’ve scored more than Russell Wilson.”
Pete Carroll watching Russell Wilson cook this season.
Derek Carr is looking more & more like Marv from the Wet Bandits with every loss
“Trade calc had it even bro im open to a counter”
Me supporting the U.S. Men’s Soccer Team after literally not watching a single second of soccer for the past 8 years
3-9 team setting their lineup for a matchup with the 10-2 team
“Bro, your technique was trash.” -Mike McDaniel to Tua.
Mike McDaniel on his early interactions with Tua, how he realized just how much damage was done to Tua's psyche and how he worked to restore his confidence.
Watching myself draft Chase Edmonds over Josh Jacobs back in August:
Setting my fantasy lineups in Week 1 vs setting waiver claims in Week 12.
the most Mike McDaniel video you’ll ever see.
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