“If you squint hard enough, there isn't a huge falloff from Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp to Baker Mayfield and Ben Skowronek.”
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Welcome back!
Sheesh. Last week of the fantasy regular season. This will be the last edition of the newsletter this year. Most seasons I’ll continue through the playoffs, but these next few weeks are going to be hectic ones, and the fantasy playoffs are usually when ~60% of readers fall off.
With that said, I want to give a big thanks for another awesome season. We hit 20k subscribers to the newsletter this year, and it’s awesome to hear how much it’s been enjoyed. Appreciate all of you, and looking forward to seeing you again when we fire this back up in the off-season.
Now let’s kick some ass in the playoffs.
-Will
Analysis & Hype:
Garrett Wilson on Mike White: "He was out there, controlling the huddle, never letting the moment get too big. It was cool to see. Looking back on it now, it’s cool to think about. I know I'd go to war for that boy. He's got something special about him."
Target per route run rates over the past month:
37% - D'Andre Swift
34% - Davante Adams
32% - Amon-Ra St. Brown
31% - Austin Ekeler, Terry McLaurin
30% - CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin
28% - Rhamondre Stevenson
27% - DK Metcalf, Nico Collins
Massive improvement from Jalen Hurts as a thrower this season:
* 3rd in completion percentage (26th last year)
* 2nd in yards per attempt (15th last year)
* 3rd in passer rating (22nd last year)
* 4th in PFF's passing grades (20th last year)
And on pace for 187-862-12 rushing.
Inside the five-yard line this season:
Snaps:
Jerick McKinnon (29)
Isiah Pacheco (8)
Carries:
McKinnon (5)
Pacheco (7)
Routes:
McKinnon (17)
Pacheco (1)
“D'Andre Swift is a league winner”
21 fantasy points in Week 13
Week 14 vs MIN: Allow 5th most RecYds/game to RBs
Week 15 vs NYJ: Allow 8th most RecYds/game to RBs
Week 16 vs CAR: Allow 9th most fantasy points to RBs
Week 17 vs CHI: Allow 6th most fantasy points to RBs
Only 2 QBs in the NFL have thrown 0 interceptions with at least 120 pass attempts over the last 4 weeks:
Kenny Pickett
Jared Goff
Without Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet led the Bears in routes run and targets last week. He averaged 2.5 targets per game from Weeks 1 through 8, but is averaging 6 per game since then.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has seen a 20%+ target share in three of his last six games.
Small-sample size be damned: Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo making the most out of his opportunities this season:
PFF receiving grade: 79.5 (No. 5 among 37 TE with 25+ targets)
Yards per route run: 2.75 (No. 1)
Yards per reception: 18.3 (No. 1)
Targets per route run: 25% (No. 3)
Five players have logged a seven-game streak with 50+ receiving yards this year.
- Stefon Diggs
- CeeDee Lamb
- Travis Kelce
- Chris Olave
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
Amon-Ra St. Brown finished last week with 12 targets, 11 catches, 114 yards, 2 touchdowns and 34.6 fantasy points. He has topped 114 yards in 3 of his last 4, has 3 TDs in his last 2 games and is averaging 24.9 fantasy PPG in the last month.
Christian Watson had a 21% target share last week. That's a target share above 20% in three of his last four games. He's also been a top-10 wide receiver in each of his last four.
Christian Watson over the past four games:
Week 10: 3 TD
Week 11: 2 TD
Week 12: TD
Week 13: 2 TD
8 in 4 games.
2020 league winners:
- Justin Jefferson
- Brandon Aiyuk
2021 league winners:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
2022 (potential) league winners:
- Garrett Wilson
- Christian Watson
“Note to 2023 me: DRAFT ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS”
Jonathan Taylor under Jeff Saturday:
86% snaps
87% RB carries
86% RB touches
83% route rate
Chris Godwin receptions since returning from injury in Week 4: 7, 6, 6, 7, 6, 7, 6, 12, 8
Trevor Lawrence has had a league-high 25 passes dropped this season.
Dallas Goedert has been out for three games. In those three games, Devonta Smith has seen target shares of 39.1%, 36.0%, and 21.1%. Prior to the Goedert injury, he averaged a 22.4% target share per game.
D'Andre Swift played 51.4% of Detroit's offensive snaps today. That's his highest snap share since Week 8. His last three games were at 31% 31%, and 34%. As a result of that, Jamaal Williams had his lowest snap share (31%) of the season.
Greg Dulcich tied for the Broncos team lead last week in routes run, and he saw a season high 38% target share.
Weeks as a top-10 PPR RB this season:
Joe Mixon: 2
Samaje Perine: 3
Games with multiple passing touchdowns this season:
Geno Smith: 10
Russell Wilson: 1
Brandon Aiyuk in an interview with “Airing It Out” said that Brock Purdy told him this about his missed throw on the sideline: “I missed you on the field. That’s on me. I’m going to get better. I’m going to feed you.”
Deep Dynasty stash thread on /r/DynastyFF.
/r/DynastyFF thread with 2023 WR Prospect Rankings & Tiers
Cold Water:
If you're wondering about the state of tight end in fantasy, Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz (who haven't played since Week 10) both remain Top-6 in fantasy points.
Falcons backup tight end MyCole Pruitt now has the same amount of TDs on the season as starter Kyle Pitts (2)
Diontae Johnson weekly finishes as a top-24 PPR WR:
2019: 4
2020: 7
2021: 12
2022: 0
“The fact that Skyy Moore can't expand his role in this Chiefs WR room is not a good sign. I was a huge Moore supporter, but selling anywhere I can if someone else still believes in those KC vibes. When you can't dismount MVS or Justin Watson, things aren't going well...”
Russell Wilson this season has:
• fewer TD passes than Davis Mills
• less pass yards than Jacoby Brissett
• a lower CMP PCT than Marcus Mariota
• a worse QBR than Zach Wilson
• fewer 300-yard games than Joe Flacco
He's on the first year of a 5-year, $242M deal
The Fun Stuff:
“If you squint hard enough, there isn't a huge falloff from Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp to Baker Mayfield and Ben Skowronek.”
Who wore it better: Jason Kelce or Doug Whitmore from "50 First Dates"?
The Patriots leading receiver last week was CB Marcus Jones with 51 yards.
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