Hope Springs Eternal (Until Week 1)

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Ah, late July. The time of year when beat reporters become oracles, every running back is in the best shape of their life, and Kyle Pitts is once again being used “creatively.” Welcome back, fantasy friends.

This is the season of optimism, smoke screens, and highlight videos from 7-on-7s against air. It’s also when we begin making all the carefully calculated decisions that will lead to 17 weeks of self-loathing and screaming at red zone incompletions.

We’ve got takes. We’ve got charts. We’ve got a preseason blurb about a third-string tight end that will haunt us by Thanksgiving.

Let’s get to it.

Analysis & Hype:

Obama was still in office the last time Stefon Diggs finished worse than WR25 in PPR points per game.

Jalen McMillan’s stat line in his final five regular season games in 2024:
24 Receptions/331 Yard/7 TD.

Kyren Williams led all RBs in 2024 in Running Back snap share at 88.4%.

Among RBs with 200+ carries combined over the last two seasons (n = 44), Kyren Williams ranked:
• 3rd in success rate (55%):
• 3rd in carries going for first down or TD (32%):
• 14th in yards per carry (4.5)

2024 NFL WRs routes run last season:
1. Ja'Marr Chase (698)
2. Jerry Jeudy (669)
3. DJ Moore (631)
4. Garrett Wilson (610)
5. Tre Tucker (599)

Only one Rookie Wide Receiver has ever posted a higher PPG than Malik Nabers did.

Malik Nabers earned 170 targets last season. That was the most targets ever by a rookie WR… and he did it in 15 games.

JuJu Smith Schuster was the 2024 NFL Leader in YAC per reception (min. 400 snaps).

Chris Godwin was the WR2 overall behind only Ja’Marr Chase when he got hurt last year. He goes outside the top 30 WRs on every platform.

The only RBs since 2000 to enter the NFL with 4-straight 1k rush seasons:
• Najee Harris
• Chris Johnson
• Adrian Peterson
• Clinton Portis
• LaDainian Tomlinson

As a true freshman, Jack Bech lead a team in receptions that had:
• Brian Thomas Jr
• Malik Nabers
• Kayshon Boutte
• Trey Palmer

Running backs with 33+ career avoided tackles on receptions to be drafted since 2017:
• Ashton Jeanty: 41
• Raheim Sanders: 41
• Trestan Ebner: 39
• Jahmy Gibbs: 39
• Najee Harris: 35
• Omarion Hampton: 34

1st Round Tight Ends to post a 30%+ Target Share in their Junior Season:
• Colston Loveland

Omarion Hampton ranked in the 100th percentile in yards after contact.

49ers RBs in their 2024 games above a 50% snap share:
• Jordan Mason: 13.8 FPG
• Christian McCaffrey: 13.4 FPG
• Isaac Guerendo: 17.9 FPG

David Njoku in 6 games with Joe Flacco
• 55 targets
• 37 rec
• 483 yards
• 4 TDs

Highest snap shares by Day 3 rookie RBs:
1. Elijah Mitchell - 64.5%
2. Dameon Pierce - 62.0%
3. Tyrone Tracy - 57.1%
4. Michael Carter - 50.1%
5. Tyler Allgeier - 48.9%

12 rookie WRs have posted top-24 fantasy numbers in the last 10 years (PPR per game, min. 8 games). 2024: Malik Nabers & Brian Thomas.

Running Backs with the Most Yards Created Per Game in 2024:
1. Bijan Robinson: 81.0
2. Alvin Kamara: 76.9
3. Josh Jacobs: 75.7
4. James Conner: 75.6

Percentage of team receiving yards when on the field (Career):
• 43% - Harold Fannin Jr.
• 33% - Colston Loveland
• 30% - Sam LaPorta
• 29% - Brock Bowers

University of Miami career receiving yards leaderboard:
• Michael Irvin (2,423)
• Reggie Wayne (2,510)
• Santana Moss (2,546)
...
• Xavier Restrepo (2,844)

Diontae Johnson target shares by season:
• 2019 - 18%
• 2020 - 23%
• 2021 - 29%
• 2022 - 26%
• 2023 - 24%
• 2024 - 27%

Collegiate WRs to hit 2+ Yards per Team Pass Attempt as a True Freshman:
• Josh Reynolds
• Xavier Worthy
• Rondale Moore
• Corey Davis
• Calvin Ridley
• Marquise Brown
• Kyle Williams

14 WRs drafted between 5th and 12th overall over the last 10 years.
• Average rookie-year targets per game: 6.1
• Median rookie-year targets per game: 6.5
• Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024: 6.8

The NFL's most explosive RB in terms of % of carries to gain 10+ yards in 2024 (min. 50 carries): Sean Tucker.

Lamar Jackson posting +11.6 EPA while under pressure last season is one of the great feats in the history of playing QB. No other quarterback was above -17.0. Since 2015 only ‘18 Mahomes (+10.5) and ‘17 Brady (+1.1) have been positive under pressure.

Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs are the only running backs with more 20+ yard rushes than Najee Harris over the past two seasons.

Over the last 2 years, George Pickens is tied with Justin Jefferson for the most 20+ air yard catches in the NFL.

There are only four wide receivers being drafted outside the top-150 picks on Underdog who are making $10M+ per year:
• Darius Slayton
• Josh Palmer
• Tutu Atwell
• Dyami Brown

Rookie WR/TE first down/TD rate per route run since 2006:
1. Odell Beckham Jr: 14.6%
2. Rob Gronkowski: 13.6%
3. Puka Nacua: 13.3%
4. Ladd McConkey: 13.1%

Top 5 WRs in targets per routes run in 2024:
1. Puka Nacua
2. Malik Nabers
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. Nico Collins
5. Josh Downs

Since 2010, 21 rookie WRs have posted 16+ PPG in the second half of the season (i.e. from week 9 onward)

Justin Fields' ranks in check down rate (min. 100 dropbacks):
• 2024: 2nd
• 2023: 6th
• 2022: 36th
• 2021: 12th

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Cold Water:

Najee Harris is one of only six players in the history of the league to have never notched a 40-yard carry on at least 1,097 career attempts. Only one of the others played after 1986, and none played this century. Four were fullbacks.

Javonte Williams among 36 RBs with 125+ carries in 2024:
• Yards per Carry: 3.7 (tied for 32nd)
• Yards over expected per carry: -0.6 (35th)
• Yards after contact per carry: 2.4 (35th)
• Tackles avoided per carry: 15.1% (29th)
• Explosive Rush Rate: 7.2% (26th)
• PFF Rush Grade: 60.5 (36th)

Lowest passer rating in the NFL over the past two seasons:
• Daniel Jones
• Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson has completed just 38% of passes 7+ yards downfield when not pressured.

A random fantasy football nugget on this Friday: During Greg Roman's time as offensive coordinator in the NFL, he's never had a backfield rank in the top-10 in PPR points scored across a season.

Matthew Golden the past 2 years vs. man coverage:
• 2024: 0.92 YPRR
• 2023: 0.73 YPRR

Aaron Jones inside the five yard line last season:
• 12 carries
• -4 yards
• 3 TD

Highest share of Expected Fantasy Points (XFP) to come from receiving for RBs averaging 10+ FPG in 2024:
1. De'Von Achane - 53.2%
2. Christian McCaffrey - 51.9%
3. Austin Ekeler - 51.8%
4. Rachaad White - 50.6%
...
2nd-last: Jonathan Taylor - 20.1%
Last: Derrick Henry - 13.6%

Shedeur Sanders had 29 rushing yards in 50 collegiate starts. College counts sacks as negative rushing yards. If you remove them:
• 2024: 305 yards, 233 after contact, 10 missed tackles forced, 25 first downs
• 2023: 379 yards, 215 after contact, 20 missed tackles forced, 18 first downs

Only 28% of Kyler Murray’s fantasy point production came from rushing in 2024. That is the same amount as Bo Nix and Drake Maye.

ESPN's advanced receiver ratings comprise a 0-100 scale in separation, catching, and YAC ability. Three players earned a *0* in the catch rating department last season:
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Quentin Johnston
• Xavier Worthy

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Mini Draft Guide - Camaron

Hey everyone, unfortunately this year it is looking like I will not have time to write an official draft guide like we did last year. In place of that, I will be trying to add a mini section to the weekly newsletter. This week, we’re talking about Tight Ends.

Each dot is a TE taken in the top 200 over the last four seasons (2021–2024). The dotted line represents the line of best fit, basically, the mathematical curve that best explains how fantasy points per game (PPG) relates to Average Draft Position (ADP). Unlike most positions, this one isn't linear, it's quadratic, meaning it curves downward faster as ADP rises. The formula in the top corner lets you plug in any TE’s ADP and project their expected PPR points per game: y = 0.0002x² - 0.0829x + 15.386.

For example:
• Brock Bowers (ADP 17) is projected around 14.0 PPG
• T.J. Hockenson (ADP 71) falls to just 10.5 PPG
• That same 3.5-point gap appears again between Hockenson and rookie Mason Taylor 100 picks later (ADP 179) at 7.0 PPG

That’s the tight end dilemma. The production cliff comes early and comes fast. If you don’t grab one of the elite options, you’re better off waiting and grabbing one or two late-round upside plays than spending mid-round capital on a plateaued producer.

Draft Strategy:
Draft early or draft two at the end. Your best bets this year:
• Elite Tier (worth the price): Bowers, McBride, Kittle, LaPorta
• Avoid the Dead Zone: Hockenson, Kelce, Andrews, Njoku
• Late Fliers with Upside: Kraft, Kincaid, Strange

The Fun Stuff:

Tre Harris (QB) to Malik Nabers (WR) in high school. Yeah. You read that correctly.

Quinnen Williams vs. Quincy Williams in their own words.

“Yeah, just make me look like this guy” - Kirk Cousins to his barber, while holding a team photo of himself

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