Hey Siri, Play “Closing Time”
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The FF Newsletter? On a Tuesday?! That’s right folks - it’s a Christmas miracle. Since we’ll be spending Tuesday and Wednesday (our usual editing days) with our families this week, we cooked this edition up early, and figured that with games coming up on Wednesday it would make sense to share it early as well. As we noted a few weeks ago, this is also the last time you’ll see us this season (unless Cam does another “Draft Guide Roundup” postmortem edition), but it’s been our privilege and pleasure to embark on this journey with you, and we wish you and your families a happy, healthy finals week holiday season!
With all that said, if you can’t bear the thought of being without us for ~six months and you want to stay connected with us all offseason long, make sure to check out (and subscribe to!) our premium Discord for riveting discussion, round-the-clock news, draft analysis for your dynasty leagues, and of course - plenty of complaining about what went wrong this year.
Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
De'Von Achane has averaged 19.3 half PPR points in the 11 Tua Tagovailoa starts.
If you remove the one game he left early - De’Von Achane is the RB2 in PPG.
De’Von Achane leads all RBs in receptions (76), receiving yards (579), and receiving TDs (6).
Justin Jefferson touchdowns:
• Weeks 1-13: 5
• Weeks 14-16: 5
Kenneth Walker in 2024:
• PFF’s 2nd highest-graded rusher this season (91.2 Rushing Grade – behind only Derrick Henry).
• 4th in broken tackles (61) despite ranking 28th in rushing attempts (153).
• Top-10 in Elusiveness Rating (113.5).
• Pacing for a career-high 81-target 17-game pace.
Players with 100+ catches, 1500+ yards, and 16+ TDs in a season:
• Randy Moss (2003)
• Cooper Kupp (2021)
• Ja’Marr Chase (2024)
When Jayden Daniels targets Terry McLauring, his passer rating is 140.0 (158.3 is perfect). That’s the highest rating in a 75-target season since 2015 (Wilson to Baldwin).
Most passing TDs, last 2 seasons:
• Lamar Jackson - 61
• Baker Mayfield - 60
• Jared Goff - 60
• Jordan Love - 56* (updated at halftime during MNF)
Rookie Receptions Record:
• Puka Nacua: 105
• Brock Bowers: 101
Rookie Receiving Yards Record:
• Mike Ditka: 1,076
• Brock Bowers: 1,067
Rookie WRs with 960+ receiving yards this season:
• Brian Thomas Jr.
• Malik Nabers
• Ladd McConkey
Last 3 rookies to hit 1,000+ receiving yards and 8+ receiving TDs:
• A.J. Brown (2019)
• Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
• Brian Thomas Jr. (2024)
James Cook first 2 seasons:
• 4 rushing TDs on 326 carries (1.2% TD rate)
James Cook this season:
• 14 rushing TDs on 182 carries (7.7% TD rate)
James Cook is tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the most total TDs in the NFL this season (16).
Total Yards:
• Josh Allen: 4,063
• Lamar Jackson: 4,552
Total TDs/INTs:
• Josh Allen: 37/6
• Lamar Jackson: 40/4
Completion Percentage:
• Josh Allen: 63.8
• Lamar Jackson: 67.9
Passer Rating:
• Josh Allen: 101.2
• Lamar Jackson: 120.6
Only Amon-Ra St. Brown has more inside the 10-yard line receiving TDs than Andrei Iosivas (6).
Players with multiple seasons totaling 100+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, 10+ TDs through first four seasons:
• Larry Fitzgerald
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chase Brown is 77 yards away from 1K rushing yards.
Players with more receiving touchdowns than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine this season:
• Ja'Marr Chase
• Terry McLaurin
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Justin Jefferson
Malik Nabers (who missed two games) has 97 catches - not only has that passed Odell for the most by a Giants rookie ever, but he is just eight away from Puka Nacua’s rookie record of 105.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba games with 69+ receiving yards:
• Entire rookie season: 0
• Last eight weeks: 8
With a collection of Jones/Lock/Boyle/DeVito at QB and behind the 29th ranked O-line, Tyrone Tracy since taking over the starting job has posted:
• 4.71 yards per carry
• 83.1 yards per game
• 13.0 fantasy points per game
Sam Darnold has 12 games this season with a passer rating above 100, a Vikings single-season record. The only QBs with more in a season? Aaron Rodgers (2020), Aaron Rodgers (2011) and Patrick Mahomes (2018).
Passer rating while pressured in 2024:
1. Joe Burrow (104.7)
2. Sam Darnold (98.6)
3. Lamar Jackson (87.8)
Cold Water:
Passer rating while pressured in 2024:
25. Kyler Murray (55.9)
26. Geno Smith (54.0)
27. Matthew Stafford (50.3)
Caleb Williams has now lost 9 starts in which he threw 0 interceptions, which is now the most such losses in a single season since QB starts were first tracked in 1950.
Giants RB yards per carry by year:
• 2018: 4.7
• 2019: 4.2
• 2020: 4.1
• 2021: 3.9
• 2022: 4.4
• 2023: 3.6
• 2024: 4.2
Bo Nix on TNF:
• Total Passing Yards: 263
• Total Receiving Yards After the Catch: 231
Broncos Offense in 2023:
• PPG: 20.6
• Yards per Play: 5.1
• EPA/Dropback: -0.001
• EPA/Rush: -0.09
Broncos Offense in 2024:
• PPG: 21.2
• Yards per Play: 5.1
• EPA/Dropback: -0.005
• EPA/Rush: -0.10
Every single QB valued Top-7 in Dynasty is averaging 17.5+ fantasy PPG, except for CJ Stroud, who is averaging less than 15 PPG.
Since Week 7, C.J. Stroud's rankings in:
• Comp%: 30th
• EPA per Play: 28th
• EPA on All DBs: 30th
• Passer Rating: 29th
• Success Rate: 32nd
Waiver Weapons - Week Seventeen:
Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). We are currently writing this waiver weapon during the MNF game so we don’t know yet how Kendre Miller finished, but his first half start has not been promising (update: the second half was bad too). Malik Washington was also disappointing, but his high target share is encouraging for a potential dynasty stash. Let’s finish the season strong!
Camaron’s Pick: Ameer Abdullah, RB, LVR (24% rostered on Sleeper) - For the first time ever, the waiver weapons section gets to be written BEFORE waivers run, so top waiver target Ameer Abdullah slips in under the percent rostered limit. Abdullah has scored 19.6 and 19.5 PPR points the last two weeks despite the Raiders only scoring a combined 34 points in those two games. The Raiders implied team total against the top ten fantasy RB matchup Saints is slightly over their average, so look forward to Abdullah continuing this surprise bell cow workload in the championship.
Chris’ Pick: IND D/ST, D/ST, IND (38% rostered on Sleeper) - Since this is my last chance to break all of Cam’s rules this season, I figured I would go out with a bang. Not only did I pick a “player” who is over 33% rostered, but I also picked a defense. Keep an eye out for my apology in next week’s newsletter - oh wait! All jokes aside, there is no reason to save waiver priority at this point (you can’t use it next week, after all), so if you don’t have a player you’re looking for and you’re streaming defenses, you should put in a claim for the Colts. While the Colts haven’t necessarily boomed in any given week this year, they’ve provided a strong floor at the D/ST spot - and if there’s ever a game where they would be expected to blow up, it is this one, as the Giants are very (very) bad at football.
The Fun Stuff:
Ben Johnson just had his guys fake stumble to run TE Leak.
The Vikings’ generational run of defensive TD celebration choreography continues with their latest entry, “Camp Skol”
Elite ball placement by Bryce Young with a free rusher in his face.
Bengals defenders could be first-team All Pro in the National Hot Potato League.
NFL players that got married in 2024:
• Christian McCaffrey- RB66
• Brock Purdy- QB13
• Jared Goff - QB7
• Evan Engram - TE26
• Christian Kirk- WR87
• Christian Watson - WR60
• Austin Ekeler- RB32
• TJ Hockenson- TE35
• Tucker Kraft - TE7
• Jake Funk - Waived
Every twelve years, we get a Leftyclipse at QB. Can’t wait to see what 2036 has in store.
Speaking of Tim Tebow, here’s a live look at him and Cam Newton (yes, complete with a ridiculous hat) playing pickleball together.
The Bears have not won a single game since Jay Cutler was arrested. (October 18th)
Denver’s fourth-quarter punt with 4:35 left to go was historically cowardly according to the Surrender Index.
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