Here Comes the Cold Water
Get these summaries delivered to your inbox each week! 👇
Welcome back!
This is the edition where we all become convince that every player is terrible and we should probably just quit fantasy football. Despair not. The hype always bounces back.
Let’s get to the headlines!
Analysis & Hype:
CJ Stroud’s 50.8 Fantasy Points were the most EVER by a Rookie Quarterback. He’s just the 10th QB in league history to score 40+ fantasy points with only 10 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns.
QB’s averaging more rushing YPG than Joshua Dobbs this season:
• Lamar Jackson
• Justin Fields
END LIST.
What do you get when an RB has both the lowest negative run rate and the highest explosive run rate? Jahmyr Gibbs.
Jahmyr Gibbs is first in percent of rushes over 15 yards and percent of rushes to not lose yards.
Over the last two weeks, the Buccaneers have dropped back to pass 90 times. Cade Otton has run a route on 84 of those plays.
Most Passing Yards in the first 10 career games...
• Patrick Mahomes (3,185)
• Justin Herbert (3,015)
• Andrew Luck (2,965)
• Cam Newton (2,885)
• Joe Burrow (2,688)
• Sam Howell / Dak Prescott (2,640)
• CJ Stroud (2,270 in 8 games)
Sam Howell has dropped back to pass 46 more times than any other QB this year. He is on pace to drop back an unfathomable 795 times this season; when Tom Brady set the pass attempts record last season, he dropped back 761 times.
Sam Howell is second in passing yards ahead of Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts
Dalton Kincaid led all qualified tight ends in catch rate coming into the Thursday night game at 90.5%. Catching 10 of 11 actually slightly improved on that.
The Ravens have played two of the NFC's division leaders over the past three weeks: the Lions and Seahawks. They've beaten them by a combined scored of 75-9.
Aaron Jones has never averaged less than 4.6 YPC in a full season in his career. 4-consecutive seasons with 45+ receptions & 60+ targets. 8.6+ fantasy points & 4+ targets in every game except injury-game this year.
Tyson Bagent Total EPA on Sunday: 11.8
Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have both played 75%+ of snaps twice this year.
• Diontae: 23 targets
• Pickens: 10 targets
Rachaad White is tied with Christian McCaffrey with 33 receptions - tied for second among all RBs. White, who is currently RB11 in PPR with 14.3 PPG, is on pace for 70 receptions on the season.
Gus Edwards is the overall fantasy RB1 in total PPR fantasy points over the past three weeks.
Younghoe Koo, with 60 points, has outscored eight different QBs so far this season - six of whom (Zach Wilson, Pickett, Young, Smith, Carr, and Jones) are still starting.
When both have been on the field (145 routes):
• Targets: Tank Dell 29, Nico Collins 28
• Air yards Dell 422, Collins 359
• Receiving yards Collins 388, Dell 322
• PPR points Dell 77.5, Collins 70.8
Texans WR yardage over their past 3 games:
• Nico Collins - 164
• Dalton Schultz - 196
• Tank Dell - 130
• Noah Brown - 247
Highest explosive pass play rate this season (15+ yards):
1. Dolphins (21.9%)
2. 49ers (20.9%)
3. Texans (17.4%)
Zach Charbonnet has outsnapped Kenneth Walker in back-to-back weeks.
Alvin Kamara missed the first three games of the year, but still:
• is the RB6 on the year based on total points (before Week 9).
• has more RB1 games than all RBs other than CMC & ETN (before Week 9).
• has more RB1 games than he had all last season.
Highest PFF grade in the fourth quarter/OT with the score within 7 since 2022:
• Tom Brady 85.4
• Kenny Pickett 85.2 (
• Patrick Mahomes 84.9
Cold Water:
Justin Fields is passing for a higher points per game than Trevor Lawrence.
The Jets are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to have their defense collect 5+ sacks, hold the opponent to under 200 yards and not allow any 25+ yard plays and yet lose the game by 20+ points.
Alvin Kamara’s snap trends the past four games: 80% - 73% - 58% - 49%.
Jamaal Williams over the same period: 0% - 22% - 23% - 43%.
Longest active streaks without scoring more than 20 points:
1. Giants (7)
2. Packers (6)
<nobody else has more than 3>
Carries from inside the 10-yard line this season:
• Tyler Allgeier 10
• Bijan Robinson 2
Targets inside the 20-yard line this season:
• Jonnu Smith 6
• Kyle Pitts 4
Christian Watson has been below 40 receiving yards in 4/5 games this year, has cleared 5 receptions in a game only ONCE in his 19-game NFL career, & has NEVER seen more than 8 targets in an NFL game.
The Cardinals had 58 yards on 48 plays on Sunday.
Clayton Tune’s total EPA against the Browns: -12.9.
Bijan Robinson has as many carries inside the five-yard line as Dare Ogunbowale has made field goals (one).
Here are a few players with more carries inside the five than Bijan Robinson:
• Tank Bigsby
• Joshua Kelley
• Andrew Beck
• Craig Reynolds
• Roschon Johnson
• Damien Harris
• De'Von Achane
• James Cook
In the last 5 seasons, only four teams have scored 8 or fewer offensive touchdowns through 8 team games:
• 2019 Jets
• 2020 Jets
• 2023 Giants
• 2023 Jets
Most Interceptions thrown
• This season - Josh Allen, 9 (tied with others)
• Since 2022 - Josh Allen, 23
• Since 2021 - Josh Allen, 38
• Since 2020 - Josh Allen, 48
• Since 2019 - Josh Allen, 57
• Since 2018 - Josh Allen, 69
Sunday’s 4.4 PPR points was the lowest scoring game for Travis Kelce since Week One of 2018 - over five years ago.
Tony Pollard has zero touchdowns on his past 118 touches.
CJ Stroud has more career touchdown passes than Kenny Pickett. Pickett has exceeded 200 passing yards in nine of his 21 NFL starts; Stroud has five such games in seven starts.
The most popular player on winless teams (13%) is Tee Higgins.
The Fun Stuff:
Triple option but CJ Stroud is two of the three options.
The Raiders broke out the victory cigars after their win over Tommy DeVito.
Still better than Jim Irsay dancing to Meek Mill.
Texans RB Dare Ogunbowale just became the first non-kicker to make a field goal in a regular season game since Wes Welker did it back in 2004.
Scorigami! TB 37 - 39 HOU
Well that’s one reason to trade your RB…
George Kittle and CJ Beathard have matching tattoos… where?
F*** it, Josh Dobbs highlights (from the man himself).
Remember scribbling your homework in the hallway right before class? This is kind of like that, but way more impressive.
Jason Kelce is a finalist for the sexiest man alive by People magazine.
Waiver Weapons - Week Ten:
Kind of a middling week for the squad. Nobody’s picks went off, but all of them filled their role, Taylor Heinicke was QB13, Demario Douglas was WR28, and Chigoziem Okonkwo put up 5.8 PPR points. Not great, but definitely all startable players. This week the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Eagles all are on bye, so undoubtedly a lot of you will be looking for some help - especially in the receiver department. And while Martavis Bryant did just sign with Cowboys, we’re not sure if you’re going to be able to use him as an AJ Brown 1 for 1 replacement just yet.
Camaron’s Pick: Michael Wilson, WR, ARI (20% rostered on Sleeper) - Last year Kyler Murray’s deep ball… It was broken. But honestly, I don’t blame Kyler for it. Michael Wilson with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune was averaging 4.1 targets per game as a rookie. And while a 12% target share may not seem like the most exciting waiver weapon, he is doing this on a ADOT (average depth of target) of 13. Meaning, his average target is 13 yards PAST the line of scrimmage. If Kyler Murray throws 3 deep shots on Sunday against the Browns defense and Michael Wilson catches at least one, we’ve got a good week of points from our early season breakout. Start Michael Wilson over Jahan Dotson, and Tyler Boyd.
Chris’ Pick: Leonard Fournette, RB, BUF (32% rostered on Sleeper) - In case it wasn’t obvious, I’m not telling you to start Fournette this week. You might not start him next week either. Eventually, though, the artist formerly known as “Playoff Lenny” will be promoted from the practice squad (where he resides mainly as a formality) to work his way into the mix with this Bills offense; he probably won’t take much of Cook’s receiving work, but could definitely be a factor in the red zone, and that’s a great role to have in such a high-powered offense (despite how they’ve been playing lately). Josh Allen leads the team in yards per carry and touchdowns, so the Bills are clearly still looking for a spark on the ground, and maybe Fournette - coming in hot off of back-to-back 1,000 (scrimmage) yard seasons - can be just that.
Will’s Pick: Cade Otton, TE, TB (24% rostered on Sleeper) - After a breakout game in week 9 (9 targets, 6 receptions, 2 touchdowns, 100% snap count), Otton is still surprisingly only rostered in 24% of standard leagues. He’s clearly the starter in TB, and his targets have taken a jump in the past three games. Go get him.